To The Moon

In the past week, the news was relatively calm, and most assets also showed a revised market trend. Among them, the US Dollar Index fell back after failing to hit the high level for the second time.At present, the probability of walking out of the second leg is increasing.

In the process, risky assets are expected to maintain a good momentum, but the US dollar will eventually find the bottom and show strength again.

The sharp decline of US dollar in the Candlestick Chart is accompanied by the latest non-farm data, and the superposition of technical and news makes the short-term break more effective.

On the weekly chart, it is obvious that the Concealing Swallow structure had come into being .The theoretical goal of double-top shape points at least below 104. At the current price and time span,The dollar is expected to fall more and rise less throughout November. As for the question that rate hike is not rate hike in the United States, it has already been concluded before: interest rates have already approached or reached the top. Therefore, it will not be a factor that influence the dollar for a long time.

In short-term trading, if the US dollar still has a certain good rebound height, it will be ideal to sell on rallies. However, after Fibonacci's 0.382-0.5 callback range is touched, it is necessary to pay attention to the possible bottom construction.

From a long-term perspective, we still prefer that major central banks such as the European Central Bank should lead the Federal Reserve in the pace and rhythm of returning to easing. Advantages from spreads/spreads will make it difficult for the US dollar to fall sharply. Possible black swans and other safe-haven demand will also boost the performance of the US dollar from time to time.

During the downward trend of the US dollar, it is not surprising that the corresponding negatively correlated assets such as non-US currencies and stock indexes rebounded.

Relatively speaking, the performance of gold and silver in the past week is entangled. Gold futures seem to be weak after breaking through the $2,000 mark. After all, the short-term increase has been huge. Considering that the closing in October was finally swallowed by bulls, from the history of the monthly line, the risk of gold callback in the next 1-2 months is quite obvious.

However, the ratio of gold and silver has not effectively broken through the one-year triangular finishing category, so if you have not got on the bus before，we suggest to wait and see,it is obviously impossible to chase high cost performance. Silver is still a middle position, which is very difficult to start with. In the foreseeable period of time, the priority of gold will still be far ahead of silver.

Finally, briefly say that commodities represent oil and copper, both of which have remained under pressure in the near future, but they are also very close to the supporting area. Under the short-term prospect of bearish US dollar, commodities will also rebound to a certain extent. Among them, the main attraction of crude oil is the support strength below 78, while American copper is located at 3.3 line. The empty side can consider locking in profits, and bulls also have short-term opportunities.

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