Wow-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
1
Favorite

Khing
2021-07-15

Wow

In the era of "everything rises", how to fight inflation?

如果你在6月买东西时，花的钱比3月多，但买到的东西却减少，这是什么原因呢？这就是通货膨胀。在美国疯狂印钱放水之后，猛烈的通货膨胀终于来了。美国劳工部在7月14日表示，6月消费者价格指数（即CPI）

In the era of "everything rises", how to fight inflation?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment（1）

Top
Latest

Khing
·2021-07-15
wow
Reply
Like
Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":147330970,"tweetId":"147330970","gmtCreate":1626333183890,"gmtModify":1703758075202,"author":{"id":4087525630006260,"idStr":"4087525630006260","authorId":4087525630006260,"authorIdStr":"4087525630006260","name":"Khing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8ec9b0a8e06d222fcc8b6eec1fa30","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow</p></body></html>","text":"Wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147330970","repostId":2151544921,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151544921","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经纬创投公众平台，创享汇，新闻发布官方平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"经纬创投","id":"74","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c12027b4d84f89b5da0a5de2093ad1"},"pubTimestamp":1626333115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151544921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"In the era of \"everything rises\", how to fight inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151544921","media":"经纬创投","summary":"如果你在6月买东西时，花的钱比3月多，但买到的东西却减少，这是什么原因呢？\n这就是通货膨胀。在美国疯狂印钱放水之后，猛烈的通货膨胀终于来了。\n美国劳工部在7月14日表示，6月消费者价格指数（即CPI）","content":"<p>If when you buy something in June, you spend more money than you did in March, but buy less, what is the reason for this?</p><p><b>This is inflation. After the United States frantically printed money and released water, violent inflation finally came.</b></p><p>The U.S. Department of Labor said on July 14 that the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.4% in June compared with the same period last year. This number is quite scary,<b>It is the highest increase since the 2008 financial crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11da2dac1c594106930fc74d2a423bba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The macro economy took the lead. U.S. stocks fell immediately after the inflation data was released, while Treasury Bond yields rose. The crazy release of water and rising inflation in the United States are also affecting the global economy, including us on the other side of the ocean.</p><p>China's State Council also recently stated that it will take measures to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and curb unreasonable price increases.<b>Only by cooling the market in a timely manner can we ensure the overall economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic and will not be hurt by the skyrocketing commodity prices.</b></p><p>So living in the era of \"everything goes up\", what can we do to resist these effects?</p><p><h3>1</h3><b>\"Everything rises\"</b></p><p>It is not easy to make an accurate prediction of CPI.</p><p>In U.S. President Joe Biden's official budget request released this spring, officials predicted that inflation in 2021 would remain near historical averages and would not exceed 2.3%.<b>But this prediction was wrong.</b>Some Republicans launched an attack on this, pointing out that the rapid rise in CPI is a sign of economic mismanagement by the Biden administration.</p><p>CPI can be said to be one of the most closely related economic indicators to everyone's daily life. It measures how much consumers pay for goods and services, including clothing, everyday consumer goods, restaurant meals, recreational activities, and vehicles.</p><p>The greater the increase in CPI, the higher the cost of living for people. This time, one-third of the biggest increase in the United States was driven by the price increase of second-hand cars and trucks, while the price of plane tickets and clothing also rose sharply.</p><p>Inflation is a natural result of economic development. Benign inflation is where rising wages and consumer prices reinforce each other in a spiral, as workers bargain to raise wages to cover the rising cost of living, while employers pass higher labor costs on to consumers.