Nvidia & others cont'd to fall or rise? Read & decide.
On Fri, 7 Oct 2022 the US government imposed sweeping new curbs designed to curtail China’s access to technology critical to the manufacturing and operations of its military power. (see below)
The action applies new export controls to restrict:
China’s access to advanced computing chips.
Its ability to develop and maintain super computers & manufacture semiconductors.
The move cuts at critical technological components for multiple economic sectors, but most acutely targets the manufacturing of advanced weapons systems.
For a moment, calm was “restored” as chip makers studied the rules governing the ban and found a way to work around it.
This was achieved by retaining the processing power but reduced the processing / comms speed.
All that changed when Huawei launched its latest mobile phone (Mate 60 & Mate 60 Pro) with 5G capabilities on 26 Sep 2023. (see below).
“The peace was abruptly disrupted”.
The US government was blindsided by the launch.
They scrambled to find out how, despite all the battering, Huawei managed to spring a surprise on them.
This wake up call reminds the US government not to underestimate China at the technology front.
On the eve of the restrictions’ anniversary , the US government further tighten its grip on $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and other chip makers who export to China.
Namely:
The tightening of the restrictions will definitely impact these semiconductor industry players.
For a start, ASML will be hard hit — easily 46%? (see below).
This time round the Biden administration refined existing restrictions, aimed at keeping advanced chips and manufacturing gear out of China.
They closed the loopholes that might help its geopolitical rival gain cutting edge technologies and vows to minimally review the rules annually.
The enhancements will strengthen controls on selling [a] graphics chips for artificial intelligence applications and [b] advanced chipmaking equipment to Chinese firms.
Originally, it was supposed to come into effect 30 days (one month) later.
On Wed, 25 Oct 2023 the US government decided to spring a surprise of its own by speeding up the new AI chip export ban. (see above).
Shit happens when one does not own the intellectual property, developed, refined and built upon over time.
In the past 5 trading days, Nvidia’s performance have been rather choppy, in tandem with US market extreme fluctuations. (see above)
On Fri, 20 Oct 2023 it ended the week at $410.91 — its “lowest” based on 5-rolling trading days.
On Tue, 25 Oct 2023 it roar back to life with a +2.66% gain; no doubt aided by positive sentiments permeating US market overall.
Upon the latest news released, Nvidia immediately socialized with the press.
Informing that:
It does not anticipate a near-term financial impact from the move.
Given the strength of demand for its products worldwide, the Company does not anticipate that the accelerated timing of the licensing requirements will have a near-term meaningful impact on its financial results.
Honestly if we examine Nvidia’s past month price movement, you will be able to tell that it has been trending downwards steadily. (see above)
And it was at its lowest on Thu, 26 Oct 2023 at $403.26 per share.
As for the other 2 chipmakers who export to China,
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), did not comment to Reuter’s query.
Intel, which started selling its Gaudi 2 chips in China in July 2023, reported that it is "reviewing the regulations and assessing the potential impact."
My Viewpoints:
Noticed how Nvidia tries it best to deflect attention by insisting that there will be no financial impact in the near term.
FYI, of the > $10 Billions Nvidia generated in data center sales in Q2 2023, 20% to 25% of the revenue came from sales in China.
Of course, Nvidia is “worried” for the medium to longer term.
It is already attempting to pivot to other areas where chips are required. (see below)
I am certain that there will be more of such activities down the road for Nvidia and other chip makers as well — as the ability to conduct businesses in China continues to be tighten under artificial conditions.
Looking at Nvidia’s past 6 months performances (see above), it still has a gain of +2.66%.
At its lowest on Tue, 25 Apr 2023 it stock price was $262.41 per share.
It has a support / resistance price of just above $400 per share?
Between now and 21 Nov 2023 (tentative Q3 2023 earnings report day), its fate is linked inexplicably to the US market.
Parting question, how will Nvidia & US market behave for next 4 weeks?
Do you think there is still room for Nvidia to fall?
Do you think other chip makers like ASML, AMD and Intel will fall as well, given the additional curb have been brought forward?
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NVDA will rock all a yawls’ world on its upcoming earnings report! It’s gonna be epic! — That’s what we learned from Intel in yesterday’s AH earnings and CC!!!
Nvidia is expected to sell $37 billion this year and $57 billion next year worth of GPUs targeting AI. That’s a whopping $94 billion by the end of 2024.
In very long term semiconductor is still worth buying.
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Great article to share.
Wherever INTC gets a Fab up and running,they instantly become the preferred supplier of chips that are used in critical industries.AI can be used as a weapon if a nation is not careful.
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AMD expects to sell $500 million this year and $2 billion plus next year (again GPUs for AI).
I say this is slow compared to NVDA that jump 4x in 3 months but I missed that monster but I'm not going to miss this more moderate monster.
They say nothing moves faster then the speed of light ... except an Nvidia nose dive.
INTC is able to execute its plans internationally,it becomes the preferred supplier of chips for critical sensitive industries.
Time to buy and hold intc.. 100 returns from this share price with in 2 years
NASDAQ +120 NVDA is now RED Down 23% since earnings