To The Moon

Issued: April 7, 2026 (Pre-Asia Open)Period Covered: March 30, 2026 → April 7, 2026 1. Core Macro Dislocation Breakdown The defining anomaly in the current market is as follows: WTI Crude has surged to 115.35, while the US 10-Year Treasury Yield has declined to 4.352%. Under a standard macro framework, this configuration should not coexist. The classical transmission mechanism is: Oil ↑ → Inflation Expectations ↑ → Long-End Yields ↑ → Equity Valuations ↓ Yet the market is currently exhibiting: Oil ↑ + Yields ↓ + S&P 500 rebounding to 6611.83 This constitutes a clear case of structural mispricing. This dislocation must be decomposed into three layers: (1) Short-Term Trigger: Supply Shock and Rate Divergence The rise in oil prices is driven by supply-side constraints: Shipping disruption

Issued: March 30, 2026 Period Covered: March 23, 2026 → March 30, 2026 1. Macro & Geopolitical Overview Over the past week, global markets have undergone a critical structural regime shift: The marginal anchor for global asset pricing has violently pivoted from "Federal Reserve Rates" to "Commodity Spot Markets." The Concession of Marginal Pricing Power: From Financial to Physical Systems For the past decade, the dominant market variables were: interest rates, liquidity conditions, and central bank balance sheets. In the current phase, these have been temporarily superseded by: spot crude supply, energy transportation capacity, and physical production bottlenecks. This signifies that marginal pricing power has been conceded from the "cost of capital" to the "scarcity of physical resour

Issued: 2026-03-23 (Asia Pre-Market)Period Covered: 2026-03-16 → 2026-03-231. Macro & Geopolitical OverviewOver the past week, the global market has undergone a second structural escalation:From “Oil Supply Shock” → “Energy + Power Crisis”Core Variable #1: Oil Supply DisruptionOngoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with escalating conflict in the Middle East, have led to:Reduced shipping efficiencyPhysical supply constraintsMarkets are no longer pricing “risk” — they are pricing:A Real Supply ShortageCore Variable #2: Power Infrastructure AttacksThe most underappreciated but critical development this week:Targeting of power infrastructureThis has consequences far beyond oil.First-Order Impact:Electricity supply tighteningRising industrial costsReinforced inflation press

Time Anchor & Core Focus Issued: 2026-03-16 17:06 SGT (Asia PM Session) Period Covered: 2026-03-09 → 2026-03-15 Focus: Energy Supply Shock | BTC Decoupling | HALO Trade | Execution Discipline 1. Macro & Geopolitical Overview Over the past week, the core variables driving global markets have been entirely hijacked by the "Middle East Conflict + Energy Supply Shock." Macro fundamentals (rates, employment, growth) are being completely suppressed by geopolitics in the near term. U.S. Airstrikes on Kharg Island (Energy Hub): While the strikes did not completely obliterate Iran's export infrastructure, they delivered an unmistakable signal to the market: the war is escalating. De Facto Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: Severe tanker congestion and suspensions are plaguing the chokepoint

Note: As of Asian trading session March 9, WTI Spot trades at $91.55, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ implies a 6739 open. In the week of March 9, 2026, the key macro variable driving global markets has become unmistakably clear: The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a tail risk — it is becoming an active market reality. During the Asian trading session, energy markets have already begun pricing in the shock. If the disruption persists, roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply could be affected — making this one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world. A Global Energy Shock Already in Motion Recent tanker tracking data shows maritime traffic in the strait collapsing, with hundreds of vessels stranded near Gulf ports. Several majo

Period Covered: Feb 23–28, 2026Issued: Saturday, Feb 28, 2026Focus: US | China/HK | Crypto | Commodities | Geopolitical Events1) Macro & Geopolitical SummaryUnited StatesEquities:S&P 500: 6,812Nasdaq Composite: 16,432Dow Jones: 34,910Fixed Income: US 10Y Treasury Yield: 3.961%FX: USD DXY: 102.34Macro drivers:Feb 26 PCE inflation 2.9% → marginal driver for 10Y yields decline and short-term equity repricing.Q4 GDP (2/20 Advance Estimate) already digested; included as background.AsiaChina / Hong Kong:Hang Seng: 26,381 (‑1.4%)Hang Seng Tech: 5,109 (‑2.9%)Shanghai Composite: 3,332 (‑0.4%)Japan: Nikkei 225: 31,110 (+0.3%)Capital flows: Anticipate Southbound outflow from HK tech → A-share defense / national tech replacement sectors in response to Pakistan–Afghanistan war.CryptocurrenciesB