To The Moon

Mr Musk always have an opinion on just about anything.

He freely airs his view (on his money losing app “X”) even when nobody seeks it.

That is how egotistical & obnoxious he has evolved.

Wondering what he has to say about below post?

For sure, he would:

• Feigned ignorance.

• Come up with another fancy excuse about Tesla’s failed Full Self Driving (FSD) function.

• Worse still, lie through his teeth, when all else failed.

What Is The News Article About?

• $Mercedes Benz Group AG(DDAIF)$ invited the author to drive its EQS’s Drive Pilot system, in Santa Monica.

• This is the first actual “hands free” Level 3 autonomous drive (AD) system certified to operate in the US.

• AD systems are ranked from level 0 to level 5, describing how much capability the system has.

• In general, levels 0 to level 2 are primarily human-driven.

• While level 3 to level 5, are primarily autonomously driven.

• Most electric vehicles on sale today have some sort of driver assistance system, that can be categorized as level 2.

• Every other system in the US caps out at level 2, which means that drivers still have ultimate liability for anything that happens while they are behind the wheel.

• Yes, it includes $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ also, contrary to what Mr Musk has said about Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) capabilities or there lack of.

• Exception of course is driverless taxis like Waymo/Cruise, that have been geofenced as level 4 systems.

• *Note: $General Motors(GM)$ markets “Super Cruise” a hands-free system is still a level 2 nonetheless. Meaning, drivers must keep their eyes on the road.

• They are ultimately responsible for the vehicle while behind the wheel.

• Mercedes Drive Pilot is the first level 3 system – the first validated to work in the US.

• Mercedes described the gulf between level 2 & level 3 as a “moonshot,” a step change in how people can use their vehicles.

• Importantly, this is the first system in US that has been validated to take full control of the vehicle — under certain circumstances — freeing driver to perform other tasks.

• The system has been rolled out in Germany for about one year.

• To date, Mercedes claims it has tallied zero accidents when enabled, so far, but is only just coming to US.

• To achieve Level 3 classification, the Benz uses an array of sensors and redundancies to ensure that it has a good view of everything around it.

• To maintain rainy day’s quality vision, it uses 3 types of rain sensors (versus none in other EVs).

• It takes advantage of [a] vision, [b] radar, [c] lidar, [d] GPS, [e] ultrasonic, and [f] acoustic recognition of its environment.

• Unfortunately, level 3 is still conditional automation.

• This means it only works within Mercedes’ “Operational Design Domain.”

• In plain English, it means [a] heavy traffic conditions under 40 mph, [b] with a lead car available, [c] good weather, [d] good road conditions, and [e] in well-mapped areas.

• A fallback driver must be available to take over control when the EV says so.

Test Simulation:

• Santa Monica rush hour.

• Freeway location is where the 10 meets the 405.

• No choreographed demonstration on a test track.

• Author was in a real test, along with a bunch of testers, performing the same daily task on the freeway.

• Step #1 - watch a 7 minute video about Drive Pilot’s operation and limitations.

• Step #2 - familiarize with the augmented reality display, that’s more extensive than existing headsup display (HUD) in the market.

• The HUD shows a lot of info that Drive Pilot bases its decisions on.

• Compared to Tesla, Mercedes’s in-car visualization is quite detailed, sturdy and far superior — giving a tester a lot of confidence in the system.

• Step #3 - upon getting stuck in traffic jam, bumper to bumper, Mercedes EQS suggested auto-driving for author to select & activate.

• Step #4 - upon self-driving activation, a turquoise lighting surrounds the EV informing others in the jam.

• Step #5 - author is not driving and could relax (but not sleep). Alternatively, author could [a] surf the internet, [b] listen to music, [c] watch Youtube or [d] play video games.

• Step #6 - fallback to manual driving was seamless when author purposely broke protocol eg. looking into the backseat, having the steering wheel or any other object in the way.

• Author took to Mercedes level 3 autonomous driving like a duck to water.

• The stability offered far exceeds that of Tesla.

• No retrofitting of existing Mercedes with auto drive feature.

• Will need to get a level 3-capable car on purchase.

• Drive Pilot will only work in areas with a high-resolution map available.

• These maps are precise down to an inch or two, and even account for continental drift.

• Using the system requires a subscription at $2,500 for the first year versus Tesla’s level 2 FSD ranging between $1,188 to $2,388, depending on owner chose the basic or advanced model.

• The only “disadvantage” for Mercedes Drive Pilot is it does not change lanes at level 3 drive mode.

• Lane switching is available at stepped down - DISTRONIC level 2 system. This means driver must be steering wheel ready.

My Viewpoints:

• For Level 3 auto-drive, there are so many mechanics behind its success; let alone for Level 2 Tesla.

• Must not forget, Mr Musk does not believe in Lidar monitors and Tesla does not come with it.

• How does that make Tesla’s FSD “better” or driver feels safer is something Tesla EV owner must take into consideration.

• There have been numerous Tesla’s FSD accidents (resulting in death) over the years.

• Does a Tesla EV owner really want to put his/her life on the line for a level 2 - touted autonomous driving capability?

• After Mr Musk overcame the production volume issue, Tesla stock price soared.

• However, the real spike came when he painted a vision of Tesla EVs being able to auto-drive by itself back in 2013.

• This was inline with Wall Street quirk to price-in a company’s future potential into its stock price,

• In 2016, Mr Musk announced that all Tesla EVs will be equipped with FSD hardware.

• Fast forward 10 years later and with 285,000 paid up customers and a still work-in-progress Full Self Driving app that is not getting expoentially “better” - what say you?

• In 1- or 2-years’ time with Chinese EVs achieving the Level 3 categorization when it hits the US shore, where will that leave Tesla?

• I wonder what will Ms Cathie Wood of $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ have to say about that? She’s a known fangirl of Tesla and has talked a lot about autonomous driving in the past.

• Do you think the Chinese EVs will be able to achieve Level 3 autonomous driving in 1 to 2 years time?

• Do you think Tesla’s FSD will ever be upgraded to Level 3 category given the probe into its software as recently as August 2023 (see below).

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