To The Moon

The U.S. Office of Government Ethics (OGE) just disclosed that President Donald Trump executed over 21,000 securities trades in 2025, with a total value between $600 million and $1.86 billion. Trump's team claims these assets are independently managed by third-party institutions through "automated, model-based portfolios," placing them in a so-called "blind trust."

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At the same time, the second half of the year is just beginning. The bigger question now is not only what we missed in H1, but also what we are preparing to watch in H2.

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The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.

Higher rates. Stronger dollar. The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ reports FY2026 Q3 earnings after the close on June 24, and the timing couldn't be more important. Just last week, markets were rattled by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut. Global central banks are increasingly leaning toward tightening, while investors have started questioning whether AI valuations have simply gone too far.

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New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first FOMC appearance this week, and his hawkish tone immediately poured cold water on markets, triggering a sharp repricing across global assets. The policy rate itself did not change. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a unanimous 12-0 vote