Travis Hoium

    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·14:57

      Disruption Meets Risk: $HIMS Takes on $NVO/$LLY, $MGM Cuts Shares

      $HIMS is shaking up the pharma space, challenging $NVO’s patents in a high-stakes bet that could disrupt the weight loss market. Both $NVO and $LLY face significant downside risk if litigation goes against them, making this a fascinating clash between nimble disruptors and Big Pharma. Meanwhile, $MGM is quietly reducing its float, repurchasing 5.5% of shares in a single quarter, signaling confidence amid broader market volatility. Investors should watch legal battles and corporate capital moves alike for asymmetric opportunities. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ My gut feeling is that $HIMS is playing the ultimate disruption card. They’re pushing so hard Novo sues, which ultimately leads to Novo defending — and potentially invalidating — the
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      Disruption Meets Risk: $HIMS Takes on $NVO/$LLY, $MGM Cuts Shares
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·02-05 10:55

      Google: The AI King

      In 2015, Sam Altman and Elon Musk founded OpenAI in part out of fear that $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ would dominate AI if someone else didn’t get there first. When the ChatGPT moment hit in November 2022, the conventional wisdom was that Google’s moment of disruption had arrived. The company was behind in AI models, didn’t have compelling products, and was slow and unimaginative in releasing products. The criticisms were valid at the time. What Google did have was infrastructure and distribution. If it caught up on models and product, the threat could be snuffed out. The question was: Could ChatGPT become the go-to application for artificial intelligence before Google turned the search bar, Chrom
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      Google: The AI King
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·02-04 09:09

      $NFLX, $NVO, $HIMS: Lessons on Demand, Scale, and Market Winners

      The market favors companies that own demand and scale. $NFLX shows how dominating customer choice beats short-term profits, while $NVO faces pressure from competition and falling prices—highlighting the advantage of demand aggregators like $HIMS. 1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ I didn't understand Netflix $NFLX 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is
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      $NFLX, $NVO, $HIMS: Lessons on Demand, Scale, and Market Winners
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·02-03

      Has a Market Meltdown Begun?

      The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are within shouting distance of their all-time highs, but it doesn’t feel that way for most investors. The market’s gains have been concentrated in some huge moves in semiconductor and mining-related stocks. On the other side of the market is the decline in stocks like $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ that seem like rock-solid growth companies. I think there are discounts forming in certain areas of the market, although the ride will likel
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      Has a Market Meltdown Begun?
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-31

      NFLX, TSLA, GOOG & OpenAI - Innovation and Disruption Timelines

      In 1997, 20% of U.S. households had access to the internet. A dozen years later, owners of iconic newspapers like the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and many more had filed for bankruptcy. Disruption came quickly for newspapers once publishing online became trivial. Contrast that to streaming, which has taken much longer to disrupt traditional TV and film media. $Netflix(NFLX)$ launched streaming in 2007, and 19 years later, one of the companies that should have been disrupted the most, $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ , is being acquired by Netflix itself for $83 billion. Disruption happens at different speeds in different industries, and there are good reasons why. Different indu
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      NFLX, TSLA, GOOG & OpenAI - Innovation and Disruption Timelines
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-30

      $RIVN’s $6.6B Question Could Decide Its Fate

      $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Two really bad news items recently related to Rivian. 1. The Trump Administration cancelling DOE loans. Rivian was approved for $6.6B to build Georgia just before Biden left office, but still doesn't have the $$$. Will it ever get it? 2. Rivian's autonomy product was well received, but $General Motors(GM)$ just announced a similar sensor and technology product launching in 2028. GM will have scale in autonomy before Rivian does, so Rivian's in-house development will once again be up against a competitor with more scale over which to spread development costs. If #1 gets cancelled, Rivian is doomed. Even if it doesn't, #2 probably means Rivian won't have much upside in autonomy
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      $RIVN’s $6.6B Question Could Decide Its Fate
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-29

      HIMS stays solid TSLA faces profit pressure

      1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Volatility is the price we pay for market-beating returns. We're seeing the downside of that volatility today, but the long-term fundamental trends in revenue and margins are exactly what we want to see. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ These charts are telling. 1. Tesla's operating profit is collapsing. 2. Analysts (and investors) continue to over-estimate the company's revenue growth...which is now negative. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports
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      HIMS stays solid TSLA faces profit pressure
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-28

      When EV Credits Vanish, GM Holds,Tesla and Rivian Don’t

      $General Motors(GM)$ CEO Mary Barra is the best CEO in the auto business. This shouldn’t be a controversial statement. Strategically, operationally, and politically (important these days) she’s knocking it out of the park. Investors in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ should pay attention to this detail. The elimination of regulatory credits is going to be a small tailwind for Detroit given their size, but a HUGE headwind for Tesla and Rivian because it’s 100% margin. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
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      When EV Credits Vanish, GM Holds,Tesla and Rivian Don’t
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-27

      Forests, Trees, and Hims & Hers' Decline

      I’m going to use $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ as a bit of a stand-in for the volatility we often see with growth companies. But the same could be said about $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ $Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$, and many more.When companies are growing quickly, there can be wild variations in a stock price as investors adjust their expectations up or down. Long-term, the ride seems smooth, but short-term, the difference between a few percentage points in growth here and there can seem enormous and cause huge reactions in a stock.$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ has compo
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      Forests, Trees, and Hims & Hers' Decline
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-24

      The Hidden Reasons Autonomous Vehicles Are a 10x Opportunity for Uber and Lyft

      What if a ride were always available within 60 seconds of when you need it? What if that ride was clean, warm, played your music, and cost just $1 per mile? In 2026, we’re moving closer to that reality with autonomous vehicles. Waymo is operating in 6 cities and is quickly increasing its fleet, Zoox has launched fully autonomous vehicles in Las Vegas, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ a’s robotaxis are now operating without a driver (there is a chase vehicle), and companies like WeRide, $Volkswagen AG(VLKAY)$ (via Mobileye), $Baidu(BIDU)$ , and more are planning to remove safety drivers this year. I continue to believe this is one of the biggest opportunities for investors t
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      The Hidden Reasons Autonomous Vehicles Are a 10x Opportunity for Uber and Lyft
       
       
       
       

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