To The Moon

What actually happened this week is three separate things colliding at once, and they need to be separated before you make any positioning decision. What Actually Caused the Drop The BiCS10 announcement had almost nothing to do with the selloff. The new 10th-generation 3D NAND chip launched on the same day the stock fell 14%. The market did not sell SanDisk because the product is bad. It sold because a stock up 858% year to date has no margin for error when sentiment shifts, regardless of what is on the press release. Three things hit simultaneously. The June jobs report printed 57,000, well below expectations, with prior months revised down 74,000 combined. Weak jobs data raises the question of whether AI capex cycles slow. That question, even when premature, is enough to trigger profit-t

The uncomfortable framing first: the 7.5% drop is not a market error. It is the correct read of a company that just delivered its best quarter ever and then reminded investors that 93% of its current market cap is priced on businesses that still lose money. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026, crushing Wall Street consensus of 406,024 by nearly 18%. Up 25% year over year. Up 34% from Q1. Its strongest second quarter ever and its first year-over-year delivery growth after two consecutive years of declines. Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh against an estimate of 13.3. European markets grew 108% year over year. The car business is recovering. The market does not care about the car business. That is the entire story. The Two-Company Problem Apply a traditional auto sector multip

The question Tiger SG is asking, what did you miss in H1, is more uncomfortable than it looks. Because the answer for most investors is not a single stock. It is a structural misread of how the entire market was rotating underneath the headline numbers. The S&P 500 rose 9.5% in H1 2026, slightly behind its historical annual average of 12.8%. That sounds orderly. It was anything but. Beneath the index, the old winners became the laggards. The hyperscalers, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle, solidly underperformed the market. Microsoft was on track for its worst monthly loss since 2008, down 20% in June alone. Oracle fell 30%. Meanwhile, investors piled into memory chip companies whose products help power AI. Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are now the 10th-, 13th-, and 14th-mo

The number nobody is leading with: reserve interest is 99% of Circle's revenue. Not most of it. Not a lot of it. Ninety-nine percent. That single fact reframes every other sentence in this story. On June 30, Open Standard announced Open USD, or OUSD, backed by over 140 companies including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, BNY, Coinbase, Google, Shopify, American Express, Standard Chartered, DBS, and Ripple. CRCL fell 17.55% on the day, extended losses into Wednesday, and is currently sitting around $65 to $66, down 39% from its IPO high and having just been dropped from five major Russell Growth indexes. The question is not whether OUSD will overtake USDC next year. It almost certainly will not. The question is whether a company that generates 99% of revenue from one mechanism, keeping

MSFT fell another 3.46% today, extending a multi-day losing streak that has now pushed the stock down more than 24% in 2026, potentially its steepest June drop in company history. This is not one bad headline. It is three separate fears compounding on top of each other, and untangling which ones are real versus which are noise is exactly the work that matters right now. Fear One: Capex Is Eating Free Cash Flow Microsoft is on track to spend roughly $190 billion on AI infrastructure in fiscal 2026, up from an earlier estimate near $165 billion. Q3 capex alone came in at $31.9 billion, with Q4 guided above $40 billion. The consequence shows up directly in free cash flow. FCF fell to $15.8 billion in the most recent quarter, down from $20.3 billion a year earlier, against reported net income

Same story. Two completely different stocks. On June 25, Apple raised prices across nearly its entire hardware lineup, citing a memory shortage CEO Tim Cook called a "hundred-year flood." The stock fell 6.12% to close at $275.15, its worst single day since April 2025 and its sharpest fall since the "Liberation Day" tariff shock. Roughly $200 billion in market cap evaporated in one session. The same day, Micron reported the most profitable quarter in its history. That is not a coincidence. It is the same supply shock, hitting two companies on opposite ends of the same chain. What Actually Happened The price hikes were sweeping and immediate. The MacBook Air 13-inch jumped from $1,099 to $1,299. The base MacBook Pro climbed from $1,699 to $1,999. The entry-level MacBook Neo rose from $599 to

This was not a beat. This was a number that rewrote the script. Micron reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.5 billion against a Street estimate of $35.7 billion, a 16% beat. EPS came in at $25.11 versus $20.49 expected. Revenue nearly quadrupled year over year from $9 billion to $42 billion. Gross margin jumped to 84.9%. Cloud memory revenue alone rose over 300% to $13.77 billion. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra delivered the line that moved the entire sector: there is no line of sight to AI memory supply catching up with demand, with shortages expected to persist beyond 2027. The stock closed at $1,048.51 the day before earnings and gapped to $1,182 to $1,196 in the immediate aftermath, a move of 14 to 17%. Reuters tallied the read-through into a roughly $400 billion single-session rally across AI

Tonight, history prints. SPCX begins trading on the Nasdaq at a fixed price of $135 per share, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. That makes it the largest IPO ever, more than double Saudi Aramco's 2019 record. SpaceX debuts as roughly the seventh-largest US company, bigger than Tesla on day one. The demand numbers are absurd. Over $250 billion in subscriptions locked up. Retail alone contributed $70 billion. Allocation rates expected at just 20 to 30%. Over 1,000 institutions fought for shares. Polymarket estimates the IPO creates roughly 4,000 new millionaires inside the company. Oppenheimer says $190. Morningstar says $63. The gap between those two numbers is the entire story. Let's break it down properly. What You Are Actually Buying This is no longer a rocket company.

Here is the most uncomfortable chart in markets right now. The US and Iran are exchanging strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Oil is above $90. By every textbook, gold should be screaming higher. Instead, gold futures touched an intraday low of $4,047, pressing against the psychologically critical $4,000 level, down roughly 27% from its January all-time high of $5,589. Gold's worst monthly drop since 2008 happened in March, during the most serious Middle East escalation in decades. The safe haven failed exactly when it was supposed to work. So before anyone buys this dip, you need to understand why it failed. Because the answer determines whether $4,000 is a generational entry or a trapdoor. Why the Safe Haven Failed The mechanism is counterintuitive but logical once you see it. Wh

Let's establish what actually happened first. Friday was Wall Street's worst day of the year. The Nasdaq fell 4.2% and the S&P 500 dropped 2.6% after May payrolls came in at 172,000, more than double expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate hike and triggering the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's largest single-session decline in months. The trigger was not an earnings miss. Not a product failure. Not a fundamental shift in AI demand. It was a jobs number that spooked rate expectations, and chip stocks happened to be the most crowded trade on the board. MU bore the brunt of it. Then Monday happened. Chip stocks rebounded sharply, led by Marvell and Micron, up almost 9% and 7% respectively. The 3x leveraged chip ETF soared 15.83%. Intel gained 11.19%. NVDA climbed after ann