To The Moon

The non-farm data released last weekend greatly exceeded expectations, which made the expectations of rate hike rise again in July. Despite this, Nasdaq, driven by AI speculation, still performed strongly and continued to close up for several weeks. Compared with the outstanding Nasdaq, although the S&P and Dow also rose, they failed to get out of the range obviously. For the US stock index, whether it is only a short-term glow of the Nasdaq or a new round of strong start has become the main focus of the market.

The weekly chart of Nasdaq shown in the following figure shows that since bottoming out in October last year, the index has been fluctuating upward, and the trend in the early period is basically consistent with other stock indexes. The main relatively independent market appeared in the first quarter of this year, which happened to be the time when AI topic began to be hot. It can be seen that the excellent performance of related constituent stocks is the main driving force for the rising of Nasdaq, but this is not enough to represent the prospect of the whole US stock sector, nor can it predict the situation of the whole financial system in the second half of the year.

Compared with the Nasdaq, although the more balanced S&P is also rising steadily, the performance above 4200 is obviously difficult step by step. Even after the data was released last Friday, there was a wave of pull-up, but from the weekly situation, it was still a fluctuation within the trading range. And, because of the overlap of the K-lines, technically it is more like a correction rally than a neat bull market. (This is obviously more desirable for the Nasdaq.)

From the perspective of the whole US stock market, the trend of S&P + Dow will only be more referential than that of Nasdaq. After superposition and comparison, it can be concluded that most of the targets of US stocks have maintained the previous sideways market, and a few technology stocks have a remarkable trend, but they have not yet driven the whole market to start. In the follow-up, unless topics and hot spots can be maintained all the time, relevant sectors and companies will also face the pressure of correction. As far as the overall market is concerned, everyone is more concerned about the development of economic fundamentals and possible global geopolitical topics.

Based on these correction, for index investors, the current price is obviously not a very cost-effective multi-region, and the logic of not chasing high easily is the same as when the gold price was above 2000 + before. Unless it is a trader with a very good rhythm of individual stocks, it may not be a bad thing to close as soon as possible. If the news of the second half of the year can falsify the so-called recession, there will naturally be enough room for right-hand traders to grasp. Before the fundamental changes are clear, it is very obvious that it is difficult for the US stock index to go out of the large range and reach a new high. On the other hand, once the market realizes that a small number of current hot spots are finally overwhelmed by big bad news, the downward space faced by the index can also be deeply traded.

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