</p><p><b>But if inflation rises faster than salaries, it erases wage growth for workers, increases the cost of living for families and reduces the quality of life.</b></p><p>With the large-scale release of water by global central banks after the epidemic, the rising prices of commodities and raw materials cannot be ignored.</p><p>Certain risk factors have emerged in the United States. Many big companies believe that price pressures persist.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">Pepsi Cola</a>The CFO said on the earnings call that they expect raw material, labor and transportation costs to all rise. \"Are we going to respond with higher pricing? Of course it is.\"</p><p><b>In April this year, the prices of many raw materials around the world soared to record highs, with timber, iron ore, and copper all hitting new highs; Corn, soybeans and wheat prices also jumped to eight-year highs; Oil prices recently hit a two-year high. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the world has not seen such a comprehensive rise in commodity prices.</b></p><p>The price is transmitted step by step. With the rise of commodities, U.S. house prices have also reached the level of 2006 before the housing bubble burst, and the stock market is also rising. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones are constantly breaking records. It can almost be said that \"everything is rising\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09378858a4354b52b8b366573c31c600\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Dow Jones Market Data, in the United States, the S&P 500 P/E is currently around 26 times. Another measure of valuation, Shiller P/E P/E, is even higher at 37.6 x, the highest in roughly two decades. This measure looks at earnings over the past 10 years and is adjusted for inflation. The measure peaked at 44.2 in December 1999.</p><p><b>But a high market valuation doesn't necessarily mean a collapse, and an early exit can miss out on high returns for years.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic, the era of low interest rates that swept the world began, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to near zero and ramping up its bond-buying program, while Congress approved trillions of dollars in stimulus measures to help the economy recover from the shutdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15cbb8ccf8540c9be19d4cd303602fc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the economy finally contracted for the first time since 2009, these interventions helped the market rebound strongly from the bear market lows and caused \"everything to rise.\"</p><p><h3>2</h3><b>What is the situation in China?</b></p><p>Americans are facing rising prices for eating out, staying in hotels or buying washing machines. So what is the situation here in China?</p><p><b>The first is the strong growth of exports.</b>Due to inflation in the United States, people's demand for cost-effective goods from China is also increasing.</p><p>The General Administration of Customs of China released data on July 13. Exports in June increased by 32.2% year-on-year, which was faster than the 27.9% growth rate in May. There was no situation that many economists had previously worried about. At that time, some people thought that in the post-epidemic period The export boom is coming to an end.</p><p>In addition, sporadic outbreaks in Guangdong Province in late May this year are also worried that they will affect exports because Shenzhen<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000088\">Yantian Port</a>It is one of the busiest ports in the world, accounting for 7% of the total port throughput in China. However, judging from the results, China's total exports in the first half of the year were far from showing signs of laxity, but jumped to the highest level in history, with monthly imports and exports growing year-on-year for 13 consecutive months.</p><p>In addition, China's trade surplus expanded to US $51.5 billion in June from US $45.5 billion in May. Economists had expected China's trade surplus to stabilize at $45.5 billion in June.</p><p><b>The second point is that the Chinese government has taken action to curb the excessive rise in commodity prices.</b>In the global market, major industrial commodities, including iron ore and copper, are soaring.