To The Moon

The market hasn’t been happy with $Portillo’s Inc.(PTLO)$ ’s over the past year and I think the blame squarely falls on two factors.Same-store sales growth has slowed and was slightly negative in Q1 2024.The stock was overvalued and is now falling closer to value territory.Now that we have a few more quarters under our belts and the overhang from Berkshire Partners is nearly gone, it’s time to take a fresh look at Portillo’s and its valuation.If you know Portillo’s or understand the cult following it has, you’ll see why I see this stock as an incredible value for long-term investors.Restaurant Ups and DownsInvestors were focused on the declining same-store sales comp in the first quarter of 2024 and I never like to see a drop in sales. But this wa

As we’ve gone through earnings season and more economic data has come out, I have been surprised to see the market react so positively.Consumer sentiment (blue line below) fell to the lowest point in six months (67.4 which is not on this chart) last week and is at a level comparable to March 2008 and April 2020.Both manufacturing (orange line below) and non-manufacturing (purple line below) surveys indicate producers are anticipating a contraction in the economy.I can’t read every earnings report, but I’ve seen a lot of companies give relatively weak guidance for the second quarter and the rest of 2024, especially companies that sell high-ticket items.And yet the stock market continues to rise.Stocks mostly rose to end the week, with the Dow extending its winning streak to eight days.Consu

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ can't acquire $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ so they're partnering on more and more content distribution.This is a fascinating turn of events and is incredibly good for Disney.Streaming will only have 1 or 2 destinations (apps) people will access and pay long-term. $Netflix(NFLX)$ is one. Disney wants to be the other.Disney+/Hulu/ESPN was a good bundle but add in Max and it's a no-brainer for most customers. Not a perfect comparison, but Disney's scale in streaming is getting close to Netflix. With ESPN going over the top in fall 2025 and Max joining the bundle options in summer 2024, I could see Disney generating more streaming revenue than Netfl

1. $Crocs(CROX)$ Work From Home = Wear More Crocs Image2. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ YOLO trading was a boon until the market dropped in 2022. Is this time different/more sustainable?Image3. $Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ Wouldn't be surprising to see 2024 be a breather year for Celsius' growth. Sell-in (retailers just filling inventory) can be a huge boon to growth initially but it creates a growth lag as sales move to natural restocking of sell-thru (sales to end customers).Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1788660660831728076

1. $Shopify(SHOP)$ Here's a theme I think we're going to see over the next few years that I call, "Great Business, Terrible Stock".Paying 14x sales for a company growing at 90% is fine, but when growth falls to 20% the multiple eventually drops.Image2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ What happens when you introduce a lower-cost vehicle under the same brand? Cannibalization!Image3. $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ The stock may be down, but find comfort in a 41% FCF margin over the past year and $800 million in interest income from cash just chillin' on the balance sheet.https://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1788265025343250885

In the $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Spotlight, I laid out the long-term vision I see for Disney:Parks and Experiences are the foundation and a cash machine to fund a move into streaming.Linear TV will provide scale and cash flow but is ultimately a dying business.Streaming is the future and Disney can build a #1 or #2 position in the market.Owned content (Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, Disney Animation) provides a tentpole for Disney’s streaming business.General entertainment (Hulu) fills in general entertainment or filler content.ESPN rounds out the streaming bundle as the “must-have” sports streamer through ESPN over the top (coming in fall 2025)If the strategy comes together, Disney could monetize through subscriptions and advertising to have compelling price

Apparently there’s an $Apple(AAPL)$ event happening right now? This shows why I’m selling. I used to watch these events religiously. Now, they’re mostly meaningless. Feels like there’s a paradigm shift coming, albeit slowly.Apple's P/S CAGR since 2016 is 13.4% and its P/E CAGR is 10.1%. ImageSentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad.https://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1787853346843316316

A barrage of earnings reports this week sent the stock market into a frenzy. You can see below the reaction was negative for most of the week but $Apple(AAPL)$ ’s report after the market on Thursday sent stocks higher Friday along with a weak jobs report.On the jobs front, a weaker economy is bad for growth and earnings, but traders overlooked that, hoping interest rate cuts are cut by the Federal Reserve later this year. That doesn’t make much sense if you’re a long-term investor like me, but that’s how the market thinks short-term.As for Apple’s report, I’ll get to that below.Why Do Companies Buy Back Stock?Apple’s stock jumped 6% on Friday after announcing a $110 billion buyback plan, the largest in corporate history.Incidentally, Apple added $

Artificial intelligence has become a battle of titans in tech. Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Jensen Huang have become three of the most important voices in the industry and can move hundreds of millions of dollars of capital with a single comment.But it’s Mark Zuckerberg versus Sam Altman that I find the most interesting at the moment because one may be solidifying his position at the top of tech while the other struggles to keep his company relevant.The AI StackBelow is a very simple way to look at artificial intelligence companies today. There’s nuance in each, but broadly the market can be thought of as models, inferences, and apps.Models: GPT from OpenAI made AI models a household concept, but Llama 3 (which I’ll get to in a moment) has changed the game for AI and may show there wi

How do you find great investment ideas? $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. Take your spouse's credit card statement2. Rank by $ spent and # of line itemsGo through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.Keep in mind: Bear Stearns failed in March 2008 when unemployment was 5.1%Lehman Brothers Failed in