To The Moon

When the three-month realized correlation between Apple and the Nasdaq-100 flips negative for the first time in decades, it's a flashing neon sign that the underlying plumbing of the market has fractured. it's a victory born of peer weakness rather than explosive top-line reinvention. When the broader index gets dragged down by growth disappointments elsewhere, Apple acts as a shock absorber. It absorbs the defensive bids simply because the alternatives—overleveraged AI plays or cyclical tech names—look structurally riskier at that exact moment. ​It's less about Apple rewriting the playbook and more about the rest of the index giving it the room to stand out by default

Wall Street estimates that the issuance scale of AI-related debt could reach $4 trillion over the next four years. This number alone will not trigger a systemic crisis—the global bond market has a depth of 40 to 60 trillion enough to absorb it—but a large increase in supply is bound to widen credit spreads.

The market has begun to distinguish between "AI beneficiaries" and "AI funders." The former can drive stock prices, while the latter is regarded as a dilution risk.

As of July this year, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle collectively issued $194 billion in bonds—compared to $108 billion for the entire year of 2025. The reliance on financing for AI infrastructure is rising sharply, while the appetite in the credit market is shrinking.

The Financial Times of the UK reported last week that the U.S. special envoy to the United Nations stated bluntly that Washington is "ready to fight Iran for at least another year."

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WONG :「 The demand for capital is much greater than the availability of capital. 」

France has little room left for extravagance. According to data from France's National Institute of Statistics and Economics (INSEE), the government deficit will account for 5.1% of GDP in 2025, and the accumulated public debt will reach 119% of GDP by the end of the second quarter of 2026. The former represents the annual revenue and expenditure gap, while the latter represents outstanding debts. These are not entirely caused by welfare expenditures, but continuing to borrow money to maintain commitments will only further reduce public services such as schools.

inevitable