To The Moon

Gold showed signs of a bottom out in the past week, and the integer mark near 1900 provided some buying support.

On the news side, it has maintained a stable trend in the near future, and there is no new significant positive or negative news. Referring to indicators such as gold-silver ratio, the medium-term correction may not be completely over at present. After the next round of adjustment, gold will have a chance to enter a new rally.

The range of gold-silver ratio is the key to pressure reference

The price comparison between gold and silver has always been an important reference for considering the overall direction of precious metals: in the relatively weak stage of silver, the probability of gold taking the lead alone is low, and the recovery of silver is one of the overall upward signals. At present, the gold-silver ratio has been maintained within the trading range of nearly one year for a long time, with pressure on the top and support on the bottom.

If you can touch the pressure area near 90, it is expected to become an indicator of the simultaneous bottoming of gold and silver in the short and medium term.

Does the exchange rate affect the gold in the chinese market?

In addition to the ratio of gold to silver, the difference between the varieties of inner and outer plates is also one of the characteristics of gold to be adjusted. The internal market mainly refers to the high consolidation of Shanghai Gold Company in the past few weeks. Due to the impact of RMB depreciation, the anti-falling characteristics of the internal market are very obvious. However, from the historical market, the market will converge as a whole before the formation of the important bottom. In other words, the bottom will come only after the gold in the inner plate needs to be made up for by the naked eye.

According to the current situation, the correction of RMB rebound is naturally the best opportunity, because the exchange rate itself has reached a very sensitive and critical level. It may not be the best option in the short term to let the RMB price depreciate further above 7.3. Of course, if the price of gold itself falls large enough, it can also cause the internal price to fall below the platform, which will lead to the appearance of long stop loss and make-up.

It is important to pay special attention to the fact that if the RMB really breaks up (depreciates) in a trend, it means that there will be a pattern in which the internal gold is strong and the external gold is relatively weak for a long time, so arbitrage friends can look for trading opportunities. However, considering that the overall financial environment is not too bad, it is expected that the official verbal or practical crackdown will limit the chances of a short-term sharp depreciation of the RMB.

Keep patience and enter step by step

As for the price of gold bulls getting on the bus again in the medium term, the current view is basically the same as before: the first point of view is to pay attention to the main gap of 1860/67, which can stabilize and pull the platform if it is strong enough. The first layout can be at this level. If the price is weak or falling too fast, look for opportunities to increase positions at the integer level of 1800.

Since 1820-1800 changed hands actively and was also a psychological support, the bulls will not be weak. In the end, it is the rising point of 1760, but it is unlikely to probe down, so just prepare for the worst and leave a few bullets. On the premise that 1618 is not broken, it can still bring good cost performance when it rises to 2300.

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