If you are still worried about whether AI is a foam, yesterday TSMC gave you a loud slap in the face with real gold and silver - not to wake you up, but to plunge you into a crazier bullish dream! The market had originally expected that the semiconductor cycle might peak, but TSMC said it would not only exceed expectations across the board, but also send a shockwave: capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2026 would skyrocket to $52 billion to $56 billion. This not only set a record high, but also directly shattered the rumors of an 'AI demand slowdown'. This is not a big picture; this is an arms race of real gold and silver.
The Anti-monopoly Law stipulates that by implementing monopoly agreements or abusing dominant market position, operators will have their illegal income confiscated and be fined between 1% and 10% of the sales volume of the previous year. Alibaba (09988) once demanded "one out of two" for merchants on the platform due to abusing its dominant market position, was fined 4% of the 2019 turnover by the Municipal Supervisory Administration in April 2021, involving 18.228 billion RMB, setting the highest anti-monopoly fine at the time, and requiring a 3-year anti-monopoly rectification. $阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ $攜程網(TCOM)$
According to performance, in the third quarter of 2025, Ctrip's net operating revenue was 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month on month increase of 24%, indicating a steady growth. But even more striking is its profit performance: the net profit attributable to shareholders in the third quarter reached 19.9 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of about 200%. This profit level has easily surpassed not only JD.com, which has entered the travel abd hotel industry with a high profile (5.3 billion), but also surpassed a large group of companies such as Xiaomi (11.3 billion), and even surpassed the liquor giant Kweichow Moutai, which is known for its high profits. Ctrip seems really evil here
Fear, as a psychosomatic emotion, has entirely to do with the concepts that are activated in your mind. What actually happens in objective reality on some level has nothing to do with you. It's just molecules roaming around. But the extent to which you fear any of those molecules has to do with your perception of that reality. When what you fear is perceived to lie outside of you, it's much harder to conquer because ultimately what is arousing that fear is always a mental construct. It's you, like in the dream. It's just a different part of you. On the other hand, when what you fear is understood to lie within you If we know what we fear of , does it help and get a better investment return say . I have some cash not for stock most of time . too scary for the hard time in advance?
Oracle’s CDS has surged sharply since mid-2025, driven by aggressive AI/cloud capex, rising debt, and execution concerns, with spreads near post-2009 highs and elevated trading volumes. Google’s CDS has modestly widened in 2025 (led by AI capex concerns) but stayed well contained versus peers, reflecting its strong balance sheet, robust FCF, and top-tier credit profile. Relative Context Google CDS remains among the lowest for large tech, reflecting its: - Net cash position (vs net debt at peers) - Diversified revenue streams - Strong free cash flow generation - Conservative leverage metrics goog are brilliant The market is not confident to Oracle. Is it risky?