To The Moon

Apple's rally looks less like a new growth story and more like a rotation into perceived quality. The market backdrop supports that interpretation. Cooling CPI and PPI reduced concerns about inflation, while strong bank earnings improved overall risk sentiment. At the same time, investors were exiting the most crowded AI hardware trades after the sharp sell-off in memory stocks. Capital needed a home, and Apple, with its enormous free cash flow, resilient Services business and balance sheet, became a natural destination.  That said, Apple is not without challenges: The stock is trading near record highs after a strong rebound. Hardware growth is expected to moderate after recent strength. Rising DRAM and NAND costs could pressure hardware margins, although Apple has historically been

The pressure is now squarely on TSMC. ASML has effectively told the market that customers are still ordering advanced chipmaking equipment aggressively, with Q2 revenue and profit beating expectations and 2026 guidance raised to €43 to €45 billion. Even more importantly, management said AI customers continue to accelerate capacity expansion.  The question is no longer whether AI demand exists. It is whether TSMC can show that wafer demand is translating into sustained, profitable production. There are four numbers I would watch: 2026 revenue guidance. Any increase would reinforce the AI investment thesis. Capital expenditure. If TSMC raises capex again, it suggests customers such as Nvidia, AMD, Apple and Broadcom continue to reserve future capacity. Gross margin. Investors want to se

The evidence so far points more towards a policy-driven valuation reset than a collapse in the memory super-cycle. The sell-off was triggered by two macro factors arriving together: The Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first increase in three and a half years, and signalled that further tightening is possible. Higher interest rates reduce the present value of future earnings, which particularly affects stocks that had risen sharply on AI optimism.  Korean regulators have also been tightening scrutiny of single-stock leveraged ETFs, which can amplify both rallies and sell-offs through daily rebalancing.  That does not automatically mean the underlying demand has deteriorated. The key drivers of the current cycle remain largely unch

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 IBM's miss looks company-specific, but management's commentary is more interesting than the headline. If customers are genuinely pulling forward spending on servers, storage and memory ahead of expected price increases, that suggests AI infrastructure demand remains robust rather than weakening. I wouldn't call this a full software-to-hardware rotation yet. Enterprise IT budgets are finite, so near-term spending can temporarily favour infrastructure before shifting back to software once capacity is deployed. Companies with slower AI monetisation may also face greater scrutiny. My view: this is a tactical rotation, not a structural one. AI hardware, especially memory and networking, could continue to outperform in the coming quarters if supply stays tight. Longer term, however, hardwa

One strong rebound doesn't confirm the super-cycle is fully back, but it does show the market still has strong conviction in the AI memory story. Softer CPI and aggressive fund buying have improved sentiment, though volatility is likely to remain high after the recent shakeout. If choosing today: • SK Hynix: Highest quality HBM leader and closest beneficiary of AI demand, but also the richest valuation. • Micron: Most balanced choice with solid HBM growth and a more reasonable valuation. • SanDisk: Highest risk and potentially highest reward if the NAND recovery strengthens, but earnings are more cyclical. My preference would be Micron first, SK Hynix second, SanDisk third for a better balance of upside and risk. The long-term AI memory thesis remains intact, but expect sharp swings rather

A 12.6% one-day decline is significant, but by itself it does not confirm that the memory supercycle has peaked. The key question is why the stock fell: If the decline was driven mainly by valuation compression and profit-taking, especially after a very strong run and high expectations, the long-term memory thesis may remain intact. If it reflects evidence of weakening NAND pricing, customer inventory corrections, or deteriorating demand, then it would be more concerning. At present, the industry's structural drivers remain broadly supportive: AI servers continue to require more high-performance storage. Enterprise SSD demand is stronger than in previous cycles. Supply discipline across major NAND manufacturers is much better than in past booms. However, after a record rally, expectations

This is one of the most important macro events of the month because two separate catalysts are hitting markets within about 90 minutes of each other: the June CPI release, followed by Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony as Fed Chair.  I would not conclude that "the Fed is turning hawkish" based on the hearing alone. The more important question is whether both events reinforce each other: Hot CPI + hawkish Warsh: This is the most bearish outcome. Markets could push back expectations for rate cuts, Treasury yields may rise, and long-duration assets such as AI, software and high-growth technology could face renewed selling pressure.  Cool CPI + measured Warsh: Likely supportive for equities and could revive expectations of easing later in the year. Mixed signals: Expect shar

The move above US$400 is technically important, but I would be cautious about calling it a full restart of the autonomy story. The bullish case is that Robotaxi has progressed from concept to real-world deployment. Markets tend to assign much higher valuations once autonomous driving demonstrates commercial execution rather than promises. If Tesla expands safely into more cities while showing improving utilisation and economics, investors may increasingly value it as an AI and mobility platform instead of only an EV maker. The cautious case is that one launch does not prove scalability. The market will want evidence that Tesla can expand geographically, satisfy regulators, maintain a strong safety record, and generate meaningful revenue. Meanwhile, EV competition, vehicle margins, and earn

A single 6.8% rally is encouraging, but it is not enough on its own to confirm a "second launch" of the memory supercycle. The bullish case remains intact: AI infrastructure demand continues to support high-bandwidth memory, enterprise SSDs, and advanced NAND. If Samsung's supply concerns prove temporary, tighter industry discipline could support pricing again. SanDisk's valuation may still look attractive if earnings continue to improve. The cautious case is equally valid: Memory is one of the most cyclical segments in semiconductors. Sharp rallies after steep sell-offs are common. A 7% gain driven by sentiment and valuation headlines can reverse quickly if NAND pricing weakens or supply increases. The market will want confirmation through future pricing data, customer demand, and earning