To The Moon

In the past two weeks, the chaotic fighting mode among major assets in the financial market has not subsided.

On the contrary, with the change of news, the traditional mode of risky assets and safe-haven assets dancing together has intensified. Among them, Nvidia, which was affected by Sino-US chip relations, was accidentally shot. The technical risk of breaking the position also brought greater downward pressure to the US stock index.

In the middle of last week, the news about restricting the sale of high-end graphics cards came out, which not only made the domestic graphics card scalpers who had been silent for many years eager to move, but also made NVIDIA, a hot US AI concept stock in the first half of the year, fall continuously. Although the follow-up "rumor-dispelling" retail is not restricted, the performance of individual stocks is still declining obviously.

The current technical trend looks like a very standard head-shoulder top shape, of course, the shape itself can be arranged or broken structure. If the key level near 410/403 here is effectively broken down, the theoretical downward target will point to the 330 line, and basically make up the huge gap below.

As we all know, this year's bull market in the US stock index largely depends on the market of related sectors.，and when the leading stocks upward become leading stocks downward, we can foresee the lethality of the index. And more crucially, after the bad news proved to be just hearsay, the market still did not rebound with knee-jerk reflex, but continued to fall, showing that the market itself has been more inclined to go down. When the topic of Palestine and Israel first came out, the pressure on US stocks was not so great.

On the US index itself, the situation is not optimistic. Even on the weekly chart of the relatively neutral S&P index, after piercing the weekly low of 4350, it seems that it will face the risk of refreshing the low of 4235 this week. If this is the case, the downward trend since the end of July will take shape: both the low and high points of the weekly line are constantly going down.

While risky assets perform poorly, the 10-year US bond yield continues to rise, which will have an impact on assets in the medium and long term. On the one hand, the upward trend of financing cost/market interest rate highlights the market's concern about the Fed's rate hike in the future; On the other hand, under the environment that safe-haven funds do not favor US debt (price), the trend of major assets falters. If the risk-off model is strengthened in the future, there may be more room for the stock index to fall.

With the coming of the end of the year, all kinds of news and changes in the current market are relatively quicker. On the whole, the macro environment has not shown the so-called signs of recovery in the past few months. Even though recession fears are far away, the weakness at the technical level makes us more cautious. Keep enough bullets and look for bargains when the time and price are right, which is far better than entering the game now.

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