Negative Signs about S&P 500
Regained the 20 DMA (middle BB), but lost the 10 and 200 shortly before close.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ regained 200 and 20, and missed the 10 by a few cents. Seems like a reversal candle based on the moving average reclamations, but I'm not convinced.
PCE tomorrow morning could snap it in the other direction with ease. I kind of expect it could hard reverse at open if numbers come at or above Cleveland feds forecast, even with a continued move upward after 8:30 a.m. to produce a longer upper wick. This is obviously just speculation.
Such an inflation outcome would naturally lead to a 100% expectation of a 25bps June hike, up from 50% currently. As a result of prudent risk management, I'm holding minimal short volatility positioning overnight.
Have some targets right below where they would be potentially covered in after hours on debt ceiling news, but I doubt it.
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