To The Moon

Following up on my previous article about my outlook for the memory sector in July: Fourth: Being Bullish on SK Hynix Does Not Mean You Should Hold 7709 Indefinitely [You may be able to wait with [$SK Hynix (SKHY)$](https://ttm.financial/S/SKHY) shares—but [$CSOP SK Hynix 2x Long (07709)$](https://ttm.financial/S/07709) may never make it back to its previous high.] This is one of the issues investors most commonly misunderstand. Being bullish on a company and choosing the right instrument to invest in it are two entirely different things. If you own SK Hynix shares, then as long as the company’s profitability and competitive position have not been permanently damaged, you can theoretically wait for the next upcycle. Leveraged products such as 7709 are different. They are subject to daily r

To be honest, back between April and June, so many people wanted to say one thing: "Buffett, you're getting old! This new era belongs to the youth, to tech, and to AI! Your investment style is outdated!!" But now that it's July, everyone is finally realizing that Buffett is still the true Oracle. I guess people are finally understanding what he meant by "the most important thing is to stay alive." There is a saying that I think hits the nail on the head: "Buy when there is panic; sell when there is hysteria." I hope everyone can reflect on this and take it to heart.

Before discussing anything else, let me start with a simple question about the memory sector. From their recent highs to where they are now, stocks such as [$SK hynix (SKHY)$](https://ttm.financial/S/SKHY) and [$SanDisk (SNDK)$](https://ttm.financial/S/SNDK) have fallen sharply in less than two weeks. Have HBM orders declined during this period? Have NAND flash and DRAM prices fallen? Clearly, the answer is no. This suggests that the fundamentals have not changed. What we are seeing is simply a short-term leverage unwind. Below is my detailed analysis and personal view based on the available data. First: SK hynix’s fundamentals have not been disproven, but the short-term bottom has not been confirmed SK hynix’s Korean-listed shares plunged by more than 15% at one point today. The KOSPI fel

Market Structure View on $SKHY The key point is simple: A 7x oversubscribed book proves that the primary market wants allocation. It does not prove that the secondary market has to keep bidding the stock higher. The real issue here is that the primary market and the secondary market are trading two completely different things. SK Hynix’s U.S. listing is huge. The basic facts are clear: 17.79 million new common shares. 177.9 million ADSs. 10 ADSs represent 1 common share. Demand reportedly exceeded available supply by more than 7x. Large U.S. institutional orders started around $200 million. Baillie Gifford, Coatue, Situational Awareness and other major funds have shown interest. That demand is real. But primary demand and secondary price action are not the same thing. The primary market is

If I had to summarize my first half of 2026 in one sentence, I would say: It was a first half filled with both pain and reward. The reward was that I saw the opportunity in the memory sector early. The pain was that I got the direction right, but I did not truly hold on. The best decision I made in the first half of the year was starting to build a position in the memory sector in January, mainly through Micron. My thinking at the time was simple: As HBM prices continued to rise, DRAM and NAND were also entering a new pricing upcycle. The memory industry was likely moving back into a strong cycle. Historically, memory has always been a classic cyclical industry. Every few years, it enters a powerful upcycle. But this time is different. This cycle is not only driven by a normal supply-deman

AI infrastructure is entering a new phase. In the first phase, the market was trading one question: Who has the most GPUs? Then the focus shifted to data centers. Who can secure enough power, land, cooling, servers, and deployment capacity? But now, the question is changing again. As AI Mega Clusters move from hundreds of thousands of GPUs toward millions of GPUs, the bottleneck is no longer just GPUs. It is no longer just power. The next bottleneck is whether multiple data centers can be connected into one unified AI training cluster. That is Scale-Across. SemiAnalysis recently published a deep dive on this topic. Their core view is clear: future AI clusters cannot rely forever on the expansion of a single campus. More cloud providers will have to connect multiple data centers, multiple c

Samsung’s profit surged 19x, yet memory stocks sold off hard. So what exactly is the market pricing in? Samsung delivered an almost flawless Q2 earnings guidance. Revenue is expected to reach 171 trillion KRW, while operating profit is expected to hit 89.4 trillion KRW, up nearly 19x year over year. This is not a normal cyclical recovery. This is a profit explosion driven by AI servers, HBM demand, and DRAM price increases. In theory, this kind of guidance should have ignited the entire memory sector. But the market’s reaction was the opposite: A sharp selloff. And that is exactly what makes today important. Memory stocks did not fall because Samsung’s earnings were weak. They did not fall because HBM demand suddenly disappeared. They fell because the market is shifting from pricing in ear

Next week, I believe the memory sector deserves serious attention. Several major catalysts are lining up at the same time: SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing, continued DRAM price hikes, changes in long-term contract pricing, and a more supportive macro backdrop. Individually, each of these factors matters. Together, they could mark the beginning of a major re-rating for the memory sector. First, SK Hynix. SK Hynix is expected to list on Nasdaq on July 10, with an estimated issuance size of around $29 billion, making it one of the largest ADR offerings in history. The structure is expected to be 1 ADR representing 0.1 common share. This is not just about adding another tradable ticker. It means global capital will finally have a more direct way to price SK Hynix. For a leading memory player, this c

1. Broader Market: Divergence Is Emerging, but the Trend Has Not Broken QQQ: Consolidation Is Nearing Its End QQQ is still trading inside a 4-hour symmetrical triangle. Lower highs and higher lows show that the market is currently in a typical no-trend consolidation phase. This type of structure usually does not last too long. A directional breakout is likely approaching next week. For now, I still lean slightly bullish and believe an upside breakout is more likely. There are a few reasons behind this view. First, South Korean equities showed a clear recovery on Friday, with names like SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding. Nasdaq futures also strengthened, which helped improve sentiment around tech stocks. Second, QQQ still has an upside gap that has not been filled yet. Historically, gaps like

1. Broader Market: Divergence Is Emerging, but the Trend Has Not Broken QQQ: Consolidation Is Nearing Its End QQQ is still trading inside a 4-hour symmetrical triangle. Lower highs and higher lows show that the market is currently in a typical no-trend consolidation phase. This type of structure usually does not last too long. A directional breakout is likely approaching next week. For now, I still lean slightly bullish and believe an upside breakout is more likely. There are a few reasons behind this view. First, South Korean equities showed a clear recovery on Friday, with names like SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding. Nasdaq futures also strengthened, which helped improve sentiment around tech stocks. Second, QQQ still has an upside gap that has not been filled yet. Historically, gaps like