To The Moon

Call Options volume has already taken up as much as 70% of the options market, writing the highest record in the last four years. From the beginning of April to the present, that percentage has surged by 25 percentage points in just two months, breaking the record for the most dense two-month growth rate in history, and breaking through the short-lived high at the end of 2025. On the extended time axis, the average call Options over the last two years was just 55%. More horrifying than that, the overall value of Call Options in the S&P 500 as a percentage of its total market value has soared to a historically rare 4.1 times, doubling in two months. The herd instincts of group behavior and the desire for quick enrichment make retail investors and dynamic chase institutions crazily lever

$香港交易所(00388)$  

$香港交易所(00388)$  

$香港交易所(00388)$  

$香港交易所(00388)$  

US stock market "Kings" at risk of "Aces" anti-kill The Federal Reserve's signal is no longer implicit. Inflation remains too high, and the fantasy of interest rate cuts should not be over-grown; if prices go in the wrong direction again, raising interest rates would not be a taboo. This is not the routine "data dependence" of central bankers, but rather the cold water on the market. The annual increase rate of CPI remains high, the stickiness of core inflation has not dissipated, and prices have been above the 2% target for many years. Add to that the Middle East is recurrent, and once oil prices rise, it will seep into the economic capillaries along the way of transport, wages, manufacturing and service prices.

Restriction is neither useless nor decisive. It adds cost and time delay to China, but cannot stop a country with 7 nanometer processes and abundant energy from brute force to build competitive models. Huang chose to emphasize only the latter, because it would be good for his business interests

Warning of Space Heat: Some institutions take Tesla as a lesson: the electric vehicle sector generally surged around the time Tesla was included in the S&P 500 in 2020, but smaller EV companies experienced a sharp pullback after a big surge. SpaceX's high valuation will indeed drive the space sector's "concept premium," but the market will ultimately test every company's fundamentals

The short selling ratio of the median 500 stocks has climbed to 3.0%, the highest level since 2012, exactly double the number of 2020 pandemic. More notably, the 10% of the stocks that were most shorted in the S&P 500 have seen their short ratio surge to 8.0%, the highest since 2018. Both indicators have surpassed the level of the bear market after the burst of the science and technology bubble in 2000. What does this represent? The market is not monolithic. The index is hitting new highs, but there are plenty of professional funds shorting and hedging at the individual stock level. This indicates that institutional investors are highly skeptical about the sustainability of the current rise - they follow the rise and are too afraid to be absent, while buying insurance crazily.

The US military launched a self-defense strike on southern Iran Monday night. The targets included missile launch positions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard ships attempting to lay mines, which the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) called these actions defensive actions during the ceasefire. However, U.S. futures jumped sharply on Monday, as investor sentiment improved as the US and Iran reached a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The picture is dire: the battlefield seems to be firing, while the market is celebrating peace.