To The Moon

After the DOJ dropped its investigation into Powell, OIS rates fell, as the market interpreted Warsh’s potential appointment as implying more room for rate cuts this year. But Goldman’s Jan Hatzius team directly stated: “We are less confident in this.” Warsh and Powell share very similar core views on inflation and rate policy.

CGS International forecasts a −3 bps sequential NIM decline, driven by falling SORA and HIBOR. 3-month SORA dropped sharply since the start of the year. DBS had already guided for SORA at 1.25% and two Fed rate cuts in 2026 — any rate path deviation will move guidance.

The gap looks small, but the real “powder keg” is Q4 capex guidance. Citi expects $40B capex guidance, while street consensus is only $16B — a $24B gap. The market is already concerned about Microsoft’s AI spending. If this additional capex is not matched by accelerating Azure growth, the market will punish the stock immediately.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose +4% yesterday, becoming the first company in the world to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, while also breaking out of a 10-month consolidation range.

Intel delivered far stronger-than-expected sales guidance. A year ago, the market was asking if Intel could survive. Now, it’s asking whether Intel has enough capacity. The company stated that June-quarter revenue is expected at $13.8B–$14.8B, versus analyst expectations of $13B.

Normal, everything is good

Google has introduced TPU 8t (training) and TPU 8i (inference): splitting training and inference for the first time TPU 8t: 2.8x performance at the same cost, +124% performance per watt; Supports up to 9,600 chips in a supercomputing cluster TPU 8i: +80% performance; 384MB on-chip SRAM (3x previous generation); Optimized for low-latency multi-agent inference

On Monday, $Apple(AAPL)$ officially announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO effective September 1 this year and transition to the role of Executive Chairman. His successor will be John Ternus, Apple’s current Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering. This is Apple’s first CEO transition since 2011, and the timing—right before earnings season—makes it especially intriguing.

Regarding the options market, a total volume of 55,400,989 contracts was traded, down 36% from the previous trading day. Ondas Holdings shares jumped 7.3% on Monday. Ondas announced its subsidiary 4M Defense received a $10 million order as part of a $50 million demining program for Israel’s eastern border. The contract represents the initial phase of a broader $1.7 billion Eastern Border Security Barrier initiative led by the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Deutsche Bank expects S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth of 19%, the fastest in four years, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Even more unusually, analysts are already forecasting strong growth before earnings season begins — historically rare, as expectations are usually set low first