</p><p>Since mid-May, Premier * of the State Council has spoken out on the issue of natural resources. Recently, six government agencies, including the State Administration for Market Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, jointly interviewed representatives of the commodity industry and affirmed that the government has a \"zero tolerance\" attitude towards illegal activities such as price gouging and hoarding. An announcement from China's National Development and Reform Commission shows that relevant departments will monitor the trend of markets such as copper and aluminum more closely.</p><p>China's attitude of curbing speculation is very firm, and it has also increased the margin of related futures trading and raised the trading rate. These measures have curbed speculative buying.</p><p><b>Since the official tough stance, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, rebar, aluminum and copper in the Chinese market have all declined.</b>If the soaring cost of raw materials is not curbed, these price increases will squeeze corporate profits, force them to raise the price of end products, and ultimately lead to a decline in residents' consumption power. These measures have ensured that the overall economic recovery in the post-epidemic era will not be hurt by skyrocketing raw material prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d75fc2c26e4043bf7cee88a5355052\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third impact is at the macroeconomic level.</b>Unlike the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve is already facing inflationary pressures and has begun to discuss tapering easing policies; The People's Bank of China, which slashed credit earlier this year, is now turning to easing to support the economy. On July 9th, the People's Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, releasing about RMB 1 trillion (US $154 billion) for banks to lend.</p><p>At the same time, China's CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, slightly lower than the 1.2% increase predicted by economists, and far lower than the 3% year-end target of relevant departments, so there is still a lot of room for monetary policy to play.</p><p>Among the CPI items, the price of food closely related to life dropped by 2.2%, mainly the price of pork continued to drop by 13.6%, while the price of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits dropped by 2.3% and 4.5% respectively. However, in terms of non-food prices, such as air tickets or oil prices, it is in line with the international increase.</p><p><b>Due to the negative impact of rising raw material prices on small and micro enterprises, the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is largely to support them. They are more vulnerable than large enterprises during the epidemic, especially when domestic consumption continues to be sluggish.</b></p><p><h3>3</h3><b>What can we do in the era of \"everything rises\"?</b></p><p>Nowadays, the United States, which has \"released the most water\", is experiencing unprecedented inflation. The large-scale release of water by other central banks has also given birth to the world entering an era of inflation. Will this be a temporary phenomenon, or will it mark a historic change? If it is long-term inflation, what can we do to deal with it?</p><p>1、<b>Gold.</b>If we really encounter the peak of inflation, the value preservation effect of buying gold will be very good.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>A study shows that even in countries where inflation rates have soared to double digits, gold can retain its value. The problem with gold, though, is that it does far less than stocks in normal times, and it doesn't provide income. And the foundation of gold's value is supported by the idea that most people believe that \"this precious metal is valuable\", and the Bitcoin craze may interfere with it.</p><p>2、<b>Commodities.</b>Inflation is when commodity prices rise, and commodities tend to rise the most because it takes a long time to build new capacity to meet demand. Just like copper and oil prices have risen by 30% this year, and lumber prices have doubled. But it is impossible for ordinary people to own warehouses or tankers to store these commodities, so they need to buy futures contracts. But the danger lies in the long-term return of futures contracts, which mainly depends on the difference between futures prices, rather than the underlying commodity itself. To make money from it, professionals are needed.