To The Moon

 Calling this a “value investing milestone” is misplaced. The rally in Advanced Micro Devices Inc. reflects momentum, positioning, and AI narrative repricing, not classic undervaluation. 1. Structural story vs current pricing The CPU to GPU shift is genuine. AI workloads are compressing the gap, and AMD is a clear beneficiary via MI300 and data centre expansion. However, markets are already pricing: Rapid hyperscaler adoption Sustained AI capex cycles Competitive narrowing with Nvidia Corporation That leaves little margin for disappointment. 2. Can AMD reach $300? Possible, but conditional: Bull case: Strong guidance, visible backlog, and accelerating MI300 deployments Base case: Sideways consolidation after an extended run Bear case: Any hint of demand normalisation → sharp pullback

 A 42% surge in 12 sessions is not a “value investing milestone”. It is momentum meeting narrative expansion. The question now is whether Advanced Micro Devices Inc. can grow into the expectations embedded in price. 1. The CPU → GPU shift is real, but not linear The TrendForce 1:8 to 1:1 narrative reflects AI workloads reshaping compute demand. That benefits AMD structurally. However: Hyperscaler capex is cyclical and concentrated Nvidia still dominates software ecosystem (CUDA moat) AMD execution risk remains (supply, ecosystem, adoption speed) 2. Is $300 realistic? Bull case: Sustained MI300 adoption + strong data centre growth → $300 is achievable, but requires continued multiple expansion Base case: Growth meets expectations → consolidation before any move higher Bear case: Any sl

 The move towards ~$400 for Tesla Inc. is less about a single feature and more about whether the market believes FSD is transitioning from promise to monetisable platform. 1. Will subscription data satisfy? FSD Streaks is clever. It targets engagement, which is the leading indicator of subscription stickiness. What the market will look for: Net FSD subscriber growth, not just uptake Retention / churn improvement (this is key) ARPU stability or expansion If Tesla shows rising engagement translating into recurring revenue, it strengthens the “software multiple” narrative. If not, the feature risks being seen as cosmetic. 2. What matters more than earnings headline FSD revenue trajectory and attach rate Commentary on autonomy timelines (robotaxi credibility) Margin impact from software v

At this level, the issue is not whether the S&P 500 breaks higher or lower, but how asymmetric the risk has become. Near highs, upside tends to be incremental, while downside can be abrupt if policy surprises. A sensible approach is not a binary “risk on or off”, but conditional positioning: 1. Trim into strength, not weakness If the index pushes towards ~7,100 on dovish signals, gradually take profit on extended names, particularly high-beta AI and momentum trades. This locks in gains while liquidity is still favourable. 2. Rebalance towards barbell exposure Maintain core exposure to structural winners (AI, semis, quality growth), but increase allocation to defensives such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. This cushions volatility without fully exiting the market. 3. Add

Tesla Not because it is bad, but because it is too perfect right now. +7% move, pushing $400 FSD “Streaks” adds narrative fuel Everyone leaning bullish into earnings Yet: Deliveries already soft FSD revenue still unproven at scale Valuation pricing in future autonomy profits This is peak “conviction trap” territory. > Looks strongest when risk is highest. If earnings + guidance fail to justify the story, the unwind can be sharp. If it delivers, it rips. That tension is exactly why it is the easiest stock to love… and regret.

This is a high-quality beat, not just a headline beat. The mix shift tells the real story. On TSMC: 66%+ gross margin signals pricing power, not just volume 74% advanced-node mix confirms tight leading-edge supply > 60% HPC contribution shows AI is now the core driver, not cyclical demand Has TSMC set the tone? Yes, but with a nuance. It confirms AI demand at the supply-chain core is intact. This strengthens the case for: GPU leaders (compute demand) Memory (HBM bottlenecks) Foundry capacity (TSMC as choke point) It does not automatically validate downstream demand across all tech. The risk is still digestion at hyperscaler or enterprise level later. Would I bet on TSMC here? Bull case: Structural AI cycle + capacity scarcity → sustained high margins → further re-rating Risk: You are bu

It is correct to focus on the quality of the signal. A gamified feature like FSD Streaks is interesting, but by itself it will not move valuation unless it translates into durable revenue and margin expansion. Here is the grounded view on Tesla into earnings: 1. What the market actually needs Subscription metrics must show: Rising FSD attach rate (not just trials) Lower churn after trial periods Meaningful ARPU uplift If Tesla cannot show paid adoption, the market will treat Streaks as engagement, not monetisation. 2. The $400 question $400 is not just psychological. It implies: Confidence in FSD becoming a scalable SaaS layer Re-rating from auto OEM → AI platform That requires guidance, not just Q1 prints. 3. Likely scenarios Bull case: Strong FSD take rate + reaffirmed autonomy roadmap →

Yes, this is a meaningful technical and psychological win, but the next move now depends less on the breakout itself and more on whether earnings can justify the speed of the rally. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,022.95 on 16 April 2026, while the Nasdaq finished at 24,016.02, also a record. The Nasdaq is up about 15% in just the last 11 trading days, which shows powerful momentum but also raises the bar for companies reporting now.  My view: 7,000 can hold if earnings do three things. First, bellwethers need to beat on revenue and margins, not just EPS. Second, guidance must stay firm, especially around AI demand, consumer resilience, and enterprise spend. Third, management teams need to avoid cautious forward commentary, because at these valuation levels, even “good” numbers c

Bias: Selectively bullish, but hedged. Market is strong, yet crowded. Bullish exposure NVIDIA, TSMC → Call spreads (defined risk, avoids IV crush) Micron Technology → Short-dated calls (higher beta catch-up) Hedge SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust puts → Protect against earnings or macro shock Avoid Naked calls at highs Heavy bearish bets (trend still intact) Key trigger: TSM guidance Beat → continuation Cautious → chop Miss → pullback Bottom line: Bullish, but disciplined and risk-defined.

This is a nuanced setup. A simple “buy the dip” answer would be too blunt. 1. What ASML is really signalling ASML Holding is showing a sharp demand rotation, not outright weakness: Memory jump (30% → 51%) aligns with AI-driven HBM/NAND capex Logic decline reflects timing and lumpiness, not structural collapse The soft Q2 outlook matters because ASML sits upstream. When they guide cautiously, it usually reflects: Order timing delays Export control friction (especially China exposure) Visibility gaps, not necessarily demand destruction 2. “Drop then rebound” pattern That pattern exists, but it works best when: Weakness is clearly temporary End-demand remains intact Right now, the memory surge actually supports the AI thesis, but export controls introduce a real overhang. This is not a clean