To The Moon

A slight rise in key inflation data showed that the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is not complete, and the Dow Jones closed down on Wednesday (13th), the second consecutive day of losses. $3M(MMM)$ tumbled more than 5.7% and $Apple(AAPL)$ fell more than 1%.

In terms of data, the impact of soaring oil prices, US inflation accelerated again, the consumer price index (CPI) in August increased by 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding economists' expectations, rebounding for two consecutive months, of which the core CPI excluding food and energy costs increased by 4.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but the monthly increase rate was 0.3%. That was still above analysts' expectations of 0.2 percent, suggesting stubborn inflation could keep the Fed on hold for longer and possibly raise rates again this year.

In terms of politics and economics, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, the current market forecast of the Federal Reserve in September to pause the rate hike probability is 91%, but after the CPI data released, traders after the Federal Reserve meeting in November and December to raise the possibility of interest rates, pushing the US Treasury bond interest rates climbed, the US stock market fell.

"The odds of a soft landing are narrow," warns former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. "There is no sign of a '2 per cent economy' and the Fed is right to be data-dependent."

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Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$PYPL 20231117 62.5 CALL$ $PYPL 20231117 62.5 PUT$ $FFIE 20250117 5.0 PUT$

Buy TOP Vol:

$CCJ 20231020 42.0 CALL$ $X 20231117 26.0 PUT$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$FCX 20251219 33.0 PUT$ $EL 20231020 170.0 PUT$

Sell TOP Vol:

$C 20231215 47.0 CALL$ $TCOM 20231020 36.0 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.