To The Moon

The stock and bond market are volatile in recent weeks. However, there is a very certain investing opportunity: US Treasuries will rise as the fund rate are already very high.Let's look at the fundamentals and technical analysis of US Treasuries!Fundamentally - Treasury yields already peak1.Interest rate will peak soon -only 0.75% from the expected fund rateAnalysts currently believe thatFed will stop raising rates to between 5.25%-5.5%, and will not cut rates without a recession.For reference, current fund rate is 4.5%-4.75%.data from cmegroupCurrent US Treasury yields already priced in

The first quadruple witching day of 2023 is coming on Friday (17/3/2023) trading. U.S. stocks set for wild swings as trillions in options contracts set to expire Friday.What is Quadruple Witching?Quadruple witching refers to a date where stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. The final trading day for stock options is generally the third Friday of every month.Previous, Days like these sometimes coincide with volatility in markets as traders scramble to cut their losses or exercise “in the money” contracts to claim their winnings.Goldman Sachs estimates that 2.8 trillion quarterly options will expire this Friday, including $1.8 trillion index options. Indexes volatility is expected to increase. Therefore, investors should sti

$Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ a major Swiss bank, plunged over 20% premarket. It is facing financial difficulties and a loss of investor confidence.1) Liquidity riskThe bank is also reportedly facing widening credit default swap spreads, which is a sign of increased investor concern about its ability to meet its financial obligations.In late 2022 the bank disclosed that it was seeing“significantly higher withdrawals of cash deposits, non-renewal of maturing time deposits and net asset outflows at levels that substantially exceeded the rates incurred in the third quarter of 2022.”Credit Suisse saw customer withdrawals of more than 110 billion Swiss francs in the fourth quarter, as a string of scandals

Investors swarmed into U.S government bonds Monday after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent government backstop of the banking system. The rush sent Treasury yields tumbling.1. The largest three-day decline since Oct. 22, 1987The yield on the 2-year Treasury $US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ was last trading at 4.03%, down 12.16% on Monday trading, marking the largest three-day decline since Oct. 22, 1987.That move followed the Oct. 19, 1987 stock market crash — known as “Black Monday” in which the S&P 500 plunged 20% for its worst one-day drop. The move was bigger than the 2-year yield slide of 63 basis points that took place in three days following the 9/11 attacks.The yield on the

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pushed the US Treasury yield to its worst inversion since 1981 on Tuesday, renewing concerns about what many investors see as a long-awaited recession signal. US equity markets closed lower, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down -1.53%. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ 1. Why will US stocks fall as US Treasury yields grow? Does the rise of Treasury yields necessarily mean the decline of US stocks?The answer is not necessarily yes, but in mose cases they are negatively&nbs

Bitcoin prices are over $24,701 now and the YTD in 2023 is over 48%.Do you trade bitcoin recently, will the up trend continue? Do you know some ETFs worth following up?Cryptocurrencies rise along with global stock markets in 2023,Why?One reply from google:The other reason for Bitcoin to rally in 2023 is the U.S. Fed's latest less aggressive rate hike of just 25 basis points, which helped Bitcoin to maintain its rising trajectory and outperform as compared to other asset classes.Seems inflation is a key factor in Bitcoin's price in 2023, with investors betting that the Fed's rate hikes can curb inflation without dragging the U.S. into recession.Some other reasons may include: Investors expect that cryptocurrencies will get rid of the blow of U.S. regulation; in

The January CPI is expected to show a 6.2% year-over-year increase, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.JPMorgan’s sales and trading desk expects $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to add between 1.5% and 2% in Tuesday’s session before seeing the rally fade. The desk is in alignment with the Dow Jones polled economists, most likely expecting CPI to show an increase of 6% and 6.3% in January from the same month a year prior.Here’s the desk’s full estimates for how the market could move in response to varying readings, with the likelihood that each case is correct:5% probability — CPI above 6.5% — “This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis” —S&P 500 down 2.5% to 3%25% probability — CPI between 6.4% and 6.5% — “The hawkish

One of the hot spots this week is the upcoming FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will announce the interest rate resolution in the early hours of Thursday.​​After the CPI data was released in December, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates to "reduce fever". Based on the current general expectation, raising interest rates by 25 basis points is basically "certain" (read more:The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. What are the factors affecting the market outlook.Yesterday, just as the "Super Central Bank Week" approached, just after a wave of big rises, US stocks collectively weakened,$Dow Jones (. DJI) $It ended six consecutive gains and closed down 0.77% to 33,717.09 points. The three major stock indexes,S&P 500 (. SPX) $It fell by 1.3

The US dollar $USD Index (USDindex.FOREX)$ has maintained a downward trend recently.  In early January 2023, the scale of hedge funds' shorting of the US dollar has hit a one-and-a-half-year high.US Dollar Shorts Become Favorite Trade as the growing view that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest-rate hikes is likely to keep selling pressure on the US currency.While the US dollar continued to fall, many non-US currencies have recently rebounded. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows leveraged funds have cut yen shorts to the lowest level since February 2021. They also trimmed bearish bets on the Aussie while switching to net longs on the New Zealand dollar.The strong dollar ends？In

The biggest market concern yesterday was not Tesla's plunge, but $Apple(AAPL)$'s 4.8% plunge, makinh its market cap dropping below$2 trillion.It's reported thatApple's Chinese supply chain manufacturers have received notices from Apple to reduce the number of orders. There are numerous products involved: AirPods, Apple Watch and MacBooks.It makes more sense to understand the present than to predict the future. For example, we should understand that the current Hong Kong/Chinese market is worth to invest in;understand that energy is a sector that is losing momentum (crude oil was back to $80 at the end of the year after I was last bearish, but quickly fell to $74 in the New Year);understand that high CPI