To The Moon

The stock market dropped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it was lowering short-term interest rates. The big surprise is the Fed expects inflation and unemployment to both rise in 2025.What happened to the booming economy we were promised?The truth is, there are a lot of unknowns and a lot of factors outside of the Fed’s control. Tariffs could cause more inflation. AI could cause more efficiency…and layoffs. Fewer regulations could spur economic activity…and jobs. Credit card debt is rising. And on, and on.No one knows exactly what will happen. And that uncertainty (periodically) causes a panic in the market. This panic appears to have only lasted a few hours, but the next one could last for months.In many ways, the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place trying to figure o

1. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ Selling shovels during the autonomous vehicle gold rush.Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Alphabet's investments are up more than 10x in the past decade.Image3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ As long as the story is about the future, Tesla never needs to deliver in the present. This is Elon's brilliance. He keeps moving the goalpost and never has to deliver solar+storage+EV (2016), 50% EV growth (2020), FSD (2016-present), and on and on.4. $Apple(AAPL)$ Who is buying a no-growth company at an earnings yield half of treasuries?Image

Today’s deep dive is on $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ and $Uber(UBER)$ . This is an unusual spotlight because it highlights two companies, but given the similarities in their business models, I think it’s appropriate to cover them in a basket. I’ll explain below why I think owning both is the proper strategy, rather than betting on one over the other.Started in 2009, Uber offers ride-sharing, food delivery, and freight services to businesses and consumers around the world.Started in 2007 and rebranded as Lyft in 2013, Lyft offers ride-sharing and some food delivery in the United States and Canada.Why Stock Lyft and Uber? In ~100 WordsRide-sharing is a “winner-take-most” market that lives by the laws of the smiling c

This week, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ announced Gemini 2.0 and a flurry of new AI features, including AI agents that can take control of Chrome and surf the web for you and a deep research AI.As I’ve explored the world of AI, I keep coming back to 2 simple questions:How is any breakthrough differentiated from the competition?How can an AI startup (even OpenAI) disrupt or overcome an incumbent offering similar capabilities with vastly more distribution?Google doesn’t seem to be falling into the disruption trap.Google has arguably the best models today and, BY FAR, the best infrastructure and distribution of the major AI players. And it’s not close.If Google can continue this momentum in AI, it cou

1. $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ Reminder that in November 2021 Cloudflare traded for 115x revenue and was growing at 50%+/year. Revenue is up 140% since then but the stock is down 42%. Price matters.Image2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Name a stock that outperformed the market if you bought at 65.7x sales or higher. Go!ImagePS: It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failure when it arrives.Learn from it.And try again.

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ I spend a lot of time trying to learn about the companies disrupting Google.Every discussion seems to come back to 2 things:1. Google has the most/best consumer touch points.2. Google has the best infrastructure.I like it at 20x forward earnings. KISSImage2. $Apple(AAPL)$ This business trades for 40x earnings...Image3. $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ The valuation is making my head spin, but how do you sell this business?Image4. $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ SoundHound has a $5.5 billion valuation, is losing money like c

At any time since 2007, when $Netflix(NFLX)$ ’s streaming business launched, a market-crushing thesis could have been “streaming is the future.”I started buying shares of $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ in 2014 on the simple idea that every police officer should have a body camera and all of that data will likely end up in the cloud (Axon’s cloud). There were bumps along the way, but that simple high-level thesis led to incredible returns.“I like my $Apple(AAPL)$ iPhone” was a pretty good investment thesis going back as far as 2007.I remember sitting in my apartment in 2007 listening to a friend rave about $Lululemon Athletica

Autonomous driving will be top of mind in 2025.Autonomous driving is one of the themes for which I’ve invested heavily in the Asymmetric Portfolio. The second stock I covered was $General Motors(GM)$ , but it wasn’t GM the manufacturer that I was interested in, Cruise is where the 10x opportunity lies.I’m working on a long report on autonomous driving that I’ll publish early next month, but in the meantime, it’s worth updating just how quickly this industry is moving. Autonomous vehicles are here. The business is scaling. And everyone involved is moving as fast as they can to grab a position in the market.Waymo Takes a Big LeadRight now, no company comes close to Waymo (owned by $Alphabet(GOOG)$

One of the best ways for a company to build a strong moat around their business is to commoditize their complements. In other words, increase your power in the market by making sure every supplier, every competitor, and every customer is a commodity.A great business is the most valuable point in a supply chain and there’s rarely more than one point of high value in an industry. If one supplier or customer becomes too large or important, it diminishes your power in the market, and the point of value shifts to that power player.We are seeing these strategic battles play out in artificial intelligence where $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , OpenAI, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ This growth chart isn't exciting, but growing revenue double-digits at this scale is extremely impressive.Image2. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ USDC market cap is up over $5 billion in the past month.Image3. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood's HOOD Incredible Momentum ContinuesRobinhood held its first Investor Day today and released some November data early. Just astounding growth. This is from the filing:ImageAssets Under Custody grew to more than $190 billion (up over 15% from October 2024, up over 100% year-over-year), driven in part by customer Net Deposits of over $5 billion in Novem