The markets are looking really stretched while hitting strong resistance levels. Unless they can really catch a bid and propel upwards on strong buying pressure (I really don't know where it will come from looking at the macro and lack of catalysts), they look about to level out and dive.
I am really surprised the markets have held on this long actually. And this makes me more cautious. The Vix is really low as well at levels last seen in Jan 2020. We all know what happened shortly after. The broad market index itself is in a three wave pattern up symbolic of corrections (Looking like a wave 2) and is diverging from the composite index. 4570 is strong resistance with multiple confluence on multiple techniques. We are trending firmly upwards into a critical Gann time factor. I can go on but the risks are too great in my opinion to chase gains in the situation.
Unless 4605 is cleared emphatically soon, I am expecting 4450 to be tested on an imminent pullback likely this week.
The techs are the only bright spots but even then not everybody is participating. Nvidia has been trending down in the past week but AMD is looking resilient. My take is probably investors rotating out of Nvidia into AMD looking at how AMD has been lagging Nvidia all this while.
I will be watching the nature of the next pullback closely to determine risk positioning. In the meantime, hedges have been placed last week to protect capital as well as cash raised. I am expecting some volatility and some fear appearing in the market and as such protecting my cash position by holding it in gold rather than USD. The gold chart looks to be gearing up for a power move up which makes me cautious wondering what the market is picking up that warrants a flight to the traditional safe haven. As such, I have moved my USD cash positions into the Ounz which is my preferred gold ETF considering they hold actual physical gold in London vaults rather than use primarily derivatives to follow gold price. At least they have tangible assets which gives me more security. Capital protection is key in this environment.
Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.
Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!
Stay safe! 😊
$Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ Bearish
Modify on 2023-11-27 18:05
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It seems that you have a very deep understanding of the market.
Is it too early to invest in tech stocks?
Investing in AMD is indeed a good choice
Hopefully the index will bring us good news in the future
A very low Vix index is actually a good thing, right?
PCE tomorrow? Might be something