To The Moon

Last Week's Recap1. US Market -Best Thanksgiving week since 2008Great Thanksgiving week:US stocks rallied across the board last week, with all three major indices up over 3%. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged 4.91% for the week, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained nearly 4%, marking its best Thanksgiving week since 2008. The S& 500 has risen for seven straight months, its best streak in over seven years. JPMorgan is bullish, forecasting a 20% rise by 2027.December rate cut odds rose: CME FedWatch Tool shows an 87.4% probability. Trump said Sunday he has chosen the next Fed chair and will announce soon.Easing policy tailwind: Data supports a soft landing, but with fewer official releases recently, the econo

Last Week's Recap1. U.S. Market -Investor cautions and Tech PullbackTech pullback: The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finished the week down 2.7%, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ posted smaller declines of about 2.0%.Fed cut uncertainty: Unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of an interest rate cut on December 10 increased to nearly 72%, up from about 30% earlier in the week.Volatility returns: Short-term expectations of U.S. stock market volatility surged, with the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ reachin

Last Week's Recap1. U.S. Market - Shutdown Relief vs. AI HangoverIndexes: Equities swung sharply through the week. Early optimism over the government reopening lifted the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ to record highs, but gains faded as growth and AI stocks sold off on tempered rate-cut expectations. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ eked out gains, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed lower.Shutdown Relief: The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill extending federal spending through Jan 30 2026, ending the the longest-ever shutdown. Stocks rallied briefly on the news before profit-taking set in.Fed Tone: Officials pushed back on aggressive easing bets. St. Louis Fed President Musalem sai

Last Week's Recap1. U.S. Market - Strong Week Caps a Solid OctoberIndexes: U.S. stocks extended their rally for a third consecutive week, with all major indexes notching new highs amid upbeat corporate results.October Recap: Wall Street logged a sixth straight monthly gain, with the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ posted its longest winning streak since 2018, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged ~4.7%, marking seven consecutive monthly advances — its best run since 2018 — powered by Big Tech earnings. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ also rose about 2.3% for the month.FOMC: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps and announced plans to end quantitative tightening by restarting balance-she

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - All-Time HighsIndexes: All major U.S. indexes surged to record highs on Friday, capping a strong week driven by a cooler inflation print and robust corporate earnings. The S&P 500 topped $6,800 and gained over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq and Dow also notched their second winning week in a row despite midweek volatility.CPI: September CPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts at both remaining Fed meetings this year. Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY, while core CPI advanced 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY.Earnings season: Remains the dominant short-term driver, with some official macro prints delayed.The earnings beats seen this third-quarter reporting season are driving higher-than-average equity returns, according to Bar

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - All indexes ralliedIndexes: Major U.S. indexes ended the week in positive territory despite sharp intraday swings. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, rebounding as investors digested a softer U.S. tone on China trade talks and moved past Thursday’s regional bank scare. The Russell 2000 hit record highs midweek but sharply reversed as credit concerns in regional banks triggered a sell-off.VIX: The VIX spiked above 28 at Friday’s open before retreating back near 20, underscoring the market’s tug-of-war between policy headlines, tariff risks, and strong corporate earnings.Crypto: Bitcoin briefly tumbled to 103,530 on Friday, highlighting stress among speculative assets and amplifying broader market risk sentiment.Tariff Tone eases: Trump struck a more conciliatory tone,

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - A dramatic Sell-offIndexes: The week finished weak after a dramatic Friday sell-off. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record highs midweek, only to see gains erased in the strongest single-day decline since April after tariff headlines hit sentiment.VIX: The VIX spiked above 22, snapping nearly four months of calm, complacent grinding to new highs. The surge in volatility underscored a sudden demand for protection as risk appetite evaporated.Crypto: Crypto and crypto-exposed names were especially volatile — Bitcoin and Ethereum printed new all-time highs earlier in the week before capitulating on Friday’s risk-off move. Bitcoin plunged 6% Friday, breaking below $120,000, amplifying broader market stress.Trump’s tariff: An unexpected announcement

September just broke with the usual seasonal weakness and delivered an exceptionally strong monthly performance. The S&P 500 rose approximately 3.5% in September (the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 4.2% in September over the past five years), marking its fifth consecutive monthly gain and driving the third quarter's overall gain to 7.8%. AI and technology drove the Nasdaq's 5.6% surge in September, its sixth consecutive month of gains. A key sign of increased risk appetite was the small-cap Russell 2000 index reaching a new all-time high, its highest level since late 2021, indicating both strong momentum and increased market breadth.U.S. Stock Market Index Returns (September 2025)IndexSeptember ReturnQ3YTDDow Jones Industrial Average1.90%5.20%9.00%S&P 5003.50%7.80%13.80%Nasda

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - Stalled at Record HighsIndexes: Stocks started the week at record highs, fueled by optimism over the Nvidia–OpenAI deal. But that early strength faded as the week wore on, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.31% and the Nasdaq off 0.65%, snapping a three-week winning streak.Inflation: August’s PCE inflation reading landed right on expectations (headline +2.7% y/y; core +2.9%), reinforcing the picture of inflation that’s sticky but not accelerating—enough to keep the Fed on its toes, but not enough to derail easing expectations.Powell Speech: Powell (Sept. 23) doubled down on a data-dependent approach. His remarks on economic challenges and stock valuations added to market volatility.Tariffs: President Trump announced new tariffs, including 100% duties on patented

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - Indexes at Record HighsMajor indexes: The S&P 500 (+1.22%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.21%) and Dow (+1.05%) closed the week at fresh record highs and posted their third (S&P/Nasdaq) / second (Dow) consecutive weekly gains, with the Nasdaq leading on tech strength. The benchmark average broke 6,600 and closed the week at 6,631.96. The small-cap Russell 2000 notched its seventh weekly advance.Fed rate cut: As expected, the Federal Reserve lower the policy rate by 25 bps (to a 4.00%–4.25% range) and signaled the possibility of additional cuts later in 2025. Powell’s press conference reiterated the Fed’s dual-mandate focus and emphasized labor-market risks. However, the "dot plot" projections showed policymakers were closely divided: Nine penciled in just one