Markets Brace For Non-Farm Payrolls Data
50% gain taking calls on Thursday. U.S. share indexes rose but then pared gains after U.S. inflation data matched estimates, underscoring expectations the Federal Reserve could pause its monetary tightening. ⚠️ Trading tips: looking at SPY calls above 451.25 and puts below 450 on Friday.
Consolidation phase with 450 as pivot
Traders on Thursday sifted through new U.S. inflation data that showed cooling price increases. Core personal consumption expenditures, which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve for an indicator of inflation, increased 0.2% month over month in July and 4.2% year over year, matching estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones.
“We are in the camp that we will get at least one more rate hike out of the Fed,” said Alex McGrath, chief investment officer for NorthEnd Private Wealth, adding that recent increases in commodity prices will have a drag on personal consumption expenditures and consumer price index numbers from August to September.
“If you kind of get in that sticky range where inflation is not decreasing or even increasing slightly, I think that’s going spur further Fed action and whether that happens September or October, it’s anyone’s best guess,” McGrath said.
Investors are also waiting on August's employment report where non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 170,000 jobs following a jump of 187,000 jobs in the month before.
Since next Monday is a trading holiday, do expect a low volume as many will be taking a long weekend break starting Friday. Beware of time decay especially for 0dte trades. Sizing down to enjoy the weekend on the first trading day of an uncertain September.
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Modify on 2023-09-01 15:43
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Fade any "rally" today ! CPI is September 13 ! Nothing going on til then ! Tech is lagging this morning ! The "writing" is on the wall ! That is all she wrote ! Markets going down !
Looks like they are taking out the bears again today easy money for the bulls
i believe the market will fluctuate and then go up!
Let’s see what the Non-Farm Payrolls Data will tell 😄