</p><p>3、<b>Value stocks.</b>In an inflationary environment, those assets that rely on returns in the distant future will be left out in the cold, while assets that provide more certainty will surface. In short, the mode of excessive burning of money will become increasingly unrecognized, and the valuation premium people give to forward forecast profits will decline. At this time, stocks of companies with more certainty will be more sought after.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca548fc9969e4523a3a00b4cc3ce941a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, you need to build an anti-inflation investment portfolio in this era. If the general environment has not changed significantly, you can ignore it temporarily, but once you need to defend, you can quickly execute it.</p><p><b>So far, global inflation has nothing to do with Chinese consumers for the time being. It is mainly Chinese manufacturers, not consumers, who feel the price increase.</b>The main reason for manufacturers is that iron ore from Australia or corn from the United States are more expensive than before.</p><p>However, the government has announced subsidies for small and micro enterprises to help them bear the rising cost of global commodities. The government has also imposed new restrictions on commodity futures trading to curb speculation. In order to keep some products in the country more, the government has also increased export tariffs on certain steel products.</p><p><b>China's overcapacity of necessities such as clothing or household appliances is also protecting consumers.</b>Because in the supply chain, the party with less negotiation room will bear higher costs, and overcapacity ensures more choices for consumers, it is difficult for manufacturers to pass on price increases to consumers.</p><p>The appreciation of RMB may pass on some costs overseas. Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has appreciated by 2.2% against the US dollar. A year ago, one US dollar could be exchanged for 7.1 yuan RMB, but now it can only be exchanged for 6.4 yuan RMB, which will offset the price increase of some overseas raw materials.</p><p>But the RMB can't appreciate all the time, and it also has downsides. Because this means that Chinese exports are more expensive, which will weaken the global competitiveness of Chinese goods, the People's Bank of China warned foreign exchange traders in May not to think that further appreciation of RMB is a one-way bet.</p><p>Therefore, on the whole, controlling the epidemic and stabilizing prices are the top priorities.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the era of \"everything rises\", how to fight inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the era of \"everything rises\", how to fight inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/74\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c12027b4d84f89b5da0a5de2093ad1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">经纬创投 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 15:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If when you buy something in June, you spend more money than you did in March, but buy less, what is the reason for this?</p><p><b>This is inflation. After the United States frantically printed money and released water, violent inflation finally came.</b></p><p>The U.S. Department of Labor said on July 14 that the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.4% in June compared with the same period last year. This number is quite scary,<b>It is the highest increase since the 2008 financial crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11da2dac1c594106930fc74d2a423bba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The macro economy took the lead. U.S. stocks fell immediately after the inflation data was released, while Treasury Bond yields rose. The crazy release of water and rising inflation in the United States are also affecting the global economy, including us on the other side of the ocean.</p><p>China's State Council also recently stated that it will take measures to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and curb unreasonable price increases.