Oil price forecast for 2024
If you want to find a variety that is the most difficult to predict the general trend and direction this year, then crude oil must be on the list. Unlike most assets we looked forward to before, oil prices have been fluctuating within a relatively standard box since the end of 2022. Even if there are unexpected factors of production reduction/restriction and geopolitical conflict,However, the Biden administration is still ideal to "control" the price in the range of roughly 70-100 dollars. However, with the coming of the general election, the play and influence of the invisible hand of the United States may change.
Selling crude oil reserves above $100 and buying crude oil reserves below $70 is Biden's previous clear operation against oil prices. In fact, the trend is perfectly in line with this trading track. Judging from the current price structure, it seems to be a head-shoulder form waiting to be finished. If this is the case, it will take a long time to continue consolidation during the year, and the price center will still be around 83.
How to make a breakthrough later will need more fundamental or political factors to change before it can be determined.Assuming the Democrats win again, it is highly probable that the current thinking will continue at least for a period of time. But if the Republican Party wins, especially if Trump makes a comeback, we guess that the chances of lifting inflation in the early stage are slightly greater than that of suppressing inflation. In other words, in this situation, the oil price will break through the 100 mark.
In addition to American factors, OPEC's trading and possible major geopolitical factors in the Middle East cannot be completely ignored. Although these two variables are the factors that affect the price changes in the short and medium term in the past few years, the market can't run in a range forever, and it always needs to go out of a wave of continuous market in stages. When the market is faced with breakthrough choices, this kind of news-driven will bring twice the result with half the effort.
In terms of price orientation,Whether it is war or the interests of oil countries, price increase is definitely the only option.However, "boots landing is good and turning into bad" or "nothing can be done" will exert downward pressure on oil prices. Either way, we can't make an accurate judgment now, and we can only respond according to hot topics when the price is high and low.
From the perspective of trading, before the factual changes appear, mindless high throwing and low sucking is still the most mainstream choice. Don't enter the market too early, look for trading opportunities with high cost performance, and it is easy to get profits.Open positions below 70 to do more, take the new low as the stop loss point, and look at the axis on the upper side; Near 94/95, look for the possibility of shorting, break the stop loss, and look for the axis. When the final head and shoulder shape is completed, once the trend starts, take advantage of the trend.
The 2024 Outlook series has come to an end, and the Lunar New Year is coming soon. I wish everyone a smooth and profitable investment in the new year.
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