Can NIO Meet 250,000 EVs Target By End 2023?

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ has released its official EV deliveries for June 2023 and Q2 2023.

For June 2023, it delivered 10,707 EVs including the new models ES6, ET5 Touring and ES8.

For Q2 2023, it delivered 23,520 EVs in total.

NIO's EV delivery 2020 - 2023

If you look carefully, June delivery is not NIO “best” output capacity.

In Feb 2023, NIO delivered 12,157 EVs, that is +13.54% more than June’s.

Still rejoicing? Guessed not.

Market however, seemed to have lap the “good” news.

Just look at NIO’s Mon, 03 Jul 2023 stock performance (see below).

More importantly,
  • Will NIO stock price continue to “recover” in July, 2023?

  • Will NIO be able to meet its revised 2023 delivery goal of 250,000 EVs? (see below).

Bloomberg news - 22 Mar 2023

  • The revision was announced by NIO, Chief Financial Officer, Mr Steven Feng on 22 Mar 2023..

  • We are very confident to achieve our sales target in 2023“, he said in his Bloomberg television interview.

  • This would be +104.10% increase from its 2022 delivery of 122,486 EVs.

  • Supposedly, NIO will achieve this (a) with new models, (b) expansion of NIO’s charging and battery-swapping network, and (c) unlocking autonomous driving technologies. 

  • However, NIO’s CEO Mr Li Bin has said recently that the 250,000 EVs target was never cast-in-stone.

  • If that is true, what then is NIO’s total deliverables for 2023? Just hope the company could be upfront instead of beating around the bush.

Assume - 250,000 EVs is NIO's 2023 Target

Since there is no formal correction announced, let’s assume NIO’s target delivery remains at 250,000 EV.

With that, I have done up a simple calculation (see below).

  • Monthly deliveries for Jan to Jun 2023 have been plugged in.

  • The 250,000 target has been parameterized.

  • YTD deliveries is 55,479 EVs.

  • This leaves NIO to deliver the outstanding 194,521 EVs in the remaining 6 months.

  • This works out to a monthly delivery of approx. 32,420 EVs.

  • Based on Q1 2023 delivery of 31,041 EVs, there is a “slim” chance that NIO might be able to meet the goal; provided demand remains “healthy”.

  • Although never stated officially, I believe NIO’s poor delivery in April & May was due to demand being “hijacked” by Tesla, Li Auto and other EV makers who have slashed their prices.

  • Could refer to Tesla’s latest delivery press release out on 01 Jul 2023 for confirmation.

  • Do you think NIO is a lost cause?

  • Do you think NIO will ever breakeven and turn profitable?

Please give a “LIKe”, “Share” & “Re-post” ok. Thanks! Rating is very important (to me)

Do consider “Follow me” to read firsthand my daily new posts? Thanks!

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerEvents

# US Stocks Opportunities

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment17

  • Top
  • Latest
  • AugustineMac-
    ·2023-07-05
    TOP

    Buy here at $10 or end of July at $16. Product super cycle and delivery turn around for NIO beginning.

    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • JC888
      Fingers crossed. Wonder when stock will return to $66 peak... Not in near future I guessed
      2023-07-05
      Reply
      Report
  • GriseldaBrown
    ·2023-07-05
    TOP

    NIO is pulling all the right string. (1) build a full series of top of the line cars =done (2) build the factories to support supply and demand =done (3) seek out real estate for charging/swapping infrastructure = in progress. Addressing range anxiety with swapping will prove to be a winner. Future is looking good. That’s my two cents.

    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • JC888
      Waiting for hopefully good news in Q2 2023 earnings. Then maybe the stock might recover. Dun think it's foray into EU is not bearing fruits. That's the dampener. Stuck sunk in costs. Back out is not an option...
      2023-07-05
      Reply
      Report
  • Yonhuat
    ·2023-07-05
    TOP
    200,000 is achievable. i forsee 220000 is demand and production keeps up. Not going to see $66 anytime soon .
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • JC888
      Boo hoo hoo, no $66.  Lets hope $50 is a reality.
      2023-07-05
      Reply
      Report
  • JC888
    ·2023-07-05
    TOP
    Hi, tks for reading my post. Pls enjoy and give a "LIKe", "Share" & "Re-post" ok. Tks!
    Rating is very important (to me).
    Will u consider "Follow me" to get first hand read of my Daily new posts? Tks!
    Reply
    Report
  • PaulaBaldwin
    ·2023-07-05
    TOP

    Any trader who thinks Tesla makes it to $750 before NIO gets to $25 is a loser.

    300% is 300% no matter what a stock trades at.

    Reply
    Report
  • ChrisColeman
    ·2023-07-05

    Li is doing better I think

    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • JC888
      Indeed.
      2023-07-05
      Reply
      Report
  • BenedictMill
    ·2023-07-05

    NIO is not competing against Tesla's six year old technology. For this stock to make you rich it needs to see 4000 or more EVs a week and that is in the bag.

    Reply
    Report
  • chanliyu
    ·2023-07-06

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

    Reply
    Report
  • AdamDavis
    ·2023-07-05

    Hope it can meet the demand. Chinese stocks need rally

    Reply
    Report
  • Aqa
    ·2023-07-05
    Liked, shared, c & support! 👍🏻
    Reply
    Report
  • brandonhow
    ·2023-07-06
    好的
    Reply
    Report
  • phongy 45
    ·2023-07-05
    awesome
    Reply
    Report
  • Tangan
    ·2023-07-05
    Thanks
    Reply
    Report