To The Moon

Except for those categories that have been fluctuating for a long time, most assets that performed strongly in the first quarter or even set a new record high have experienced weak upside in the near future. Interestingly, the two leading brothers who lead the rise are unexpectedly in the same pace in the medium and long term. With the emergence of adjustment, compared with the rapid and rapid sharp drop, the way that may be buffered by time is also an option.

As we all know, NVIDIA is the standard-bearer of AI concept and the engine of the bull market of US stocks last year, and the crazy performance of Bitcoin in the past few months is obvious to all. Although there is a certain degree of correlation between the two, it is not difficult to find that such a high degree of positive correlation will definitely not be as simple as it seems.

From the perspective of conspiracy theory, Nvidia (US stock) and BTC are pioneers actively launched by the US government in the global economic order, leading capital and talents to flow to China. Through the control of technology and ETF concept, the hottest topics in the current market are under the control of the United States. If this assumption holds, then the next phase of the trend can be concluded: the Fed's interest rate cut is only a brand-name cover, and the real key hand will be the election results at the end of the year. Going down this line of thinking, we can know that the end of these two bull markets will not appear until at least after the end of the year. In this way, any significant and large-scale adjustment should be regarded as a good opportunity to do long and buy, and higher highs are still ahead.

After judging the general direction, the pattern and behavior at the bottom of the stage become a new topic. Considering the volatility of assets themselves, the old-fashioned US stock index must be less callback than new money such as Bitcoin, but when it stops falling still depends on the eyes of new money.

In fact, whether it is NVIDIA or BTC, this year's new high is driven by certain events, so we can take the news rising point (or the low point of the previous transaction) as a reference. For example, Nvidia's financial report starts from 750-800, which means that there may be about 10% room at the current price. The news of BTC runs through the first quarter relatively, but it can also be found that the core pullback/retracement price and breakthrough price are in the range of 59,000-50,000, and there is 10-20% floating space according to the current price. If the market chooses to fall sharply to achieve the downward target, it should decisively bargain-hunt and wait for the subsequent rise. If the market declines slowly and the long and short changes of hands are relatively sufficient, a platform may be formed, and then it can also intervene in different positions.

Just remember that most bull-to-bear turns are not done at abrupt highs, and many times they are driven by obvious political and economic news. Before the big external environment changes, the mode of slow rise and sharp fall will be effective. At the same time, callback buying will always provide a better risk-return ratio than chasing high trends.

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