OgdenHerbert

    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-20
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Wow! SP is $172.37 (3.05%) PreM. We ONLY take 6 days of +3%, SP will exceed $200 per share. Perhaps, SP can surpass $200 b4 ER next month, which it may be faster than I thought. 👍👍Well, it's an election year and what can you say? After all, even our Fed influenced by the government to show some respect cut double to ensure the economy is okay!🤐
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-13
      $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ SMCI is far far far from an obvious long term hold. I used to think this myself, in fact I’ve made a couple of posts thinking they were undervalued at $600 couple of months ago. SMCI is a terrible business with next to no moat, there is significant competition in the server rack space. Their profitability margins are very low. Shares are diluted and they keep talking about wanting to raise capital = more dilution. Never good for a stock with this low margins. They are heavily impacted by the delays from nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , TSMC $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and the rest of the semiconductor manufacturing compan
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-13
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I don't understand why this is not at 190 yet. 3nm nodes are fully booked until 2026. Samsung and TSMC now jointly build new hbm bufferless AI memory. Arizona foundry seems back on track. Adbanced Package capacity will further increase until end of the year ...
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-12
      $Apple(AAPL)$ The average consumer doesnt want AI. People who have iphones care more about the social aspects of the phone. They also care about other people knowing they have the newest iphone and this phone doesnt look different enough to warrant upgrading their social circle phone status.Better yet, i live in Europe all those AI features will probarly never even work here due to rules and regulations. Even now i have a lot of features on my iPhone that wont work. Besides AI this was a very lackluster presentation. Nothing had any real innovation. They really hit the silicone ceiling
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-12
      $Broadcom(AVGO)$ CPI report pretty much confirmed 25 points rate cut next week, which is great news for us and wider stock market as the bigger cut flags recession fears, onwards and upwards, will close above $155 today IMHO, still heavily undervalued at current prices, fwd pe is just 25 here 😊🚀
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-10
      $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ They barely make a couple billion a year in REVENUE, giving them a P/S ratio of 34. That is absurd. All this is based on this idea that ARM can be the chip of the future and such. That just isn't happening. ARM already holds around half of all chips in the world sold under its architecture, yet somehow it still has really low earnings and sales. This is because licensing and royalties are just not super profitable. There's a reason x86 isn't exactly making Intel billions.It'll probably stay high for a long time, because that's just how bubbles work, but eventually it has to crash; otherwise, it'll have to grow an INSANE amount over the coming years to justify that price.
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-10

      Betting on SMCI with Growth and Risk in Balance

      $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ I bought more smci on Friday on top of purchases over the last one month, trying to build a long term position. Being a company with great growth prospects, and currently with the lowest peg ratio forward and lowest forward price to sales ratio of anything in the industry.It's very rare to find a high growth stock in a value range but obviously the risk is that the CEO doesn't file the 10K by the deadline and that is eligible for punishment by the SEC and fines and removal from the S and P 500 and then the ultimate penalty of delisting off the exchange, this is nerve wracking., and I have no insider information which is the only kind of information that would help any one right now. So it's up to the SMCI executive
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      Betting on SMCI with Growth and Risk in Balance
    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-10
      $Intel(INTC)$ What do you expect from the leadership discussion in the midst of September, when they talk on the future of Intel ? What will they sell ? Altera, Mobileye, some Foundry, others ? Can they rise the share price, as it was suggested earlier ? I think, that they will be the same amateur, as they were before last ER and earlier. I mean, they will announce in September, that "we still did not make any decision, we will discuss again later." So nothing positive for the share price.
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·09-10
      $Broadcom(AVGO)$ I know newer traders and investors are hype go-go on splits these days. But Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ rocketing on the split had little to do with the stock splitting. Now we are seeing what happens to growth stocks after splits - the day traders come in and churn them to the downside. While this is minimal and only short term with growth like Nvidia and Broadcom, be very careful and fully understand the trading pattern of stock splits from 1800 to sub 150.00. They are long-term investments through volatility, not buy the news events in most cases.Best of luck AVGO longs.
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    • OgdenHerbertOgdenHerbert
      ·08-09
      $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $COIN It's probably just a coincidence that this pivot point that I had placed on my chart in February, just happened to serve as support.Discloser It wasn't on my watch list during the sell off.Too many other good stocks that I liked that morning.
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