To The Moon

For most of corporate history, the relationship between a customer and a supplier was relatively simple. One company made something. Another company bought it. Money went one way. Products went the other. Artificial intelligence may be changing that relationship. Because some of the largest technology companies on Earth are no longer simply buying AI infrastructure. They are increasingly taking economic stakes in the companies building it. Amazon has just entered a multi-generation AI infrastructure partnership with Qualcomm. The headline number is enormous. Amazon could purchase up to US$60 billion of Qualcomm AI data-centre chips and related products under the agreement. But the part that interests me more is buried underneath. Qualcomm has also granted Amazon warrants worth approximatel

Memory stocks are surging while the broader market struggles. The obvious explanation is simple: AI demand is strong. HBM is scarce. Memory prices are rising. Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung benefit. I think that explanation stops one level too early. Because something much larger is happening underneath the memory rally. AI data centres are not simply creating another source of semiconductor demand. They are competing with the rest of the technology industry for a limited manufacturing resource. And increasingly, the rest of technology is losing. The result could change much more than memory-company earnings. It could change how much laptops cost. How much RAM goes into smartphones. Which consumer brands survive. How quickly people replace devices. Whether affordable phones can run AI locall

Friday gave us one of those market sessions that looks strange until you ask a different question. The major US indexes fell. Treasury yields rose after August payrolls came in far stronger than expected. Rate-hike expectations increased. Growth stocks should have hated that setup. Yet one corner of the market went in completely the opposite direction. Memory and storage exploded higher. SanDisk jumped around 12%. Micron gained 6.1%. Western Digital rose nearly 6%. Seagate also rallied. The semiconductor index climbed more than 3% despite weakness across the broader market. Then Asia opened and the move continued. SK Hynix surged roughly 8%. Samsung Electronics climbed nearly 6%. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4.6%. At first glance, this looks like another AI rally. I think something more inte

Koolgal with the goods as always 🤲 

When investors think about artificial intelligence infrastructure, the conversation usually starts with one object: The GPU. NVIDIA. AMD. Custom accelerators. More compute. More chips. More data centres. But there’s a problem. You can build the most powerful AI accelerator on Earth and it becomes dramatically less useful if data cannot move between thousands of accelerators quickly enough. That is why I think one of the next major AI infrastructure battles will not simply be about computing data. It will be about: MOVING IT. And suddenly Corning becomes much more interesting. 🧠 AI’S BOTTLENECK KEEPS MOVING Every technology boom creates bottlenecks. First, AI needed GPUs. Then it needed enough electricity to power them. Then investors started focusing on networking, memory and cooling. Now

Tesla finally put the purpose-built Cybercab onto public roads. No steering wheel. No pedals. No driver. And, according to Texas records, only 45 Cybercabs are currently registered in the state. For a company worth around US$1.4 trillion, that number sounds almost ridiculous. 45 cars? Is this really the robotaxi revolution investors have been waiting years for? I think that is the wrong question. Because Tesla’s Cybercab thesis will not ultimately be decided by how many gold cars were parked in Austin during launch week. It will be decided by something much less exciting: Unit economics. 🚕 45 CARS ARE A TEST. NOT A BUSINESS. Tesla’s Texas autonomous fleet contains hundreds of vehicles, but only 45 are currently purpose-built Cybercabs. The company has also begun asking businesses whether t

There was a time when reporting 221% growth in AI revenue would have been enough to send almost any semiconductor stock flying. Broadcom just did exactly that. The stock fell anyway. And I think that tells us something much bigger about where the AI trade has reached. Broadcom didn’t report a weak quarter. It reported: 📈 Q3 revenue: US$29.6B, +86% YoY 🤖 AI semiconductor revenue: US$16.7B, +221% YoY 💰 Non-GAAP EPS: US$3.32, +96% YoY 💵 Free cash flow: US$13.7B 🚀 Q4 AI revenue guidance: US$21.7B, +236% YoY Broadcom also expects AI semiconductor revenue to reach approximately US$115B in FY2027 and potentially US$230B in FY2028. Read those numbers again. Then ask yourself: What exactly does an AI company have to do now to impress Wall Street? Because I don’t think Broadcom’s biggest problem is

For the last few years, the AI semiconductor story has been remarkably simple. AI spending goes up. Demand for GPUs explodes. Nvidia wins. But Broadcom’s upcoming earnings could test whether the next phase of the AI boom is becoming much more complicated. Broadcom reports fiscal Q3 earnings on September 2, and expectations are enormous. Wall Street is looking for roughly $29.4 billion in revenue and $3.24 in adjusted EPS. But those headline numbers are not what interests me most. Broadcom has already guided for approximately $16 billion in AI semiconductor revenue, representing growth of more than 200% year over year. That raises a much bigger question: Does Nvidia actually need to lose for Broadcom to become one of the biggest winners of the AI infrastructure boom? I don’t think it does.

Something interesting happened across the AI trade this week. AI demand didn’t suddenly disappear. Data-centre spending didn’t collapse. The long-term AI story didn’t magically break overnight. Yet several AI hardware names were punished despite reporting numbers that, on the surface, looked strong. That tells me the market may be entering a different phase of the AI cycle. The question is no longer simply: “Is AI growing?” We already know the answer to that. The more important question might now be: “Which companies can grow fast enough to justify what investors are already paying for that growth?” And that distinction could become extremely important heading into September. 💥 MARVELL SHOWED US THE PROBLEM $MRVL is probably one of the clearest examples. Marvell delivered strong quarterly

If I judged August purely by my portfolio, it would be a pretty strange month to review. My positions were small. Some were short-lived. There were buys, sells, changes of plan and at least one period where I bought $BE and then watched it fluctuate like it had taken my purchase personally. 😂 But the biggest reason my portfolio looked the way it did had very little to do with the market. Real life happened. I needed access to money for personal circumstances, which meant selling investments earlier than I might otherwise have chosen. At first, that felt frustrating. We spend so much time talking about finding great companies, building conviction and holding for the long term. But August taught me something I think is just as important: Your investment strategy has to survive your real life