To The Moon

The "Online game management Measures" suddenly introduced today suppressed the rising sentiment of Chinese stocks, Tencent Hong Kong shares dived 12%, NetEase Hong Kong shares dived 24%.

There are two reasons for the flight of funds: first, the daily activities of mobile games and gambling payment mechanisms have been comprehensively suppressed, and the second is that the fear of force majeure has affected the investment confidence of other industries.

These two aspects have brought investment opportunities, the former is to avoid which companies at this stage, the latter is to take the opportunity to buy bottom, such as China concept stock e-commerce. There is a good opportunity to sell the put option on BABA PDD JD at the open.

sell $BABA 20240119 70.0 PUT$

sell $JD 20240119 26.0 PUT$

sell $PDD 20240119 140.0 PUT$

I don't see any problem selling ATM options today for the three e-commerce players. The premarket drop was pure panic, and consumption had no impact at all. Although there are rumors that the next step is to regulate live with goods, the short-term market pressure is too large and the probability of immediate action is not high.

Game companies in addition to Tencent can copy the bottom, other companies are not recommended to copy the bottom in the short term, including NetEase and Bilibili.

This user management is mainly for gambling paid card games and games with virtual goods off-site cash transactions, the former represents the game is Bilibili "FGO", while the latter represents NetEase's off-site trading platform Zangbao Pavilion. Although NetEase listed this year's fist class of new games "Against the cold" and "Egg Party" to avoid the hidden treasure Pavilion, but it is difficult to accurately value this business, so to observe for a period of time.

And Bilibili game agent is mainly draw card mobile games, can be said to be targeted by the policy. Unfortunately, two days ago, there were large orders to sell the ATM put option, accurate tread.

Tencent sell PUT option exercise price conservative I give to 180 $TCH.HK 20240228 180.00 PUT$ . Tencent's main draw card mobile games account for a small proportion, but the agency and investment may not be in a minority. Of course, it is also recommended to copy the bottom because compared with NetEase, the revenue of card games will not have a major impact on the valuation.

In fact, kweb can also sell put, but I bought a call before, so I will not do this position consideration.

The week as a whole is a good sell call, as said on Monday. Oracle's unexpected strength has me putting a stop on my sell call, adding a sell put, and doing the rest as usual.