To The Moon

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming

Finding 10x investments isn’t about running the best DCF model or guessing next quarter’s earnings better than the next guy. History shows that the market’s biggest winners have gotten their strategy right early and simply ridden massive waves to incredible heights. Maybe they didn’t know what they were doing at the time (ex. Google’s founders didn’t know what they had on their hands early on, whereas $Uber(UBER)$ founder Travis Kalanick did), but we can learn from the last two decades of investing to project out the next 10x (100x?) stocks. Today, I’m going to dive into how we should understand changes in discovery and distribution should be understood by investors and why, sometimes, going for scale above all else is the best strategy. Pre-Inter

In hindsight, the recession in 2008 was obvious. Consumers had gotten over-leveraged, and rising oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ prices eventually put too much pressure on the consumer to handle. Oil wasn’t the direct cause, but it was a sign of the peak, a push over the edge, whatever you want to call it. The parallels to this moment don’t end there. What else peaks in early 2008? You guessed it…jobs. Higher gasoline prices aren’t the cause of a recession, per se, but when they spike, it can lead to economic catastrophe. According to a BLS report on 2024 consumer spending, transportation accounts for 17.0% of the average consumer’s bills. If gasoline prices rise by 100%, that number may rise to 20% or more. And then compromises start

The $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ thesis laid out in the spotlight article is relatively simple. Build scale in the language market Expand into new education modalities (language specialist to education generalist) Chess and math are early examples Bundle growing content suite for one simple, compelling monthly fee Democratize education at scale This would create a flywheel in education as more scale gives Duolingo the economics to develop more modalities, which would make the bundle more valuable, and so on. It’s similar to what $Netflix(NFLX)$ did with content, providing more content value for subscribers over time. But there’s a conundrum for Duolingo economically. It could run a profitable business today wit

Peptides could be a new multi-billion-dollar market for companies like Hims & Hers $HIMS. What are these peptides, and what do they do? Here's what you need to know about all 19 peptides in question today, 14 of which may soon be legal to compound (according to RFK) 👇 1. BPC-157 Note: These infographics are made by Gemini and are for informational purposes only. 2. Thymosin Alpha-1 (Ta1) 3. Thymosin Beta-4 Fragment (TB-500) 4. AOD-9604 5. CJC-1295 6. Ipamorelin Acetate 7. Selank Acetate (TP-7) 8. Semax 9. GHK-Cu (Copper Peptide) 10. GHRP-2 11. GHRP-6 12. Epitalon 13. KPV 14. Kisspeptin-10 15. Melanotan II 16. MOTS-c 17. PEG-MGF (Pegylated Mechano Growth Factor) 18. Emideltide (DSIP - Delta Sleep-Inducing Peptide) 19. Cathelicidin LL-37 For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and

Why have SaaS and growth stocks taken it on the chin in 2026 while boring businesses like Walmart and Coca-Cola rise? It’s all about math. I’m not going to make you do math today, but I do want to show why the math behind analyst models is driving the market to strange places so far this year. Terminal Value Explained In Re-Rating the Stock Market, I wrote about how changing expectations for future free cash flow can cause investors to value stocks differently. What that article missed was the tangible calculations behind how investors think about valuing companies…at least on an academic level. In theory, stocks are valued based on the present value of all future free cash flows. That’s an easy statement to make, but it’s fraught with assumptions that I generally think are BS because we c

This group reflects a market that is sharply distinguishing between disciplined execution and fragile narratives. FIGS, Inc. has rewarded patience with a 130% gain, while Tesla, Inc. continues to navigate uneven growth momentum. Netflix, Inc. strengthened its strategic flexibility by avoiding a leveraged deal with Warner Bros. Discovery, preserving balance sheet health. Meanwhile, DraftKings Inc. demonstrates that scale and revenue growth alone do not ensure sustainable profitability. 1. $FIGS, Inc.(FIGS)$ Sometimes, a thesis takes a while to play out. Figs is now up 130% in the Asymmetric Portfolio. That's a surprise to me too! 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA growth has been negative 4 of the last 8 quarter

As humans, we have a tendency to imagine a world that doesn’t yet exist and simplify how easy it will be to get to this imaginary place. In reality, change happens slowly on a day-to-day basis. Yes, a lot has changed in the last few decades, but in many ways, nothing has changed at all. In 1995, Bill Gates became the richest man in the world, a title he’s within striking distance of holding today. In the 1940s, $Coca-Cola(KO)$ became a consumer staple drink, a place it still holds today. $Nike(NKE)$ was the “IT brand” when I was a kid, and 40 years later, Jordan (a Nike creation and brand) is the “IT brand” for my son. $General Motors(GM)$ and

Duolingo trades near $4.6B market cap with $1.1B cash, giving ~12x adjusted EBITDA, highlighting long-term growth potential despite high SBC spend. On Holding faces currency headwinds ahead of its earnings report but remains a top brand in the portfolio for compounding returns. 1. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Duolingo $DUOL has $1.1 billion in cash and if the ~21% drop holds would trade for about a $4.6 billion market cap. That's an enterprise value of $3.5 billion, or 12x adjusted EBITDA. This is still a growth company sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term growth! My biggest problem right now is spending 15% of revenue on SBC. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ My #2 holding in the Asymmetric Portfolio repo

We're selling consumer spending and credit risk but buying big pharma because people with no money are going to buy GLP-3s? Ohh, and YAY Walmart $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ ! And energy and telecom are up because something, something people are going to drive their cars in default to jobs they don't have. BTW, the AI disrupting the economy is BS and semiconductor stocks are all doomed. But seriously, more drugs! Did I make sense of today's market? $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$