<b>Only by cooling the market in a timely manner can we ensure the overall economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic and will not be hurt by the skyrocketing commodity prices.</b></p><p>So living in the era of \"everything goes up\", what can we do to resist these effects?</p><p><h3>1</h3><b>\"Everything rises\"</b></p><p>It is not easy to make an accurate prediction of CPI.</p><p>In U.S. President Joe Biden's official budget request released this spring, officials predicted that inflation in 2021 would remain near historical averages and would not exceed 2.3%.<b>But this prediction was wrong.</b>Some Republicans launched an attack on this, pointing out that the rapid rise in CPI is a sign of economic mismanagement by the Biden administration.</p><p>CPI can be said to be one of the most closely related economic indicators to everyone's daily life. It measures how much consumers pay for goods and services, including clothing, everyday consumer goods, restaurant meals, recreational activities, and vehicles.</p><p>The greater the increase in CPI, the higher the cost of living for people. This time, one-third of the biggest increase in the United States was driven by the price increase of second-hand cars and trucks, while the price of plane tickets and clothing also rose sharply.</p><p>Inflation is a natural result of economic development. Benign inflation is where rising wages and consumer prices reinforce each other in a spiral, as workers bargain to raise wages to cover the rising cost of living, while employers pass higher labor costs on to consumers.</p><p><b>But if inflation rises faster than salaries, it erases wage growth for workers, increases the cost of living for families and reduces the quality of life.</b></p><p>With the large-scale release of water by global central banks after the epidemic, the rising prices of commodities and raw materials cannot be ignored.</p><p>Certain risk factors have emerged in the United States. Many big companies believe that price pressures persist.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">Pepsi Cola</a>The CFO said on the earnings call that they expect raw material, labor and transportation costs to all rise. \"Are we going to respond with higher pricing? Of course it is.\"</p><p><b>In April this year, the prices of many raw materials around the world soared to record highs, with timber, iron ore, and copper all hitting new highs; Corn, soybeans and wheat prices also jumped to eight-year highs; Oil prices recently hit a two-year high. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the world has not seen such a comprehensive rise in commodity prices.</b></p><p>The price is transmitted step by step. With the rise of commodities, U.S. house prices have also reached the level of 2006 before the housing bubble burst, and the stock market is also rising. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones are constantly breaking records. It can almost be said that \"everything is rising\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09378858a4354b52b8b366573c31c600\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Dow Jones Market Data, in the United States, the S&P 500 P/E is currently around 26 times. Another measure of valuation, Shiller P/E P/E, is even higher at 37.6 x, the highest in roughly two decades. This measure looks at earnings over the past 10 years and is adjusted for inflation. The measure peaked at 44.2 in December 1999.</p><p><b>But a high market valuation doesn't necessarily mean a collapse, and an early exit can miss out on high returns for years.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic, the era of low interest rates that swept the world began, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to near zero and ramping up its bond-buying program, while Congress approved trillions of dollars in stimulus measures to help the economy recover from the shutdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15cbb8ccf8540c9be19d4cd303602fc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the economy finally contracted for the first time since 2009, these interventions helped the market rebound strongly from the bear market lows and caused \"everything to rise.\"</p><p><h3>2</h3><b>What is the situation in China?</b></p><p>Americans are facing rising prices for eating out, staying in hotels or buying washing machines. So what is the situation here in China?</p><p><b>The first is the strong growth of exports.