To The Moon

Software stocks are facing a survival challenge for AI, which is a structural revaluation of value.

The share price of traditional professional services/software companies such as Thomson Reuters, RELX and Wolters Kluwer have all gone down. Market interpretation: Previously, the market thought that AI would make these companies more efficient (lido); now, the market believes that if AI can directly help lawyers review contracts and prepare reports for accountants, who would need to subscribe to these expensive traditional software?

After the recent wave of sell-offs, the precious metal market has swept away a large number of over-leveraged futures newcomers in the short term. With no competitors to sell, it is expected that the market will soon return to order. Compared with the larger global bond and stock markets, the precious metal futures market has always been a niche market involving miners and professional speculators. I do not believe that this sell-off will pose a systemic risk to the global capital market

The previous generation was used to shaking their heads and sighing at the 24/7 "casino" in the cryptocurrency exchange, denouncing it as the depravity of the younger generation. However, this moral superiority overshadows a deeper and more ironic economic reality: when the traditional path of wealth accumulation—the postwar myth of hard work, savings, home purchase, retirement—has been completely shattered by the inflation and asset bubble—speculation is no longer gambling, but the only rational choice. When hard work fails to afford a house for a lifetime, throwing savings into what is called "speculation" platforms can instead seem like a well-thought-out risk hedge.

The main logic behind the recent surge in gold prices is de dollarization and risk aversion. I do not believe that Warsh 's appointment as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve can reverse the global trend of de dollarization. Therefore, I still view the decline in gold prices as just a normal adjustment after a sharp rise, and if the drop in gold prices leads to a major adjustment in gold mining stocks, I think it is a buying opportunity.

Kevin Warsh, a defender of the free market and a master of currency, believes that prices (including interest rates) are the most important signals in the market and that governments should not intervene. He has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve for its long-term quantitative easing policy, artificially lowering long-term debt rates, essentially alternative price controls. He believes that central banks should only enter the market as the last lender of last resort only when the market is extremely ineffective, and in other cases, they should allow the market to operate freely. The price discovery process should not be curbed. From this perspective, when the stock market plunges, you cannot expect the Wash-led Federal Reserve to provide the Fed Put (taking steps to stabilize the mark

The market tells us that the era of burning money and storytelling is over, and that of making money for shareholders has returned. Microsoft's fall is a wake-up call

Meta has demonstrated with its performance that advertising revenue can cover AI expenditures;

The market questions how fast AI is burning money, yet it cannot see an equal revenue explosion.

This means that the market's valuation fault tolerance has dropped to zero. Investors are not impressed by the "story of the future," they want to see the current cash flow. That's why Microsoft's market capitalization was cut by $357 billion in a single day just because of its high capital expenditure (CapEx) and slowing cloud growth, and its stock price plummeted by 10%.