To The Moon

The Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 4.36 percent to its highest level since 2007, and investors betting on a 99 percent chance the Fed will skip a rate hike in September and leave rates unchanged, according to CME FedWatch.

Most of investors' attention will be focused on Chair Bauer's views on the November meeting, any new signs of future Fed moves, updated economic forecasts, and interest rate bitmaps.

While the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," wrote that a soft landing for the U.S. economy may be difficult to achieve, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the U.S. economy remains on track to achieve a soft landing. Yellen said the recent rise in oil prices was unwelcome, but that eventually prices would stabilize.

The Fed is split between hawks and doves who want to keep rates steady through the end of the year and hawks who want them to rise above 5.6%, or at least 25 basis points.

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ fell 11.86% after the company issued $1bn in convertible bonds yesterday. Option transaction shows $NIO 20240119 7.5 PUT$ A large order volume of 10,000 lots.

Another option portfolio with a total volume of 16,000 lots shows that some institutions believe that NIO's stock price will be in the range of 8 to 5:

buy $NIO 20240216 8.0 PUT$

sell $NIO 20250117 5.0 PUT$

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Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$PANW 20250117 280.0 CALL$ $PRU 20250117 90.0 PUT$

Buy TOP Vol:

$DIS 20230922 83.0 PUT$ $UEC 20240119 4.0 PUT$

Other tech stocks:

$AMZN 20230922 139.0 CALL$ $LI 20231215 40.0 CALL$ $MSFT 20230929 360.0 PUT$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$AAPL 20230922 187.5 PUT$ $LI 20240315 40.0 CALL$

Sell TOP Vol:：

$NU 20231020 6.5 PUT$ $X 20231215 26.0 PUT$

Other tech stocks:

$IBM 20231215 155.0 CALL$ $BABA 20241220 70.0 PUT$ $MSFT 20230929 355.0 PUT$

$U.S. Steel(X)$ "Us Steel is having a pretty strong auction," said one person familiar with the matter. There does seem to be a lot of interest in the company." Last month, U.S. Steel rejected a $7.3 billion cash-and-stock offer from Cleveland-Cliffs, amid reports that ArcelorMittal was considering a bid of $38 to $39 per share for U.S. Steel.

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.