</b>Due to inflation in the United States, people's demand for cost-effective goods from China is also increasing.</p><p>The General Administration of Customs of China released data on July 13. Exports in June increased by 32.2% year-on-year, which was faster than the 27.9% growth rate in May. There was no situation that many economists had previously worried about. At that time, some people thought that in the post-epidemic period The export boom is coming to an end.</p><p>In addition, sporadic outbreaks in Guangdong Province in late May this year are also worried that they will affect exports because Shenzhen<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000088\">Yantian Port</a>It is one of the busiest ports in the world, accounting for 7% of the total port throughput in China. However, judging from the results, China's total exports in the first half of the year were far from showing signs of laxity, but jumped to the highest level in history, with monthly imports and exports growing year-on-year for 13 consecutive months.</p><p>In addition, China's trade surplus expanded to US $51.5 billion in June from US $45.5 billion in May. Economists had expected China's trade surplus to stabilize at $45.5 billion in June.</p><p><b>The second point is that the Chinese government has taken action to curb the excessive rise in commodity prices.</b>In the global market, major industrial commodities, including iron ore and copper, are soaring.</p><p>Since mid-May, Premier * of the State Council has spoken out on the issue of natural resources. Recently, six government agencies, including the State Administration for Market Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, jointly interviewed representatives of the commodity industry and affirmed that the government has a \"zero tolerance\" attitude towards illegal activities such as price gouging and hoarding. An announcement from China's National Development and Reform Commission shows that relevant departments will monitor the trend of markets such as copper and aluminum more closely.</p><p>China's attitude of curbing speculation is very firm, and it has also increased the margin of related futures trading and raised the trading rate. These measures have curbed speculative buying.</p><p><b>Since the official tough stance, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, rebar, aluminum and copper in the Chinese market have all declined.</b>If the soaring cost of raw materials is not curbed, these price increases will squeeze corporate profits, force them to raise the price of end products, and ultimately lead to a decline in residents' consumption power. These measures have ensured that the overall economic recovery in the post-epidemic era will not be hurt by skyrocketing raw material prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d75fc2c26e4043bf7cee88a5355052\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third impact is at the macroeconomic level.</b>Unlike the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve is already facing inflationary pressures and has begun to discuss tapering easing policies; The People's Bank of China, which slashed credit earlier this year, is now turning to easing to support the economy. On July 9th, the People's Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, releasing about RMB 1 trillion (US $154 billion) for banks to lend.</p><p>At the same time, China's CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, slightly lower than the 1.2% increase predicted by economists, and far lower than the 3% year-end target of relevant departments, so there is still a lot of room for monetary policy to play.</p><p>Among the CPI items, the price of food closely related to life dropped by 2.2%, mainly the price of pork continued to drop by 13.6%, while the price of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits dropped by 2.3% and 4.5% respectively. However, in terms of non-food prices, such as air tickets or oil prices, it is in line with the international increase.</p><p><b>Due to the negative impact of rising raw material prices on small and micro enterprises, the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is largely to support them. They are more vulnerable than large enterprises during the epidemic, especially when domestic consumption continues to be sluggish.