To The Moon

In fact, since last year, the so-called computing power competition no longer uses nanometers as the criterion.

The performance improvement brought about by the advancement of manufacturing processes in the past five years will be visibly reduced, and the installed capacity will also go down as the replacement rate of mobile devices decreases. Why did this year the Android camp start to adopt the strategy of releasing new products twice a year? The main reason is to ship as much as possible before the curve becomes ugly.

As for desktop computing cores, the overall business direction (such as large models or AI) is to stack performance rather than optimize performance. The application cycle of accumulated computing power chips is calculated in several years. Short-term progress requires It will take some time in the future to be verified by the market, so the impact on most existing businesses will not be too great.$Apple(AAPL)$  Apple.US Starting from the M3 last year, it is actually impossible to maintain the significant performance difference of "one generation". In addition, the core team has recently begun to be involved in the wave of resignations. There is reason to believe that the next M4-M6 will be as small as today's iPhone. Iteration, the final 1-2nm process will inevitably fall into the dilemma of "no demand to support R&D" --- unless Apple itself is determined enough to let VP2-3 begin to smooth out the performance gap with MBP and become a quasi-professional level Spatial computing equipment.

The U.S.'s manufacturing process advantages$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$    now pose a relatively big problem for itself, that is, business development cannot keep up with technological development, and technological development cannot keep up with the development of hardware systems. Until now, the biggest winner on this issue is still just a hardware supplier, which is a very strange thing in any past industry.

Or put it this way, if even All-in companies like Microsoft.US are unable to commercialize AI in the next 3-5 years, then the debate about chips will become a chamber pot in Parliament, no. Just mention it.

Can you really detect any essential difference between Mate 60 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro?

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