To The Moon

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The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was down 0.1% for our First Five Day (FFD) early warning system is negative. Since 1950, the previous 26 down FFD were followed by 14 up years and 12 down with an average gain in all years of just 0.3%. The last negative FFD was in 2022 when $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 1.9%. In 2022, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ went on to decline 5.3% in January and thus our January Barometer (JB) was negative. For 2022, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was down 19.4%.

2023, the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) was negative, and the FFD was negative. At this juncture there are two possible outcomes remaining for our January Indicator Trifecta. Our JB can either be positive or negative. The historical results of both are visible in the following tables.

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A positive JB would certainly boost prospects for full-year 2024 even after down FFD and negative SCR.

Following the previous three occurrences when the SCR and FFD were negative and the January Barometer was positive, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ advanced three times over the remaining eleven months and for the full year with average gains of 15.1% and 19.9% respectively.

The December Low Indicator (2024 STA, page 36) should also be watched with the line in the sand at the Dow’s December Closing Low of 36054.43 on 12/6/2023.

Source: https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/739066475502010368/first-five-days-negative-trifecta-0-for-2