To The Moon

SG earnings season: broadly resilient but lacking strong growth surprises. Results confirm stability rather than acceleration, with markets shifting from valuation rerating to earnings validation. Yield and cash flow remain the main drivers. Keppel: After a 12-year high, much of the transformation and leadership confidence appears priced in. The re-rating reflects its asset-light pivot and recurring income visibility. Upside now likely depends on execution and earnings delivery rather than further multiple expansion. Chasing momentum at current levels carries higher risk unless new catalysts emerge. SGX: Record revenue but share pullback looks macro-driven, mainly from falling rate expectations reducing interest income tailwinds. Core business remains strong with predictable cash flow and

The headline sounds powerful, but the market impact depends less on the number itself and more on credibility, pacing, and macro liquidity. --- 1. Would sovereign accumulation tighten supply? Yes, structurally, but only if execution is real and gradual. Bitcoin’s effective float is already smaller than headline circulating supply because: long-term holders rarely sell, lost coins reduce liquidity, ETF custody locks supply off exchanges. If a sovereign entity accumulates steadily over years, it removes marginal supply from the tradable market, which can: compress available float, increase price sensitivity to demand shocks, reinforce the “reserve asset” narrative. However, markets price actual buying, not proposals. Until purchases begin, the effect is mostly psychological. --- 2. Marginal

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Charging into the Year of the Horse with discipline, momentum, and a long-term mindset. May every position be well-timed, every risk well-managed, and every opportunity ridden with conviction. Here’s to turning strategy into strength and consistency into prosperity. Ready to ride towards richer horizons and stronger returns in 2026. 🐎📈

Yes, the softer January CPI meaningfully raises the probability of rate cuts, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained equity rally. The market reaction depends on why inflation is cooling and what it implies for growth. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but cautiously. January CPI rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures are easing. Markets immediately pulled forward easing expectations, with Treasury yields falling and traders increasing bets on Fed cuts later this year.  Key implications: Cooling inflation reduces the Fed’s need to keep policy restrictive. Futures markets now price meaningful probability of cuts beginning around mid-year. Bond markets reacted first: short-term Treasury yields dec

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1. Would sovereign accumulation tighten supply? Yes, if implemented, steady government buying would reduce liquid float. Bitcoin’s true tradable supply is already constrained by long-term holders and lost coins. A multi-year accumulation programme would act like a structural buyer, similar to central-bank gold purchases, gradually absorbing sell-side liquidity and increasing scarcity. The effect would be slow but cumulative rather than immediate. 2. Marginal vs ETF flows and macro cycles? In the near term, still marginal. ETF inflows/outflows and global liquidity conditions dominate price discovery because they move capital at institutional scale within weeks, not years. Rate expectations, USD strength, and risk appetite remain the primary drivers. A sovereign plan changes narrative, but E

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Charging into the Year of the Horse with discipline, momentum, and clear conviction. Markets reward patience as much as speed, so the real challenge is knowing when to sprint and when to hold the reins steady. Here’s to riding strong trends, managing risks wisely, and turning opportunities into lasting gains throughout 2026. May this be a year of steady progress, sharper decisions, and prosperous milestones ahead. Ready to ride towards riches and see where the journey leads. 🐎✨

Short answer: Yes, softer CPI raises the probability of rate cuts. But whether the S&P 500 extends gains depends less on inflation alone and more on growth, earnings, and positioning. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but not automatically or immediately. January CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the ongoing disinflation trend.  Markets reacted exactly as theory suggests: Treasury yields fell as traders priced earlier easing.  Futures increased expectations of Fed cuts later this year.  Economists broadly interpret this as giving the Fed “breathing room,” but policymakers still want several months of confirmation before cutting, with many forecasts pointing to a first cut around mid-year (June).  Key nuance: Infla

Yes, cautiously optimistic. Amazon’s decline reflects capex anxiety, not business weakness. The market is reacting to massive AI infrastructure spending, which depresses near-term free cash flow and raises uncertainty about returns. Investors are effectively pricing Amazon as a capital-heavy utility rather than a growth platform. However, this pattern has occurred before. Amazon historically invests aggressively ahead of demand, builds scale advantages, then monetises later. AWS itself went through this phase before becoming the company’s main profit engine. Today’s spending positions Amazon at the centre of AI compute, logistics automation, and data-driven commerce. If AI demand scales as expected, early infrastructure builders benefit from operating leverage and strong lock-in. Near ter

Yes, cautiously optimistic. Amazon’s decline reflects capex anxiety, not business weakness. The market is reacting to massive AI infrastructure spending, which depresses near-term free cash flow and raises uncertainty about returns. Investors are effectively pricing Amazon as a capital-heavy utility rather than a growth platform. However, this pattern has occurred before. Amazon historically invests aggressively ahead of demand, builds scale advantages, then monetises later. AWS itself went through this phase before becoming the company’s main profit engine. Today’s spending positions Amazon at the centre of AI compute, logistics automation, and data-driven commerce. If AI demand scales as expected, early infrastructure builders benefit from operating leverage and strong lock-in. Near ter