To The Moon

Market Structure View on $SKHY The key point is simple: A 7x oversubscribed book proves that the primary market wants allocation. It does not prove that the secondary market has to keep bidding the stock higher. The real issue here is that the primary market and the secondary market are trading two completely different things. SK Hynix’s U.S. listing is huge. The basic facts are clear: 17.79 million new common shares. 177.9 million ADSs. 10 ADSs represent 1 common share. Demand reportedly exceeded available supply by more than 7x. Large U.S. institutional orders started around $200 million. Baillie Gifford, Coatue, Situational Awareness and other major funds have shown interest. That demand is real. But primary demand and secondary price action are not the same thing. The primary market is

If I had to summarize my first half of 2026 in one sentence, I would say: It was a first half filled with both pain and reward. The reward was that I saw the opportunity in the memory sector early. The pain was that I got the direction right, but I did not truly hold on. The best decision I made in the first half of the year was starting to build a position in the memory sector in January, mainly through Micron. My thinking at the time was simple: As HBM prices continued to rise, DRAM and NAND were also entering a new pricing upcycle. The memory industry was likely moving back into a strong cycle. Historically, memory has always been a classic cyclical industry. Every few years, it enters a powerful upcycle. But this time is different. This cycle is not only driven by a normal supply-deman

AI infrastructure is entering a new phase. In the first phase, the market was trading one question: Who has the most GPUs? Then the focus shifted to data centers. Who can secure enough power, land, cooling, servers, and deployment capacity? But now, the question is changing again. As AI Mega Clusters move from hundreds of thousands of GPUs toward millions of GPUs, the bottleneck is no longer just GPUs. It is no longer just power. The next bottleneck is whether multiple data centers can be connected into one unified AI training cluster. That is Scale-Across. SemiAnalysis recently published a deep dive on this topic. Their core view is clear: future AI clusters cannot rely forever on the expansion of a single campus. More cloud providers will have to connect multiple data centers, multiple c

Samsung’s profit surged 19x, yet memory stocks sold off hard. So what exactly is the market pricing in? Samsung delivered an almost flawless Q2 earnings guidance. Revenue is expected to reach 171 trillion KRW, while operating profit is expected to hit 89.4 trillion KRW, up nearly 19x year over year. This is not a normal cyclical recovery. This is a profit explosion driven by AI servers, HBM demand, and DRAM price increases. In theory, this kind of guidance should have ignited the entire memory sector. But the market’s reaction was the opposite: A sharp selloff. And that is exactly what makes today important. Memory stocks did not fall because Samsung’s earnings were weak. They did not fall because HBM demand suddenly disappeared. They fell because the market is shifting from pricing in ear

Next week, I believe the memory sector deserves serious attention. Several major catalysts are lining up at the same time: SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing, continued DRAM price hikes, changes in long-term contract pricing, and a more supportive macro backdrop. Individually, each of these factors matters. Together, they could mark the beginning of a major re-rating for the memory sector. First, SK Hynix. SK Hynix is expected to list on Nasdaq on July 10, with an estimated issuance size of around $29 billion, making it one of the largest ADR offerings in history. The structure is expected to be 1 ADR representing 0.1 common share. This is not just about adding another tradable ticker. It means global capital will finally have a more direct way to price SK Hynix. For a leading memory player, this c

1. Broader Market: Divergence Is Emerging, but the Trend Has Not Broken QQQ: Consolidation Is Nearing Its End QQQ is still trading inside a 4-hour symmetrical triangle. Lower highs and higher lows show that the market is currently in a typical no-trend consolidation phase. This type of structure usually does not last too long. A directional breakout is likely approaching next week. For now, I still lean slightly bullish and believe an upside breakout is more likely. There are a few reasons behind this view. First, South Korean equities showed a clear recovery on Friday, with names like SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding. Nasdaq futures also strengthened, which helped improve sentiment around tech stocks. Second, QQQ still has an upside gap that has not been filled yet. Historically, gaps like

1. Broader Market: Divergence Is Emerging, but the Trend Has Not Broken QQQ: Consolidation Is Nearing Its End QQQ is still trading inside a 4-hour symmetrical triangle. Lower highs and higher lows show that the market is currently in a typical no-trend consolidation phase. This type of structure usually does not last too long. A directional breakout is likely approaching next week. For now, I still lean slightly bullish and believe an upside breakout is more likely. There are a few reasons behind this view. First, South Korean equities showed a clear recovery on Friday, with names like SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding. Nasdaq futures also strengthened, which helped improve sentiment around tech stocks. Second, QQQ still has an upside gap that has not been filled yet. Historically, gaps like

1. Broader Market: Divergence Is Emerging, but the Trend Has Not Broken QQQ: Consolidation Is Nearing Its End QQQ is still trading inside a 4-hour symmetrical triangle. Lower highs and higher lows show that the market is currently in a typical no-trend consolidation phase. This type of structure usually does not last too long. A directional breakout is likely approaching next week. For now, I still lean slightly bullish and believe an upside breakout is more likely. There are a few reasons behind this view. First, South Korean equities showed a clear recovery on Friday, with names like SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding. Nasdaq futures also strengthened, which helped improve sentiment around tech stocks. Second, QQQ still has an upside gap that has not been filled yet. Historically, gaps like

1. Broader Market: Divergence Is Emerging, but the Trend Has Not Broken QQQ: Consolidation Is Nearing Its End QQQ is still trading inside a 4-hour symmetrical triangle. Lower highs and higher lows show that the market is currently in a typical no-trend consolidation phase. This type of structure usually does not last too long. A directional breakout is likely approaching next week. For now, I still lean slightly bullish and believe an upside breakout is more likely. There are a few reasons behind this view. First, South Korean equities showed a clear recovery on Friday, with names like SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding. Nasdaq futures also strengthened, which helped improve sentiment around tech stocks. Second, QQQ still has an upside gap that has not been filled yet. Historically, gaps like

As SK hynix approaches its July 10 listing event, investors are increasingly asking the same question: Will additional shares entering the market create selling pressure across the memory sector? That concern is understandable. But I believe the market may be focusing on the wrong variable. The long-term direction of memory stocks has never been determined by a listing event alone. It has always been driven by the industry's earnings cycle. Over the past two years, artificial intelligence has fundamentally reshaped the memory market. HBM demand continues to outpace supply. DDR5 adoption is accelerating. Enterprise SSD demand continues to grow alongside AI infrastructure spending. Those structural trends remain far more important than a single capital markets event. Many investors instincti