To The Moon

One Week Ago. It was exactly a week ago, on Thu, 01 Aug 2024 when US weekly jobless claims report (for week ending 27 Jul 2024) was released, that started the whole downward spiral. US Weekly Jobless Claims. The Labor Department reported: Number of people on jobless rolls swelling in mid-July to the highest level since late August 2021. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased +14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted 236,000 claims instead. The data fanned fears of a rapid labour market deterioration, that first surfaced in July 2024, when data showed the unemployment rate rose to a 2-1/2-year high of 4.1% in June. S&P 500 Since 01 August. Ever since last Thursday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)

On Tuesday, I shared two charts to set expectations around the broad market volatility. Reposting them with emphasis:Interestingly, the August 5th crash in 2019 also occurred on August 5th.Observe the swing amplitudes from these charts, not the specific price levels, as history won't repeat exactly.For the next 1-2 months, be prepared for similarly wide trading ranges before conditions stabilize.Is This the Bottom?If referencing those prior charts, Nvidia at $90 could represent a bottom. But is that really the case?For those familiar with my option flow analysis, stable outlooks tend to show concentrated strike clustering and heavy weighting towards imminent weekly expirations. Institutions rarely initiate sizeable positions in deeply out-of-the-money strikes.So when we see scattered strik