To The Moon

There are values in any market.At times like this, they’re just hard to find.We’re in the “hard zone” today as the stock market bounces near all-time highs, and FOMO (fear of missing out) has hit everything from AI stocks to meme coins.I’m seeing fewer opportunities today than I have in years, even in companies I like long-term. The business matters, but as a buyer, so does the price I pay.But some values do exist.There’s one simple way to know if a stock is a great value for long-term investors. Is management aggressively buying back shares or not? If they are, it’s time to pay attention, and I’ll give two great examples of using buybacks as a weapon against an undervalued stock.The Dangers of High ValuationsLet’s start on the bubbly side.Stocks that get the most attention in the media ar

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Based on trends so far in Q4, Coinbase will report the best trading quarter since December 2021.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Financial services are growing at a 100%+ pace right now. What's to stop the momentum?ImageAt the same time, I'm not optimistic about cable's future.$Comcast(CMCSA)$ It's hard to overstate how quickly cable is declining.I think fall 2025, when ESPN goes over the top, will be the end.ImageInvesting Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors.Image

A key to my bullishness on $Walt Disney(DIS)$ is the theory ESPN (in which Disney has an 80% stake) will win the sports streaming market by a mile. Streaming follows the smiling curve, which I’ve laid out below, and there will likely only be one or two winners.In sports, it may be ESPN and everyone else way behind.I think streaming ultimately looks like this: $Netflix(NFLX)$ : General entertainment streamer with something for almost everyone across the globe. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ : Leading position in niche markets of sports, kids’ entertainment, and differentiated content (Disney animation, Marvel, Star Wars, etc). These three large niches and they’ll be bundled tog

Has any stock over a $10 billion market cap had positive returns for the 24 months after trading for 100x revenue? $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ crashedAny others? If $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ gets there it may be an asymmetric short opportunity. 🤷How do you find great investment ideas? 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.

Before I get to what I’m doing, let’s look at why I’m not particularly excited about this market overall. The P/E ratio of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ is higher than at any point outside of the 2000 dot com crash, the financial crisis, or COVID.There are currently 16 stocks with a market cap of over $5 billion and a price-to-sales multiple over 30, including the most valuable company in the world. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $Texas Pacific Land(TPL)$

Is the $7,500 tax credit a big deal for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? Model Y Lease PricingWith Tax Credit & "Gas Savings": $481/moWithout credit and savings: $750/moA 56% increase! Yikes!Some of my best investments have been undervalued because investors thought, " $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Will Crush Them". The next decade will be a story of scaling niche businesses profitably, not giant tech companies doing everything.Buy stocks with upside you don't have to pay for.

Everyone is freaking out about $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ getting into telehealth today.I think Amazon will fail, but it's important to explain why.Vertical vs HorizontalIndustries often shift between vertical business models winning to horizontal business models winning and back and forth.Why did $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ beat $Intel(INTC)$ ? TSMC was horizontal and Intel was vertical.Why did $Apple(AAPL)$ beat $Microsoft(MSFT)$ in mobile? Apple is vertical and Microsoft is a horizontal services company.We can even go back to $IBM(IB

1. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ 33.2% growth in Q3 (not seen on this chart yet) continues an incredible pace of revenue growth for On Holding.Image2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify is the 1st stock I covered and the largest holding in the Asymmetric Portfolio. If this holds I’m going to need to celebrate.Image3. $Shopify(SHOP)$ I'm happy for the Shopify shareholders, but I can't get excited about paying 14x sales for the stock.Image4. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ Mgmt: Operating cash flow improved 31% Quarter-Over-Quarter (QoQ) reflecting improvement in margins, working capital efficiency, and leverage of existing inventory.Real

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Absolutely crazy Coinbase is up 375% since I wrote the Coinbase Spotlight and added it to the Asymmetric Portfolio. 3 stocks are now up 2x or more in the portfolio with a couple of others getting close.2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Palantir PLTR is trading for 49x sales and I'm worried my stock jumping 20% to a 3.5x P/S multiple is overvalued? This is why "NOT SELLING" is a framework of Asymmetric Investing.

The reason long-term thinking is important is we have no advantage over the hedge funds and day traders who think in hours, days, and weeks. Even Wall Street analysts and mutual fund managers have a hard time thinking further out than a quarter or two because that’s where their financial incentives lie.Thinking in decades allows us to tune out the noise. And elections are noise!This graphic from Schwab and Morningstar shows just how much $10,000 invested in 1948 would have returned under only Republican presidents, Democrat presidents, or staying invested 100% of the time.Staying invested rather than speculating on the market’s moves is almost always the right answer. It is simple but effective.The Obvious Answer Is Often WrongWhat’s wild is how often the obvious election narrative is wron