To The Moon

Gold fell to correction in November after rising continuously, but silver, which had been tepid before, walked out of the bullish positive trend last week. The downward trend line resistance since the first quarter of this year is currently suppressing the attack of silver bulls. If the suppression can be successfully broken through, precious metals are expected to make greater progress, and gold is even expected to reach a new high at the end of this year

From the weekly chart of silver, we can see that the current silver price as a whole is still within a certain range of fluctuation in the past three years, and does not have the ability to soar.

Nevertheless, the more standard flag-shaped finishing combined with the previous rebound momentum still gives people a feeling of gaining momentum. 24.5 As the previous break position, it just synchronizes with the trend line pressure level. It is expected that bulls need to stand firm at the weekly level to ensure the effectiveness of the breakthrough. According to pullback/retracement, 21.9 is the starting point of a one-week reversal. After returning to this price level, the market will turn neutral or weak.

Another observation angle comes from the ratio of gold to silver. It is not difficult to find that after more than one year's triangular arrangement, there is less and less space left for many vacancies, and the winner and loser will soon be decided. Different from the previous way of judgment, once the direction is finally chosen, we expect such a result:Gold and silver fell below the triangle = silver is strong enough to drive precious metals to rise further and rapidly; Gold-silver ratio falls below triangle = gold keeps its previous relatively strong situation, but it may rise and fall back before going up. On the whole, the difference lies only in the speed and intensity of the next rising trend, but it will not affect the medium and long-term bullish situation.

Returning to silver itself again, it has been said before that the current price still fluctuates near the middle track in the long-term fluctuation range,Therefore, the major premise of by going up one flight of stairs is to get rid of the range-stand at the integer level of $30 (before that, there is a month-long and short change turning point at 26.1/26.4). Judging from the past history and the dual attributes of silver itself, the replenishment of silver price is more driven by capital and occurs at the end of the trend.

Based on the above dimensions, we guess that the possible market trajectory in the next 1-3 months will be:Silver is relatively strong in the short term, driving the ratio of gold to silver to break through the lower support ；Then silver weakened/gold strengthened, the ratio of gold to silver rose again and finally chose to break through upwards.

The bull market of precious metals is still driven by gold, while silver is passively rising, and even silver will still be suppressed below 30 for a long time.Trading friends who have not caught up with the previous low gold level can consider taking advantage of the recent good performance of silver to find the strategy.

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