To The Moon

The dollar index has gone through a long time correction in the past two weeks, but the final result seems to be that the bulls are stronger.

With the breakthrough of 104.4/7 key resistance, the market completely got rid of the previous two rounds of rebound failure. Although the possibility of seesaw or repetition cannot be ruled out in the short term, in the medium-term trend, Going long dollar index may be the main direction for the rest of this year.

The breakthrough of the US dollar is mainly reflected in two aspects, one is the downward trend line since the first quarter of this year, and the other is the recent weekly swing high point. Now the bulls are very close to the highest level of 105.88 in 2023.

After standing higher, we can announce the launch of the new range. At present, if there is an opportunity to step back on the support near 103.4/5, you can consider trying to get on the dollar, the stop loss can be placed below 102.8, and the upward target price can be put further.

Compared with the US dollar, non-US currencies have obvious priorities. For example, the Japanese yen fell below the low level, while the RMB also set a new low of 7.34. Other varieties are at risk of losses. For example, although the euro also fell through the recent upward channel, the main support of 1.0650 at the weekly level is still intact. Sterling is in a similar situation, with the overall decline/decline rate slightly lagging behind. This means that as long as the US dollar can maintain its trend, there is still room for European currencies to make up for their losses.

In addition, special attention should be paid to the dispute over currency. As we all know, under the general environment that major central banks have completed the tightening cycle, some central banks tend to be looser or maintain relatively loose monetary policy. Yen, as a traditional financing currency, has undoubtedly returned to its attribute, and there are different opinions on whether RMB can replace Yen. For foreign exchange transactions, one of the main functions of positioning financing currency is the safe-haven value brought by capital return in the future risk-off environment. Of course, for now, it is necessary to discuss the subsequent changes only after falling into place.

Under the relatively calm news, the "developed" rise of the US dollar suggests that smart money may be laid out in advance to cope with risks. Under the premise of limited operation means of the Federal Reserve, it is bold to guess that a certain level of black swan will be the main factor in determining the market turn. Last week, we talked about the approaching of the key suppression of crude oil, and the US stock market is close to the historical high again after the recent recovery. After the market trend of double resonance and unbreakable is determined, we may boldly choose to join the short direction.

$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2312 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main Connection 2312 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2312 (GCmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2312 (ESmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Connection 2310 (CLmain) $