To The Moon

Bears firmly in control at the moment

The markets make a decisive move yesterday after the bulls and bears wrangled it out at the pivot point of 4430 on the broad market index. Initially, the bulls seem to be wresting short term control from the bears but the bears overwhelmed them once the FoMc made their stance clear that they are not pulling back on rates. That punctured the bulls' energy and zest and they subsequently surrendered 4430 to the bears. 4430 had been a critical support zone from which the bulls successfully took back just the prior day after the bears' initial attempts to push decisively past it. 

Now it seems that 4430 has been overwhelmed and conquered by the bears and 4400 looms as the next point of resistance for the bulls. Give that up and I am expecting my target of 4250 to be a reality. If the bulls successfully defend 4400 and manage to turn the market up in five waves, there might just be a glimmer of hope that the bottom might be in at 4400. But that will be a tall order for the bulls it seems at the moment. 

I believe the bears will push the broad market towards 4250 and test the levels there. That I believe is where the next critical pivot is. Break that decisively and there is a strong possibility the top is in and we are heading lower towards 4110 and then the 3000 levels. Rebound off 4250 decisively and trend is still up in my opionion for another final swing up towards 4800 before the recessionary collapse. 

Those who have been following my commentaries would know I have been hedged since the 4500 levels and remain hedged pending price actions. My stance is cautious and protecting capital is the theme going forward. I believe the time to buy and hold is not now. That approach will most probably be next year after the 'soft landing' mainstream market's opinion has been squashed finally and the equity markets devalue drastically to align with the bond market. The equity market has always had a habit of being in denial and the last to throw in the towel. And I believe they are at it again. 

Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.

Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!

Stay safe! 😊

$DJIA(.DJI)$ 

$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ 

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ 

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ 

$Microsoft(MSFT)$