To The Moon

Q4 Earnings Summary

This week wrapped up Q4 earning season. I’ll post a more fulsome recap later, but will give a short summary here. The TLDR for Q4 earnings is that “things aren’t getting worse, but not quite getting better yet.”

The below chart shows the percentage of companies beating / missing consensus estimates (with the line chart showing the median beat). As you can see, we’re still at slightly depressed values for both.

The next chart I wanted to show gives a quarterly summary of guidance raises / misses. The bars show the percent of companies guiding one quarter forward above / below consensus estimates, with the line showing the median raise / miss. As you can see, the median guide was in line with consensus.

And finally, and update to a chart I’ve consistently shared throughout earnings season - full year guides vs consensus estimates. For the majority of the software universe, Q4 earning season was not a catalyst for future forecasts to go up. Coming out of earnings season, full year consensus estimates will be slightly down for the software universe.

One positive has been the aggregate net new ARR growth in the quarter. We almost had an all time high quarter of net new ARR added (at least in the ~60 companies included in the below chart)

Quarterly Reports Summary

Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ $Veeva(VEEV)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$

Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement

$nCino(NCNO)$

Update on Multiples

SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue.

Overall Stats:

• Overall Median: 6.4x

• Top 5 Median: 17.8x

• 10Y: 4.2%

Bucketed by Growth. In the buckets below I consider high growth >27% projected NTM growth (I had to update this, as there’s only 1 company projected to grow >30% after this quarter’s earnings), mid growth 15%-27% and low growth <15%

• High Growth Median: 10.7x

• Mid Growth Median: 9.2x

• Low Growth Median: 4.5x

EV / NTM Rev / NTM Growth

The below chart shows the EV / NTM revenue multiple divided by NTM consensus growth expectations. So a company trading at 20x NTM revenue that is projected to grow 100% would be trading at 0.2x. The goal of this graph is to show how relatively cheap / expensive each stock is relative to their growth expectations

EV / NTM FCF

The line chart shows the median of all companies with a FCF multiple >0x and <100x. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

Companies with negative NTM FCF are not listed on the chart

Scatter Plot of EV / NTM Rev Multiple vs NTM Rev Growth

How correlated is growth to valuation multiple?

Operating Metrics

• Median NTM growth rate: 13%

• Median LTM growth rate: 17%

• Median Gross Margin: 75%

• Median Operating Margin (11%)

• Median FCF Margin: 11%

• Median Net Retention: 110%

• Median CAC Payback: 39 months

• Median S&M % Revenue: 41%

• Median R&D % Revenue: 25%

• Median G&A % Revenue: 16%

Comps Output

Rule of 40 shows rev growth + FCF margin (both LTM and NTM for growth + margins). FCF calculated as Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures

GM Adjusted Payback is calculated as: (Previous Q S&M) / (Net New ARR in Q x Gross Margin) x 12 . It shows the number of months it takes for a SaaS business to payback their fully burdened CAC on a gross profit basis. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Net new ARR is simply the ARR of the current quarter, minus the ARR of the previous quarter. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-32924-q4-earnings