To The Moon

BTC going places?

Bitcoin also known as the forefather of crypto or some may prefer the term digital gold. Whatever what you prefer to call it or whether you are a proponent or opponent of it, Bitcoin looks like it is here to stay. So if it is going to be relevant, where is it heading?

Truth be told, cryptocurrency is still early stage tech. And it is hard to assign fundamentals to such assets as they are still finding a footing and fundamental metrics applied to developed assets such as stocks might not work well with them. Hence, to make it work well and assimilate it into a robust and diversified portfolio, we need to lead with technicals. And for me personally, I apply strict rules with crypto as I regard it as a portfolio diversifier rather than core assets. 10% of total portfolio is my limit when it comes to crypto related assets. 

And I try to understand the concept behind the cryptocurrency after classifying them into the categories namely the matured coins such as Bitcoin and Ether and then the stablecoins and the riskier altcoins. What I do not understand falls under speculative and I draw a line when it comes to that. So that is my viewpoint with regards to cryptocurrency and why my choices at the moment are Bitcoin, Ether and the altcoin of choice being Chainlink. USDC is my stablecoin choice being pegged to the US dollar and backed by them and also since I use coinbase, its more convenient as it allows me to bring down transaction related expenses.

So having said all that, where do I see Bitcoin heading? I believe Bitcoin is in a diagonal pattern starting off their low in 2018 with the classical three waves up and downs seen clearly on the weekly chart. I also have alternative counts with the classical Elliot waves five up and three downs. However, I believe the diagonal is the one more closely aligned with how Bitcoin is moving especially with the deep retrace seen in the last pullback. 

With regards to short term direction, I believe BTC is heading into heavy resistance at the 5000-58000 level. Coupled with Gann analysis, there are four time clusters converging together now and depending on the trend into it, it usually marks 75% chance of reversals. There is another huge cluster in June/July. 

So based on my projections, BTC is trending up into the current cluster which gives it a 75% chance of a pullback at the resistance levels which also coincide with the pattern I am following. That gives us a top at the 50000 levels and a pullback towards 30000 into the middle part of the year before that rip roaring rally in the later part on the back of the Gann time cluster in June/July. 

Do take note these are not iron clad and are just projections based on Elliot wave and Gann analysis. As usual price leads and when price breaks certain levels we have to respect that and pivot accordingly. So where is my pivot point?

If 58000 breaks in a vertical move, that tells me the market wants to go higher and I will switch count towards a third wave which will see a projected completion of that third wave at 88000 in the near future. So 58000 will constitute a breakout move and a breakout buy.

However, I am leaning towards a 75% probability of the market respecting 50000 and pulling back from there as a minor B wave of the ongoing three wave fifth wave up of the diagonal. This projection will see accumulation levels at the 35000-38000 levels where 30500 levels must hold as critical support to keep the bullish pattern intact.

Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.

Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!

Stay safe! 😊

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$