To The Moon

September is only 2 days away, I think it is worth to look at how the historical data could tell us about the performance and what October would hold for us.

I believe at the beginning of September, some of us would believe that September is generally a month where we could see more downside.

Analyze Win Rate For Period of 1990 to 2022

If we look at the consolidated win rate from period of 1990 to 2022, we can see that September have the lowest win rate among the others.

But based on the number of Green and Red days for S&P 500, September does not seem to have the highest number of red days. May 2023 have a total of 14 days out of 22 trading days.

September so far we have only 10 with 2 more trading days to go (including 28 Sep Today).

Could we be looking at “Golden October”?

S&P 500 Average Monthly Total Return For Period of 1990 to 2022

If we look at the historical price pattern, stocks will likely to rally ahead in the fourth quarter, average returns for October, November and December are 1.45%, 1.75% and 1.13% respectively.

Based on data from the last three decades, the average return for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in September has been -0.91%, which is the worst among the other months.

In September we saw that S&P 500 have wiped out its gain of over 5% for 2023.

Summary

From what historical data can tell us, but these are best for reference. There are always other factors which could direct or indirectly impact how the market would perform.

Here are some factors which could negatively impact the market in October:

United Auto Worker (UAW) strike

This might be resolved for now and some agreement have been discussed, but ultimately it will come down to whether the companies agree to these terms

Possible Fed Government Shutdown

The deadline for Fed is 01 October 2023, would we be seeing a possible vote to avert this shutdown over the last weekend of September? This might spill over to October if shutdown really goes ahead.

Interest Payments On Student Loans Resuming

While interest payments on student loans will resume and benefit some of the financial stocks. Potential default is still possible.

Surge in energy prices recently might further give unforeseen inflation, if that happen, concerns of further rates hikes by Fed will be possible too.

I would think it might be good to know how S&P 500 have performed in October in the past or how fourth quarter market performance might be like.

I would think we should continue to stick to our trading plan and exercise caution and watch the market movement.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think October and fourth quarter of 2023 would provide golden opportunity for us?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.