All eyes are on Nvidia. To say the pressure is on is an understatement to put it mildly. Having delivered stupendous numbers and guidance to set its shares on a rocket propelled course that other competitors have yet to match(Unless you are talking about SMCI which is like comparing apples and pears considering the product mix), there is only one other who dares challenge them in their moat.
I am talking AMD and maybe Intel although Intel has lots to do to catch up and with their hands full on driving up their foundries, I do not really see anyone else other than AMD challenging Nvidia's crown in AI.
Fundamentally wise, AMD is doing rather well. However, their numbers have not done enough to propel their shares and guidance given seemingly purposefully watered down to enable management to deliver abundantly in the near future. I believe AMD's Nvidia's moment is yet to be.
Even technical wise, Nvidia seems to have propelled ahead in structure as compared to AMD. They have matured into a third wave whereas AMD is still languishing in a B wave of its second.
Nvidia seems to be in wave 4 of a wave 5 of a big wave 3 in 5 wave impulse pattern stretching from 2020. The pattern seems incomplete without a wave 5 impulse upwards to complete it with targets around the 795 levels. The thing about wave 5s is they are not a sure thing. They can truncate and with such a highly anticipated earnings release coming up on the back of a relentless rally with multiple divergences around and narrow breadth, it is that unpredictable.
As such, I am riding out this rollercoaster. The risk rewards are not great. Even if earnings please the market and shares rally, the pattern is too mature to see another vertical rally upwards. The results will have to be mindblowing to alter the trajectory the technicals are taking now!
Hence, either Nvidia has topped and will enter its big wave 4 on the back of a truncated 5 wave pattern or it will enter its exhaustive 5th wave and then pull back into its big wave 4.
I believe the bottom of that big wave 4 is where the oppurtunity is, not at these time and price levels.
Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.
Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!
Stay safe! 😊
$Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$
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- Aqa·02-21Thanks for sharing about NVDA, AMD & INTC, Liked and shared.1Report