To The Moon

Gold experienced a good year in 2023. Under the trend of first suppressing and then rising, gold finally set a new record high.

However, the short-term short-selling market did not bring about sustained buying, but triggered obvious profit-taking. Although the trend in the beginning of the year is average, from the medium and long-term structure, it is more likely that gold will continue to slow down to a new high in 2024.

From the seasonal situation, the continuity of gold after the new high is still ideal, and there is no historical case of false breakthrough. From the correction situation, the time span is usually in one quarter, not more than two consecutive quarters, otherwise the periodic trend has changed.

From the absolute pullback percentage, the more common ratio is 10-15%, generally not more than 20%, which also meets the requirements of the so-called bull-bear conversion. If from the highest point, the first round of callback to 1987 has actually met the space requirements, so although it is still in consolidation, it should only digest the selling pressure through time.

In the revised structure, there are two possibilities at present. One is the platform-type repair. The gold price once again drops to a low level before 1987, stabilizes and then rises again; The other is a zigzag repair, and the gold price may be extended and adjusted to around 1930 before finding the final low point, and then marching to the high level.

Individuals are relatively more inclined to the latter, because this can better protect the slow bull market. If the time is too short and the space is not enough, the subsequent repetition will consume more patience.

Compared with the strength of gold, silver has been slow to enter the state. A long time ago, we discussed the possibility and demand of silver replenishment, but from the situation in recent years, the situation that gold is strong and silver is weak has been strengthened.

Based on the fact that this model has not ended quickly, we believe that even if silver has the idea of a latecomer, a high probability will appear in the end of gold market. From a simple price point of view, there are too many weekly/monthly pressures in the range of 26-30, and there have been many cases of changing hands in long and short positions.

It seems that it needs great benefits or funds to drive an effective breakthrough. As long as the price of silver stays below $30, silver will not have much chance to shine. We can continue to choose the hedging strategy of multi-gold and empty silver at an appropriate price.

In the strategy of internal and external market, there is no good opportunity for the current price, but it is not ruled out that the exchange rate will retest the high and low points in the second half of the year. In that case, there is still the possibility of trading. Around the 7-integer mark, within the range of 7.3-6.8, look for possibilities near the highest point and the lowest point.

On the whole, we are still full of confidence in this year's gold, because the minimum requirement of target price 2200-2300 has not yet been reached, and there is still about 10% room. However, if there is no significant low this year, better timing and strategy are needed in trading, instead of buying and waiting for the high. The arrival of volatility will also mean that speculative traders will have more short-term and medium-term game possibilities, and investors suggest to be patient and not watch the market wash out too much.

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