Xu Hongcai: China’s 2024 Economic Outlook
By Xu Hongcai
Deputy Director, Economic Policy Commission
The Chinese economy is expected to maintain steady growth in 2024, following the pattern observed in 2023 when it grew by 5.2%. China's economy played a significant role in global GDP growth, contributing over 30%. Looking ahead, it's anticipated that the Chinese premier will announce a growth target of around 5% for 2024 during the upcoming two sessions in March.
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Here are some key projections for 2024:
Economic Growth: Forecasted to be around 4.8%, with the potential to reach 5% if policies aimed at boosting growth prove effective.
Price Stability: Consumer and producer prices are expected to stabilize and show slight growth compared to the previous year, indicating potential increases in overall price levels and demand.
Employment: Continued improvement is expected in the employment landscape as economic activities return to normal and labor demand gradually rises.
International Payments: Pressure on the yuan's depreciation against the U.S. dollar and capital outflows may ease, leading to an improvement in the balance of international payments.
Investment and Consumption: Investment growth is targeted to increase to support economic stability, while consumption is expected to register stable growth, particularly in big-ticket items and digital consumption.
Foreign Trade: Despite a decrease in trade surplus, China's foreign trade is projected to grow in line with global trends, reaching approximately 3%.
Real Estate: The real estate sector will continue its adjustment process, with challenges such as high inventories and reduced market demand persisting.
Financial Market: Overall stability is expected in the financial market, with potential appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar and stable commodity prices.
In conclusion, proactive fiscal policies, prudent monetary policies, and a focus on innovation-driven high-quality development are vital for the Chinese economy's stabilization and enhancement in 2024.
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