To The Moon

Watch the flow of money into the options market, and the single-day call purchase of retail investors surged to nearly 9 million contracts, up 350% since the March low. This extremely bullish derivative speculation is essentially a group's compensatory behavior towards 'FOMO'. Individual investors refuse to believe in the destructive power of the high-interest environment, trying to use the last liquidity to absorb the high valuation of technology stocks.

The investment logic in the mainland technology sector has undergone a fundamental shift, which is expected to have an impact on the market. The central government ordered the cancellation of a $2bn deal for Meta to buy Chinese AI start-up Manus, and told many AI companies including Moonshot AI and Stepfun that they are not allowed to accept US capital; and TikTok's parent company, Byte Dance， is not allowed to sell second-hand shares to US investors without government approval. There are signs that the US venture capital (primarily from pension funds and university endowments) which used to be actively involved in financing China's technology industry will be subject to more severe restrictions. The uncertainty over approval of tech companies moving from market-driven to government approv

TSM president tooks the topic and raised the perspective to the computing needs of the entire era. He pointed out that the number of tokens consumed is hopping geometrically from the query model to the instruction and action model of agent AI. This shift in underlying logic creates a huge rigid demand for advanced silicon chips.

$英特爾(INTC)$  (Bear Case): The transformation costs are extremely high. The huge loss and negative free cash flow on GAAP's books indicate that its financial constitution remains fragile. The wafer foundry business is still a long way from truly high yield and large-scale profitability, and it remains unclear whether future capital expenditures will drag the balance sheet down

$英特爾(INTC)$  ( Bull Case): The rise of edge AI (Edge AI) and AI agents has brought back computational demands from pure GPUs to heterogeneous architectures with 'CPU + GPUs. Intel's advanced packaging capacity became a scarce resource in the market. With the strategic support of the US government, its geopolitical moat is irreplaceable.

Intel is experiencing painful but necessary "breaking the cocoon". The current surge is a violent repair of valuations from extreme pessimism to a reasonable average. Instead of being the lumbering giant that was slammed by AMD, it's repositioning itself as a key hub of the global technology map using domestic US production capacity and AI margin computing power demand. This is a high risk, high explosive power of geopolitics and computing power dual concept stocks.

$英特爾(INTC)$  The market's craze for Intel is not blindly believing that its subcontracting technology has surpassed TSMC, but rather a fundamental shift in market pricing logic from the GPU-only CPU revival driven by AI Agent. Human society needs not only AI models to generate, but also AI agents to perform, manipulate and retrieve, giving the CPU an irreplaceable hub.

$英特爾(INTC)$  Intel also played several trump cards: signed a plural year contract with Google, Xeon 6 entered its infrastructure, was selected as host CPU for NVIDIA DGX Rubin NVL8 systems, and even aligned with SpaceX, Tesla and xAI. This shows that Intel is no longer fighting alone, but is embedding itself at the bottom of the entire AI ecosystem.

Tesla's post-performance tumbled 3.6% as Musk announced that it would burn more than $25 billion this year, putting negative pressure on short-term cash flows. The cloud giants are stuck in the prisoner's dilemma: Investing in AI now might get punished by shareholders for not paying enough short-term returns, but if not, you might be eliminated entirely

The market doesn't care about the smoke of the Middle East, and capital greed and fear are all focused on AI infrastructure bets. The migration from software to hardware is reshaping the power structure of the entire U.S. stock market