To The Moon

The "August curse” has occurred, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , $DJIA(.DJI)$ closed down 1.77%, 2.17% and 2.36%, respectively, on a monthly basis.

September is usually the worst month for U.S. stocks in history.

According to CFRA data, since 1945, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has fallen more than half the time in September since 1945, with an average return of -0.73%.

But this September may not be as bad as history predicts.

This is according to statistics from Carson Investment Research: based on the statistics when the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has risen more than 15% in the first 7 months and fallen in August, 8 times out of 9 the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ still show a rise in the following September and a rise of 100% in the remaining months of the year.

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Do you agree with that? Are there factors that will cause U.S. stocks to rise in September? Below are my thoughts on this.

1. Public data shows that the market believes the probability that the Fed will not raise rates in September reaches 93%. Without a rate hike, liquidity will still be positive. However, we also need to pay attention to the data from CPI on September 13 and the signals from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on September 19-20.

2. The performance of the top 6 major technologies of $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ show monthly performance of -4.37%, -2.43%, 3.19%, 3.24%, 5.62% and -3.5%, respectively. After $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ announced strong earnings and $25 billion worth of share repurchases, this could boost the economic recovery and further stimulate the business potential of artificial intelligence, bringing further growth and income.

   YTD2023 as of 1st, Sep 2023

3. In September, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ will unveil their AI innovations to boost investor sentiment.

4. In addition, $Apple(AAPL)$ ‘s new product launch is scheduled for September 12 in California, and the rumor about the new iPhone could be enough to reverse the usual downward trend in September. Earlier this year, Apple's market capitalization reached $3 trillion, helping the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ to a record high in the first half of the year.

5. The Feer and greed index shows the current market sentiment neutral to greed. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is in a low position. And technically, the market is still in a bullish trend.

   

6. Tom Lee, director of research at the Fundstrat investment institute, optimistically predicts that U.S. stocks will enjoy a month-long rally, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is expected to return to this year's high.

$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2309(ESmain)$