To The Moon

Gold’s long-term trend still looks constructive, driven by geopolitical risk, central-bank buying, and persistent policy uncertainty. These structural forces suggest higher price floors over time rather than a full trend reversal. Near term, however, the rally is stretched. After a parabolic move, consolidation or pullbacks from profit-taking and data surprises would be healthy. A hawkish-leaning but data-dependent Fed adds volatility, not a clear bearish signal. For strategy, horizon matters. Long-term holders can stay positioned and use pullbacks to rebalance. Short-term or leveraged traders may consider trimming into strength and re-entering on dips. Silver offers higher upside torque but also sharper swings due to its industrial exposure. Overall, I see gold moving into a high-level r

Can Gold Extend Gains Despite a Hawkish-Leaning Fed? The recent Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady with a hawkish tilt has not dampened gold’s advance. Markets interpreted Powell’s emphasis on data dependence and caution about reading too much into a single asset’s move as signalling that policy is not on an imminent path to tighter monetary conditions. This has left real yields subdued and the US dollar under pressure — conditions that typically support gold’s appeal as a non-yielding safe haven.  Beyond monetary policy, multiple structural factors are powering the rally: Safe-haven demand remains robust amid geopolitical uncertainty and global economic risk aversion.  Central bank buying and retail interest are sustaining elevated demand.  Momentum rema

$Apple(AAPL)$   1. Can strong iPhone 17 demand meaningfully offset margin pressure from higher memory costs? Yes, under current consensus views it can in the near term, but with nuances. JPMorgan and other analysts are explicitly betting that robust iPhone 17 demand will power Apple’s fiscal Q1 2026 results and help absorb cost headwinds. The bank raised its price target to USD 315 and maintained an Overweight rating on the back of stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 unit strength and anticipated lower operating expenses than previously guided. These factors, in their view, can help cushion the impact from rising memory costs on gross margins. JPMorgan expects that memory price increases will be limited in their net margin effect because Ap

Can Meta’s Rally Last? Bullish factors supporting continued strength: Meta’s fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations on both revenue and earnings, driven by robust advertising performance and stronger guidance for the first quarter of 2026. Analysts have responded with raised price targets, and the stock has reclaimed key technical levels following the earnings surge.  Option markets imply elevated volatility but still show room for upside continuation over the coming week, indicating that traders are positioning for further gains.  Capex increases, while large, are being underwritten by strong ad cash flows, differentiating Meta from peers where high investment is a bigger near-term drag.  Risks that could limit the rally: Elevated capital expenditure for 2026 (up to U

Follow the Leader Trump’s involvement is a policy signal, not an investing guarantee. Markets reliably front-run his intentions, but fundamentals often lag. Following early can work tactically; chasing after parabolic moves usually does not. Treat this as a catalyst trade, not a conviction bet. Risk vs Reward Pure-plays like USA Rare Earth (USAR) offer maximum upside but carry execution, funding, and valuation risk. These are trading instruments. Diversified exposure via iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) offers durability and lower drawdown risk but less torque. A small barbell allocation is more rational than all-in positioning. Next Big Move After rare earths, the most likely targets are: 1. Copper – critical for AI, grids, EVs; structurally undersupplied. 2.

The Seagate print reinforces why the storage complex remains one of the cleanest AI infrastructure trades, but it also sharpens the distinction between fundamental winners and momentum excess ahead of SanDisk and Western Digital. What Seagate’s Beat Really Signals Seagate Technology beating on both EPS and revenue confirms three important trends: 1. AI demand is real and broad-based, not confined to GPUs. Training and inference workloads are driving sustained demand for high-capacity, nearline storage. 2. Pricing power has returned, particularly in enterprise HDDs, as supply discipline meets structurally higher demand. 3. Operating leverage is kicking in. Storage is a brutal business during downturns, but margins expand rapidly when utilisation tightens. This sets a constructive backdrop f

Wall Street’s current view of Tesla reflects a tension between short-term financial realism and long-term strategic optimism. Analysts have pulled back 2026 earnings forecasts significantly, yet price targets have been raised in some cases, pointing to a belief that Tesla’s narrative around autonomy, robotaxi economics and robotics could eventually justify premium valuations even if near-term profits disappoint. Here is a balanced assessment of whether the artificial intelligence and robotics story can support higher valuations and what specific milestones markets will look for. Can the AI and Robotics Narrative Justify Higher Valuations? In principle, yes—but only if execution aligns with visionary goals and delivers measurable, scalable economics. There are three core elements to this na

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$   Key Points from Recent Reports • UnitedHealth’s Q4 results slightly beat on earnings per share but missed revenue expectations, and the company guided to lower 2026 revenue (about 2% decline). Shares declined sharply on this outlook.  • The CMS proposed a very modest increase (around 0.09 per cent) in Medicare Advantage payment rates for 2027, failing to keep pace with industry expectations and adding pressure on health insurers, particularly those with large MA footprints.  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average was weighed down by health insurer weakness, even as broader indices such as the S&P 500 posted gains.  Contrasting Analyst Views • Some analysts argue valuation metrics can present a long-ter

Microsoft: Can AI-driven cloud growth meet elevated expectations? Base case: Likely to meet, harder to beat decisively Azure growth is still being driven by AI workloads, enterprise migration, and Copilot attach rates. Demand visibility remains strong, and backlog conversion should support headline growth. The challenge is expectations. Investors are now less impressed by “strong” growth and more focused on whether AI revenue is incremental or merely accelerating existing spend. Margin optics matter. Rising AI infrastructure costs mean revenue beats without margin leverage may be received neutrally rather than positively. Market reaction risk A beat with in-line guidance likely sustains current valuation. A clear upside surprise in Azure growth or AI monetisation commentary could trigger a

Silver’s price action reflects a market that has shifted from trend to stress. How to read the move The spike to ~$117/oz followed by a same-day round trip is classic blow-off volatility, often seen when leverage, thin liquidity, and momentum collide. Such reversals typically flush weak hands but do not automatically end a bull cycle. Heraeus is right to flag relative valuation. Silver’s gold ratio compressed aggressively, and history shows that when industrial users actively seek substitutes, near-term demand elasticity rises and prices correct. What the rebound tells us The ~7% futures rebound suggests dip-buyers remain active, likely driven by macro hedging and scarcity narratives rather than immediate industrial demand. However, rebounds after extreme reversals tend to be fragile unles