What‘s The Gold's Next Move After Hitting A New Record High
When gold was in 1450 position, we had boldly assumed that the current bull market of gold could rise to 2200-2300.
At that time, many people didn't understand that the Federal Reserve was about to tighten at that time, and there was no reason for gold to enter a big bull market. However, the power of the market itself (graph) still proves that the real relationship between supply and demand has been included in the market. Now, with the new high coming earlier than expected, we need to consider whether 2300 will still be the upper limit of gold.
This is a picture that I like to show you in online and offline lectures over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have always been optimistic about gold. 2263 is the lowest bull market target price that gold can reach according to the percentage and extension, while the neutral level is around 2662. So the question now is how we should evaluate and calculate the goals according to the latest changes.
1618 is the starting position of the last rising market, and 2085 or 2152 have the opportunity to be the first high reference. I prefer the former because it is the previous historical high and double-headed suppression.
If this assumption holds, then $465 is the finished market. According to the normal proportion, the space of $750 will be the target after accelerating the rise from 1823, and it will be around 2575 in time. After peaking, the market will start a callback, and the higher probability will be a platform-type correction. The specific low point cannot be calculated yet, but it will not be lower than 2085.
After that, the market will enter the final rise and end this bull market. Therefore, based on the above judgment and calculation, we now believe that the neutral target price of gold price 2662 can be reached, and it is very likely that it will be higher than this price, reaching 2900 or higher.
In this way, it means that gold still has ample room and opportunities to rise in the medium and long term, and investors can reconsider the long-term layout (although we thought that the cost performance was relatively average).
However, the new difficulty will appear in how to "bargain-hunting" or find a really suitable low position to play the game. The ideal price may be below 2000, with the lowest price not lower than 1930, but it is not known whether the correction can be so deep at present. It can only be said that if the market gives opportunities to add positions and get on the bus, it can participate boldly.
As for the fundamental and news factors, as always, we don't think we need to consider too much in the big cycle of gold. The new data shows that the Fed will have a chance to cut interest rates in June, or hold on to some more, but it will not change the rolling wheel of gold. So can silver catch up with this good time? We'll talk about it next time.
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