苏36

    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 23:28
    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 23:24
      Chart #12 probably hits hardest: losses are mathematically brutal. A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain just to get back to where you started. That’s why avoiding permanent capital destruction matters more than chasing every hot trade. But Chart #14 is the bigger lesson for me: time is an investor’s greatest advantage. Compounding rewards those who start early, keep adding, and resist the temptation to constantly interfere. The market will always offer reasons to panic at the bottom and feel invincible near the top. The real edge is staying rational when everyone else is emotional. I’d rather own a few businesses with durable moats, strong ROIC and long reinvestment runways than constantly rotate into whatever is trending. Investing isn’t about being right every quarter. It’s about survivi
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 23:21
      I’d pick C. Both. The bigger opportunity isn’t MBS taking market share from RWS, but Singapore growing the entire tourism pie. MBS’s US$8 billion expansion is a major bet on luxury tourism, concerts and MICE. Its 15,000-seat arena could attract more global acts and overseas visitors, boosting spending across hotels, restaurants, retail and entertainment. Meanwhile, Genting Singapore’s RWS 2.0 provides its own growth catalyst through expanded attractions and hospitality. If both projects succeed, Singapore could create a powerful cycle: better attractions bring more tourists, while bigger events drive higher-value spending. By 2031, the real winner may be Singapore itself. For investors, however, I’d focus on ROIC, visitor growth, gaming revenue and valuation. A bigger tourism market is bu
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 23:18
      If I had to pick just one, I’d go with $SNOW. BE has the cleaner technical breakout, while HOOD, COIN and MSTR could deliver bigger gains if Bitcoin keeps climbing. But SNOW is the setup I find most convincing because the fundamentals are catching up with the price. Product revenue grew 37% YoY to $1.49B, and management raised FY2027 guidance to $6.07B. More importantly, AI is driving increasing customer consumption, suggesting this isn’t simply another AI-fueled valuation story. Still, a 16%+ one-day rally means expectations are now elevated. I wouldn’t chase the spike. I’d rather wait for consolidation or a pullback and see whether the earnings gap becomes a new support zone. My choice: SNOW. Not the fastest horse, but arguably the one with the strongest evidence behind its breakout.
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 23:12
      Tonight’s jobs report changed the market narrative. August payrolls surged 162K versus expectations of just 56K, while unemployment stayed at 4.1% and July was revised sharply higher. This is excellent news for the US economy, but not necessarily for stocks. A resilient labor market gives the Fed less reason to ease policy and could keep September rate-hike risks alive. Still, wage growth at 3.1% YoY remains relatively contained. So this isn’t a death sentence for tech—it simply shifts the spotlight to inflation. The next CPI report may matter more than tonight’s payrolls. If inflation cools, strong employment becomes a growth-positive signal. If CPI accelerates, markets could face a painful repricing of rate expectations. Strong jobs, stubborn rates—the Fed still holds the cards.
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 18:18
      I wouldn’t rush into Snowflake after a 16.5% single-day surge. The fundamentals are clearly improving: product revenue grew 37%, AI contributed roughly half of the recent acceleration, and full-year product revenue guidance was raised to $6.07 billion. However, there’s an important catch: management lowered its product gross-margin outlook to 74% because AI workloads are more expensive to run. That means revenue growth is accelerating, but profitability is not moving in the same direction. My view: SNOW is a strong long-term AI/cloud story, but I’d rather buy the pullback than chase the breakout. If growth keeps accelerating and margins stabilize, today’s valuation could eventually look reasonable. If margins keep deteriorating, the market may quickly reconsider the premium.
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 11:50
      $BlackSky Technology (BKSY) BlackSky is a relatively small company, but what it is building sits at the intersection of space, AI, defense and real-time intelligence. And that combination is what makes this stock interesting. It’s not a rocket company. It’s not simply selling satellite images. Its bigger idea is: «Use satellites to collect real-time information, then use AI and software to turn that data into actionable intelligence.» That could become a much bigger business than simply selling pictures from space. --- 🌍 What does BlackSky actually do? BlackSky operates a constellation of Earth-observation satellites. These satellites collect imagery and other data from locations around the world. BlackSky then combines that information with its software and AI capabilities to identify cha
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 11:22
      I’d lean toward B: moderate cooling allows technology stocks to continue rebounding, but with one important caveat: tonight’s jobs report is only the first test. The market will care less about whether payrolls beat or miss by a few thousand and more about the combination of hiring, unemployment and wage growth. The ideal scenario is a softer labor market without recession signals: slower job creation, unemployment staying around 4.1%, and wages continuing to cool. That could reduce rate-hike expectations and support tech, small caps and other rate-sensitive assets. But if employment collapses, recession fears could overwhelm the benefit of lower yields. And if wages remain hot, the Fed may stay hawkish. In my view, CPI next Friday is still the real final boss. Tonight can change the narr

      After Payrolls Comes CPI: U.S. Stocks Enter a Two-Stage Stress Test for a September Rate Hike

      @Tiger_comments
      Tonight’s jobs report will determine the market’s initial reaction, while next Friday’s CPI may determine the Federal Reserve’s final decision. With U.S. markets closed on Monday for Labor Day, stocks will carry this rate uncertainty into a three-day weekend. On September 3, all three major U.S. indexes rallied: the Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.40%. The catalyst was not another corporate earnings release, but a comment from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller: if upcoming data confirms that inflation is cooling, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September. Markets quickly reduced their rate-hike bets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September hike fell from 63.2% to 50.4% in one day
      After Payrolls Comes CPI: U.S. Stocks Enter a Two-Stage Stress Test for a September Rate Hike
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-04 11:06
      Franklin’s framework is especially relevant for September: the AI bull thesis may remain intact, but that doesn’t mean every AI stock is a buy. I’m still bullish on semiconductors because AI demand is expanding beyond GPUs into HBM, networking, optics, power and cooling. Nvidia’s results prove demand is strong, but expectations are now extremely high. The key question is no longer “Is AI growing?” but “Is growth strong enough to beat what the market already priced in?” For September, I’d watch long-term Treasury yields closely. Rising yields can compress tech valuations even when earnings remain excellent. My approach is to buy confirmation, not excitement. QQQ can remain a core position, while SOXL and TQQQ should be tactical tools with strict sizing. Macro → Industry → Technicals → Risk.
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·09-03
      My Take: Expectations Matter More Than Earnings This earnings night shows a crucial market lesson: a stock doesn’t trade on how good the results are—it trades on how good they are versus expectations. SNOW was the biggest surprise because growth re-accelerated, product revenue jumped 37%, and full-year guidance was raised. Investors weren’t positioned for that combination, so the upside was explosive. AVGO was different. Its numbers were phenomenal, with AI semiconductor revenue soaring 221%, but expectations were already extreme. A tiny guidance shortfall and margin pressure were enough to trigger selling. HPE delivered strong results too, but without a major upside surprise. So when a stock barely moves after beating earnings, I don’t automatically see a warning. I see a market telling u
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