</b></p><p><h3>3</h3><b>What can we do in the era of \"everything rises\"?</b></p><p>Nowadays, the United States, which has \"released the most water\", is experiencing unprecedented inflation. The large-scale release of water by other central banks has also given birth to the world entering an era of inflation. Will this be a temporary phenomenon, or will it mark a historic change? If it is long-term inflation, what can we do to deal with it?</p><p>1、<b>Gold.</b>If we really encounter the peak of inflation, the value preservation effect of buying gold will be very good.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>A study shows that even in countries where inflation rates have soared to double digits, gold can retain its value. The problem with gold, though, is that it does far less than stocks in normal times, and it doesn't provide income. And the foundation of gold's value is supported by the idea that most people believe that \"this precious metal is valuable\", and the Bitcoin craze may interfere with it.</p><p>2、<b>Commodities.</b>Inflation is when commodity prices rise, and commodities tend to rise the most because it takes a long time to build new capacity to meet demand. Just like copper and oil prices have risen by 30% this year, and lumber prices have doubled. But it is impossible for ordinary people to own warehouses or tankers to store these commodities, so they need to buy futures contracts. But the danger lies in the long-term return of futures contracts, which mainly depends on the difference between futures prices, rather than the underlying commodity itself. To make money from it, professionals are needed.</p><p>3、<b>Value stocks.</b>In an inflationary environment, those assets that rely on returns in the distant future will be left out in the cold, while assets that provide more certainty will surface. In short, the mode of excessive burning of money will become increasingly unrecognized, and the valuation premium people give to forward forecast profits will decline. At this time, stocks of companies with more certainty will be more sought after.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca548fc9969e4523a3a00b4cc3ce941a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, you need to build an anti-inflation investment portfolio in this era. If the general environment has not changed significantly, you can ignore it temporarily, but once you need to defend, you can quickly execute it.</p><p><b>So far, global inflation has nothing to do with Chinese consumers for the time being. It is mainly Chinese manufacturers, not consumers, who feel the price increase.</b>The main reason for manufacturers is that iron ore from Australia or corn from the United States are more expensive than before.</p><p>However, the government has announced subsidies for small and micro enterprises to help them bear the rising cost of global commodities. The government has also imposed new restrictions on commodity futures trading to curb speculation. In order to keep some products in the country more, the government has also increased export tariffs on certain steel products.</p><p><b>China's overcapacity of necessities such as clothing or household appliances is also protecting consumers.</b>Because in the supply chain, the party with less negotiation room will bear higher costs, and overcapacity ensures more choices for consumers, it is difficult for manufacturers to pass on price increases to consumers.</p><p>The appreciation of RMB may pass on some costs overseas. Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has appreciated by 2.2% against the US dollar. A year ago, one US dollar could be exchanged for 7.1 yuan RMB, but now it can only be exchanged for 6.4 yuan RMB, which will offset the price increase of some overseas raw materials.</p><p>But the RMB can't appreciate all the time, and it also has downsides. Because this means that Chinese exports are more expensive, which will weaken the global competitiveness of Chinese goods, the People's Bank of China warned foreign exchange traders in May not to think that further appreciation of RMB is a one-way bet.</p><p>Therefore, on the whole, controlling the epidemic and stabilizing prices are the top priorities.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa513d34fe7fa0a4ae0dccb74b5e4d71","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151544921","content_text":"如果你在6月买东西时，花的钱比3月多，但买到的东西却减少，这是什么原因呢？