Tech Rallies On Strong Earnings & Soften Inflation Data π
Congrats for surviving the FOMC week! Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions of QQQ again. August, the month for stocks to underperform according to seasonality is here.
Managed to take 5 trades with about 68% gain on Friday from the strong rebound from Thursday's sell offs. Stay tuned to trade a new month next week with new opportunities! π€©
Latest Economic Data:
In June 2023, personal spending experienced a growth of 0.5%, surpassing market expectations of a 0.4% expansion. This increase also marked an acceleration from the revised 0.2% rise observed in the previous month.
In June 2023, the core PCE price index, considered the Federal Reserveβs preferred gauge for measuring inflation, fell from 4.8% to 4.1%. This rate was the lowest since September 2021 and fell slightly below market expectations of 4.2%. The PCE inflation fell from 3.8% to 3% year-on-year in June 2023, the lowest reading since March 2021, in line with forecasts.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the U.S. was revised lower to 71.6 in July 2023, from a preliminary reading of 72.6.
Make or break with a double top? π€
After the burst of volatility on Thursday, stocks rebounded on Friday due to several positive factors, including reduced concerns about a shift in the Bank of Japanβs policy, strong corporate earnings and a inflation report indicating a further cooling of price pressures in June.
In midday trading on Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was 1% higher to $457, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) rose 0.6% to $354.9 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) was 1.8% higher to $383.
Almost all U.S. equity sectors were positive, except for the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) and the the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU).
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLC) outperformed, up 2.1%, followed by the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLY), up 1.7%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK), up 1.4%.
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The U.S. economy may prove more resilient in the second half of 2023 than many forecasters had expected, according to Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zenter. βOur forecast for GDP growth shows that the economy is not declining enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates,β she said.
Core inflation and job creation, however, are moving in the right direction. This, the analyst said, strengthens the case for a soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2023.
βAs a result, we continue to believe that the federal funds rate has peaked this year at 5.375% (the midpoint of the 5.25%-5.5% range announced on July 26), with the first cut coming in March 2024.β
Weekly option trades summary
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Believe q index canβt sustain move up past 372.50 resistance and 353 is triple support. 384 , forget about that itβs squeeze strategy got riddled with intraday desperation moves.
The risks to the rally, such as rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, should not be ignored.
Tech companies have been reporting strong earnings, which has helped to boost investor confidence.
Point taken is aapl moves this index their second plunge at lunch took profit out of those 371 calls. Cook buyback some shares dude
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has risen by more than 10% since the beginning of July.
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
If we put in a higher low on short term chart I'll buy.
inflation crazy ngl
Itβs 353 now since chart breakdown it was 358 so hit 372 resistance from selloff, 384 hard resistance if ever gets past above number in risk off change sentiment that pros locking in years gains now earnings will have to lift any upward big moves
It's possible that 363 is support, and if we go back up to 400 before 360, then I will have to leave. But I think it will spike a little down from support, and 360 will hit, and then the clowns will be stuck with me.
RTY long position closed with modest gains (+0.50%). Market is weak and has yet to prove it holds the current support. Have a pleasant weekend everyone.
QQQ breaking through the 50EMA line today is going to cause a big selloff. SPY on the verge of doing so as well.
Added more Sept 15 $382 calls - let's go, AI!
QQQ to $450 bye end of the year!
This is the inflection point where holding onto gains from first of year becomes really important
351 sitting there on chart like black hole in universe of Q