To The Moon

Oil in wave 1 of larger uptrend

Oil is completing the first wave of its larger uptrend. It seems to be completing the final fifth wave of this first wave up and I am expecting this first wave to end just sub $100. 

The second wave retreat once this first wave is done should see prices retreat to $80 or slightly under around $75 which will then prep them up for that wave 3 move up beyond $100. The third wave will probably hit the market year end to early next year which will probably coincide with a market swoon. As of now, market is still comfortable with oil prices and inflation but as these prices pick up and pressure the markets, they might realise that a recession might eventually hit with the Feds not able to go off the brakes.

So that I believe is the macro picture. In the near term, oil prices might retreat which will take pressure off the equity markets and lull them into ignoring inflation which will see equities launch into a year end rally once this ongoing dip (which is coinciding with oil's surge) is done. But once the realities of sticky inflation and a 'necessary recession' to bring that down sinks in, that will bring the equity markets to its knee and set up a fantastic buying opportunity. 

Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.

Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!

Stay safe! 😊

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