To The Moon

This week's focus is on the Fed's decision on interest rates. The interest rate on the US 10-year Treasury bond is at 4.347%. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision at 2 o 'clock on Thursday, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's monetary policy resolution press conference at 2:30. Interest rates are expected to stay on hold at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, although one more hike this year is likely given last week's economic data showing accelerating inflation and a strong labor market.

Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said last week's inflation report supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping rates unchanged this week. As for the future policy path, concerns about inflation, the labor market, and the delayed and cumulative effects of previous monetary tightening will be taken into account and will help determine whether the Fed has finished raising rates or needs to raise them further. The FOMC is now expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of the year.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 99 percent chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week.

A better-than-expected rally in U.S. stocks this year has prompted several Wall Street strategists to face up to their erroneous calls and raise their year-end price targets for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.

Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equity strategy at Societe Generale, last week raised his year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,750 from 4,300, up 25 percent from his original 3,800.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, who once predicted a U.S. stock crash in 2022, admitted in July that he had been bearish on stocks for too long. Still, he expects stocks to fall more than 10% by the end of the year.

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Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$MSFT 20240621 430.0 CALL$ $BYD 20241115 65.0 PUT$

Buy TOP Vol:

$BMBL 20231117 12.5 PUT$ $DKNG 20231027 26.0 PUT$

Other tech stocks:

$PINS 20230922 25.5 PUT$ $PINS 20231006 28.0 CALL$ $U 20230922 37.0 CALL$ $ADBE 20231020 575.0 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$MSFT 20231006 330.0 CALL$ $AAPL 20230922 187.5 PUT$

Sell TOP Vol:：

$BMBL 20231117 12.5 PUT$ $F 20230929 12.0 PUT$

Other tech stocks:

$NVDA 20230929 442.5 CALL$ $AMZN 20260116 130.0 PUT$ $AVGO 20240621 950.0 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.