\n这就是通货膨胀。在美国疯狂印钱放水之后，猛烈的通货膨胀终于来了。\n美国劳工部在7月14日表示，6月消费者价格指数（即CPI）较上年同期上升5.4%。这个数字挺恐怖，是2008年金融危机以来的最高升幅。\n\n宏观经济牵一发而动全身，美国股市在通胀数据公布后立即下跌，而国债收益率上升。美国的疯狂放水和通胀上升，也在影响着全球经济，包括大洋彼岸的我们。\n中国国务院近期也表示，将采取措施保障大宗商品供给，遏制价格不合理上涨。适时给市场降温，才能确保新冠疫情后的整体经济复苏，不会受大宗商品价格疯涨的伤害。\n那么生活在“万物上涨”的时代，我们可以做些什么来抵御这些影响？\n1\n“万物上涨”\n对CPI的准确预测并不容易。\n美国总统拜登在今年春天发布的官方预算申请中，官员们预测2021年的通货膨胀率将保持在历史平均水平附近，并且不会超过2.3%，但这个预测错了。有共和党人就此展开攻击，指出CPI快速上涨，是拜登政府经济管理不善的一个迹象。\nCPI可以说是与每个人的日常生活，最息息相关的经济指标之一。它衡量了消费者为商品和服务所支付的费用，包括服装、日常消费品、餐厅餐食、娱乐活动和车辆。\nCPI增幅越大则人们的生活成本越高。这一次美国的最大升幅，其中三分之一受二手轿车和卡车的价格上涨拉动，同时飞机票和服装价格也大幅上升。\n通货膨胀是经济发展的自然结果。良性的通货膨胀是，不断上涨的工资和消费价格相互促进，呈螺旋式上升，因为工人会讨价还价来提高工资，用以支付不断攀升的生活成本，而雇主将更高的劳动力成本转嫁给消费者。\n但如果通胀的增长速度快于薪水，就抹去了工人的工资增长，使家庭生活成本上升，生活质量下降。\n随着疫情后全球央行大规模放水，大宗商品、原材料的价格上涨已经不容忽视。\n某些危险因素在美国已经出现了。很多大公司都认为价格压力持续存在。百事可乐的CFO在财报电话会议上说，他们预计原材料、劳动力和运输成本都将上升，“我们要用提高定价来应对吗？当然是。”\n今年4月，全球很多原材料的价格都飙升至历史高点，木材、铁矿石、铜都创下新高；玉米、大豆和小麦价格也纷纷跃升至八年高位；油价最近则触及两年最高。自2008年金融危机爆发以来，全球还未出现过如此全面的大宗商品价格上涨。\n价格是一步一步传导的。随着大宗商品的上涨，美国房价也达到了房地产泡沫破裂前2006年的水平，股市也在不断上涨，标普500和道琼斯都在不断破纪录，几乎可以说是“万物上涨”。\n\n根据Dow Jones Market Data，在美国，标普500指数市盈率目前在26倍左右。另一个衡量估值的指标席勒市盈率（Shiller P/E）甚至更高，达到37.6倍，大约是二十年来的最高值。这一衡量标准着眼于过去10年的收益并经过了通货膨胀调整，该指标在1999年12月达到了44.2的峰值。\n但市场估值高不一定就会崩溃，过早退场可能会错失长达数年的高回报。疫情爆发后，横扫全球的低利率时代开启，美联储将利率降至接近零的水平，并加大了债券购买计划的力度，同时国会批准了数万亿美元的刺激措施，以帮助经济从停摆中复苏。\n\n尽管经济最终出现了2009年以来的首次萎缩，但这些干预措施帮助市场从熊市低点强劲反弹，并导致“万物上涨”。\n2\n中国的情况如何？\n美国人正面临外出吃饭、住酒店或是买洗衣机都在涨价，那么中国这边的情况如何？\n首先是出口强劲增长。由于美国通胀，人们对来自中国高性价比商品的需求也在加大。\n中国海关总署在7月13日公布数据，6月份出口同比增长32.2%，比5月份27.9%的增速有所加快，完全没有出现很多经济学家此前担心的情况，当时有人认为在后疫情时期出口繁荣即将结束。\n此外，今年5月下旬广东省出现的零星疫情也被担心会影响出口，因为深圳盐田港是全球最繁忙港口之一，它占全国港口总吞吐量的7%。但从结果来看，中国上半年的出口总额远未显示出松懈迹象，而是跃升至历史最高水平，月度进口和出口都已连续13个月实现同比增长。\n此外，6月中国贸易顺差从5月的455亿美元，扩大至515亿美元。而经济学家此前预计中国6月贸易顺差将稳定在455亿美元。\n第二点是中国政府出手遏制大宗商品价格过快上涨。在全球市场上，包括铁矿石、铜在内的主要工业用大宗商品正在飙涨。\n自5月中旬以来，国务院总理李克强就对自然资源问题发声，近期包括中国国家市场监管总局和证监会在内的六家政府机构，联合约谈了大宗商品行业代表，申明政府对操纵市场、哄抬价格、囤积居奇等违法行为采取“零容忍”态度。中国国家发改委的一份公告显示，有关部门将更加密切地监测铜和铝等市场的走势。\n中国遏制投机的态度很坚决，还提高了相关期货交易保证金、上调交易费率等，这些举措抑制了投机性买盘。\n自官方强硬立场以来，中国市场铁矿石、螺纹钢、铝和铜等原材料的价格都有所下降。如果不遏制原材料成本飙升的走势，这些涨价将挤压企业利润，迫使他们将终端产品涨价，最终导致居民消费力下降。这些举措都确保了后疫情时代的整体经济复苏，不会受到原材料价格疯涨的伤害。\n\n第三点影响则是在宏观经济层面。不同于美联储，美联储已经在面临通胀压力，开始讨论缩减宽松政策；而中国央行在今年早些时候大幅缩减信贷，如今正转向宽松来支持经济。7月9日，中国央行下调了金融机构存款准备金率，释放资金约人民币1万亿元（合1540亿美元）供银行放贷。\n与此同时，中国6月CPI同比上升1.1%，略低于经济学家预测的1.2%的升幅，并远低于有关部门3%的年终目标，所以货币政策的发挥空间还是很大的。\n在CPI各项目中，与生活息息相关的食品价格下降了2.2%，主要是猪肉价格续降13.6%，而鲜菜、鲜果各降2.3%和4.5%，但在非食品价格方面，例如机票或是油价，与国际涨幅相符。\n由于原材料价格上涨对小微企业产生负面影响，下调存款准备金率很大程度上是为了支持他们，在疫情中他们比大型企业更容易受创，特别是在国内消费持续低迷的情况下。\n3\n“万物上涨”时代，我们能做些什么？\n如今“放水”最多的美国，正经历史无前例的通货膨胀，其他国家央行的大规模放水也催生了全球进入通胀时代，这会是一种暂时现象，还是标志着一种历史性转变？如果是长期通胀，我们可以做何应对？\n1、黄金。如果我们真的遭遇了通胀高峰，买黄金的保值效果会非常好，瑞士信贷的一项研究表明，即使在那些通胀率飙升到两位数的国家，黄金也能保值。不过黄金的问题是，在正常时期它的表现远不如股票，而且不能提供收入。并且黄金价值的根基，是由大部分人认为“这种贵金属是有价值的”理念来支撑，比特币热潮就可能会对其造成干扰。\n2、大宗商品。通货膨胀就是商品价格上涨，而大宗商品往往涨幅最大，因为需要很长时间才能建立新的产能来满足需求。就像今年以来铜、石油价格上涨了30%，木材价格翻倍。但普通人不可能拥有仓库或是油轮来储存这些商品，那就需要购买期货合约。但危险在于期货合约的长期回报，主要取决于各期货价格之间的差异，而不是标的商品本身，要想从中赚钱需要专业人士。\n3、价值股。在通胀环境下，那些依靠遥远未来回报的资产，将受到冷落，而提供更有确定性的资产将浮出水面。简而言之，过分烧钱的模式将越来越不受认可，人们给予远期预测利润的估值溢价将下降。此时，更有确定性的公司股票将更受追捧。\n\n总之，你需要在这个时代打造一个抗通胀投资组合，如果大环境未发生明显变化，可以暂时不理，但一旦需要防御的时候，可以快速执行。\n到目前为止，全球通胀暂时与中国消费者还没啥关系，感受到价格上涨的主要是中国制造商，而不是消费者，制造商的主要原因是来自澳大利亚的铁矿石，或是来自美国的玉米都比以前更贵了。\n不过政府已经宣布了对小微企业的补贴，帮助它们承担全球大宗商品不断上升的成本。政府还对商品期货交易施加了新的限制，以抑制投机行为。为了让一些产品更多地留在国内，政府还提高了某些钢铁产品的出口关税。\n中国的服装或是家用电器等必需品的产能过剩，也在保护消费者。因为在供应链上，谈判余地较小的一方将承担更高成本，产能过剩保证了消费者有更多选择，制造商很难将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。\n人民币升值可能把一些成本转嫁到海外，自今年年初以来，人民币对美元升值了2.2%，一年前一美元能兑换7.1元人民币，但现在只能兑换到6.4元人民币，这会抵消一些海外原材料的涨价。\n但人民币不能一直升值，它也有不利的一面。因为这意味着中国出口商品更贵了，会削弱中国商品的全球竞争力，所以中国人民银行已在5月警告从事外汇交易的人，不要认为人民币进一步升值是单向赌注。\n所以综合来说，控制好疫情、稳定好物价，才是当务之急。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CYB":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3019,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5226806,"commentId":"5226806","gmtCreate":1626333223442,"gmtModify":1631890224937,"authorId":4087525630006260,"author":{"id":4087525630006260,"idStr":"4087525630006260","authorId":4087525630006260,"name":"Khing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8ec9b0a8e06d222fcc8b6eec1fa30","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":147330970,"objectIdStr":"147330970","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"wow","text":"wow","html":"wow","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}